Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 685

May 3, 201223 counties in Illinois; 11 counties in Iowa; 34 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 3, 2012, 6:42 PM CDT for 23 counties in Illinois; 11 counties in Iowa; 34 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 63 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 3, 2012, 6:42 PM CDT (23:42 UTC)
Expired
May 3, 2012, 7:45 PM CDT
In force
63 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 68 counties

Appanoose County, IA, Davis County, IA, Decatur County, IA, Des Moines County, IA, Henry County, IA, Lee County, IA, Page County, IA, Ringgold County, IA, Taylor County, IA, Van Buren County, IA, Wayne County, IA, Adams County, IL, Brown County, IL, Cass County, IL, DeWitt County, IL, Fulton County, IL, Greene County, IL, Hancock County, IL, Henderson County, IL, Knox County, IL, Logan County, IL, Mason County, IL, McDonough County, IL, McLean County, IL, Menard County, IL, Morgan County, IL, Peoria County, IL, Pike County, IL, Sangamon County, IL, Schuyler County, IL, Scott County, IL, Tazewell County, IL, Warren County, IL, Woodford County, IL, Adair County, MO, Andrew County, MO, Atchison County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Caldwell County, MO, Carroll County, MO, Chariton County, MO, Clark County, MO, Clinton County, MO, Daviess County, MO, DeKalb County, MO, Gentry County, MO, Grundy County, MO, Harrison County, MO, Holt County, MO, Knox County, MO, Lewis County, MO, Linn County, MO, Livingston County, MO, Macon County, MO, Marion County, MO, Mercer County, MO, Monroe County, MO, Nodaway County, MO, Pike County, MO, Putnam County, MO, Ralls County, MO, Randolph County, MO, Ray County, MO, Schuyler County, MO, Scotland County, MO, Shelby County, MO, Sullivan County, MO, Worth County, MO

The radar

The Quad Cities radar (KDVN), 176 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 12:00Z, 11.7 hours before the alert went out and 181 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2012-05-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2051 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2012-05-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 4 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2051 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-31 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
770 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
28 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
4 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
85 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
3.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

510 
ACUS11 KWNS 032343
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032342
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-040045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0685
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0642 PM CDT THU MAY 03 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL TO NRN MO AND FAR SRN IA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 232...

VALID 032342Z - 040045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 232 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...NEW WW PROPOSAL WILL BE COORDINATED SOON FOR AREAS W OF WW
232 AS TSTMS LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITHIN A DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ZONE/REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY INCREASED ALONG A REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR PIA W/SWWD TO NRN MO. AIR MASS S OF THIS
BOUNDARY IS STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 2500 TO 3500 J/KG AND
PARTIAL 00Z TOP/ILX/DVN RAOBS INDICATING MINIMAL MLCIN. TSTMS SHOULD
BLOSSOM WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR BY SUNSET AS THE LLJ INTENSIFIES THIS
EVENING. PRIMARY INITIAL THREATS SHOULD BE LARGE /POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT/ HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO
AN MCS APPEARS PLAUSIBLE WITH THE RISK TRANSITIONING TO DAMAGING
WINDS LATER THIS EVENING.

..GRAMS.. 05/03/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...

LAT...LON   41058999 40908894 40398868 39708918 39289029 39189309
            39399458 40349565 40709570 40949470 40939273 41019103
            41058999

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 3, 1:07 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBoone, Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Kane, Kendall and 5 more6 hr
May 3, 2:53 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoone, Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Kane, Lake and 3 more67 min
May 3, 3:53 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrown, Bureau, Cass, DeWitt, Fulton, Greene and 22 more37 min
May 3, 4:20 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBureau, Cass, Champaign, DeWitt, Ford, Fulton and 26 more8 hr
May 3, 6:22 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCook, DeKalb, DuPage, Kane, Kendall, Lake and 1 more23 min
May 3, 6:41 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBoone, Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Ford, Grundy and 12 more5 hr
May 2, 10:43 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHarrison, Monona, Plymouth, Sioux, Woodbury62 min
May 3, 12:50 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdams, Cass, Fremont, Mills, Montgomery, Page and 2 more4 hr
May 3, 3:05 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Adams, Cass, Clarke, Decatur, Montgomery and 4 more85 min
May 3, 2:12 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBuena Vista, Calhoun, Cerro Gordo, Cherokee, Clay, Dickinson and 18 more2 hr
May 3, 3:41 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Adams, Cass, Clarke, Fremont, Madison and 7 more2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.