Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 755

May 7, 2012Eddy County, Lea County, New Mexico; 21 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 7, 2012, 8:46 PM MDT for Eddy County, Lea County, New Mexico; 21 counties in Texas. It was in force for 89 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 7, 2012, 8:46 PM MDT (02:46 UTC)
Expired
May 7, 2012, 10:15 PM MDT
In force
89 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 23 counties

Eddy County, NM, Lea County, NM, Andrews County, TX, Borden County, TX, Crane County, TX, Crockett County, TX, Dawson County, TX, Ector County, TX, Gaines County, TX, Glasscock County, TX, Howard County, TX, Irion County, TX, Loving County, TX, Martin County, TX, Midland County, TX, Pecos County, TX, Reagan County, TX, Reeves County, TX, Sterling County, TX, Terrell County, TX, Upton County, TX, Ward County, TX, Winkler County, TX

The radar

The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 55 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 00:00Z, 2.8 hours before the alert went out and 55 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Midland Regional, TX at 00:00Z on 2012-05-08Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 567 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Midland Regional, TX at 00:00Z on 2012-05-08The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -85 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
567 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-143 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1333 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
59 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-85 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
3 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
-0.1
Supercell composite
-2.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

516 
ACUS11 KWNS 080247
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080246
TXZ000-NMZ000-080415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0755
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0946 PM CDT MON MAY 07 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX...FAR SERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 264...

VALID 080246Z - 080415Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 264
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...WW 264 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 04Z...BUT ELEVATED TSTMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH A RISK
FOR AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THE NEED FOR AN EXTENSION OR
ADDITIONAL WW IS UNCERTAIN.

DISCUSSION...MOST INTENSE CORE WITHIN WW 264 WAS LOCATED IN GAINES
COUNTY TX WITH A HISTORY OF SEVERE HAIL. FARTHER SW...A BROKEN LINE
OF CELLS HAS INTENSIFIED OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR W TX WITH
FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT GIVEN POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW WITHIN
THE EXIT REGION OF A SUBTROPICAL JET OVER NRN MEXICO. GIVEN 40-50 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR...RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST
DURING THIS INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. LATEST NAM/HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. WITH TIME...CELL
MERGERS/INTERACTIONS SHOULD LEAD TO DIFFICULTY IN MAINTAINING
ELEVATED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND CONSEQUENTLY MORE MARGINAL HAIL
POTENTIAL GIVEN MODEST ELEVATED BUOYANCY WITH MUCAPE AROUND 1000
J/KG.

..GRAMS.. 05/08/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   32490471 32900383 33060306 32950221 32820154 32400099
            31380073 30530086 30010125 29810150 29840224 29870273
            30220314 32490471

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 8, 12:37 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDoña Ana, Grant, Luna, Otero, Sierra113 min
May 8, 1:07 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCatron, Doña Ana, Grant, Hidalgo, Luna, Otero and 2 more7 hr
May 8, 3:53 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCatron, Doña Ana, Grant, Hidalgo, Luna, Otero and 2 more67 min
May 7, 6:39 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCamp, Gregg, Harrison, Marion, Morris, Panola and 5 more4 hr
May 7, 6:54 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtascosa, Bandera, Bastrop, Bee, Bexar, Brazos and 40 more66 min
May 7, 8:15 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCamp, Cass, Gregg, Harrison, Marion, Morris and 6 more60 min
May 8, 12:42 AM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtascosa, Bandera, Bexar, Comal, Dimmit, Edwards and 13 more93 min
May 8, 9:44 AM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBee, Brooks, Duval, Frio, Goliad, Jim Hogg and 11 more61 min
May 8, 9:58 AM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAransas, Atascosa, Bee, Brooks, Calhoun, Cameron and 28 more8 hr
May 8, 2:03 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCameron, Hidalgo, Starr, Willacy87 min
May 8, 4:47 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCameron, Hidalgo, Kenedy, Willacy58 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.