Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 757
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 8, 2012, 10:44 AM CDT for 17 counties in Texas. It was in force for 61 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 8, 2012, 10:44 AM CDT (15:44 UTC)
- Expired
- May 8, 2012, 11:45 AM CDT
- In force
- 61 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 80%
Counties Bee County, TX, Brooks County, TX, Duval County, TX, Frio County, TX, Goliad County, TX, Jim Hogg County, TX, Jim Wells County, TX, Kleberg County, TX, La Salle County, TX, Live Oak County, TX, McMullen County, TX, Nueces County, TX, Refugio County, TX, San Patricio County, TX, Starr County, TX, Webb County, TX, Zapata County, TX
The radar
The Corpus Christi radar (KCRP), 124 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:44 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Corpus Christi, TX (KCRP), launched 12:00Z, 3.7 hours before the alert went out and 141 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 2526 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -5 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 573 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 42 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -53 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -3 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- -1.1
- Supercell composite
- -5.1
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
644
ACUS11 KWNS 081545
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081544
TXZ000-081645-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0757
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1044 AM CDT TUE MAY 08 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 081544Z - 081645Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...BUT
CURRENT INTENSIFICATION OF A STORM TO THE SOUTH OF LAREDO MAY
REQUIRE A WATCH SHORTLY.
DISCUSSION...WITHIN AN AREA LARGE-SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. CLOSED LOW AND UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH BAJA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY TOWARD
LOWER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS. ACTIVITY EAST OF THE RIVER HAS BEEN
GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE COOL SIDE OF A SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WITH RESIDUAL WARMER ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR STILL
INHIBITIVE OF BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH.
ADDITIONALLY...LATEST RAPID REFRESH IS SUGGESTIVE THAT LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION MAY WEAKEN ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
17-19Z...WHICH COULD RESULT IN DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
SO...NEAR TERM SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCLEAR.
HOWEVER...RECENT INTENSIFICATION OF A CELL IS UNDERWAY OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST OF LAREDO. THIS APPEARS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AND WEAK WESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW COULD
AID PROPAGATION INTO A DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE
RIVER...WHERE ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
WEAKENING OF INHIBITION AND FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
..KERR.. 05/08/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...
LAT...LON 28050007 28889910 28879808 28719713 27899710 27019753
26419815 26589924 26939993 27700012 28050007SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 7, 7:39 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Camp, Gregg, Harrison, Marion, Morris, Panola and 5 more | 4 hr |
| May 7, 7:54 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atascosa, Bandera, Bastrop, Bee, Bexar, Brazos and 40 more | 66 min |
| May 7, 9:15 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Camp, Cass, Gregg, Harrison, Marion, Morris and 6 more | 60 min |
| May 7, 9:46 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrews, Borden, Crane, Crockett, Dawson, Ector and 15 more | 89 min |
| May 8, 1:42 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atascosa, Bandera, Bexar, Comal, Dimmit, Edwards and 13 more | 93 min |
| May 8, 10:58 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Aransas, Atascosa, Bee, Brooks, Calhoun, Cameron and 28 more | 8 hr |
| May 8, 1:37 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brewster, Culberson, El Paso, Hudspeth, Jeff Davis, Presidio and 1 more | 113 min |
| May 8, 2:07 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Brewster, Culberson, El Paso, Hudspeth, Jeff Davis, Presidio | 7 hr |
| May 8, 3:03 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cameron, Hidalgo, Starr, Willacy | 87 min |
| May 8, 4:53 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brewster, Culberson, El Paso, Hudspeth, Jeff Davis, Presidio | 67 min |
| May 8, 5:47 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cameron, Hidalgo, Kenedy, Willacy | 58 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.