Alert archive / Nebraska / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 669

May 2, 20125 counties in Iowa; 38 counties in Nebraska; Clay County, Union County, South Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 2, 2012, 10:43 PM CDT for 5 counties in Iowa; 38 counties in Nebraska; Clay County, Union County, South Dakota. It was in force for 62 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 2, 2012, 10:43 PM CDT (03:43 UTC)
Expired
May 2, 2012, 11:45 PM CDT
In force
62 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 45 counties

Harrison County, IA, Monona County, IA, Plymouth County, IA, Sioux County, IA, Woodbury County, IA, Adams County, NE, Boone County, NE, Burt County, NE, Butler County, NE, Cedar County, NE, Clay County, NE, Colfax County, NE, Cuming County, NE, Dakota County, NE, Dixon County, NE, Dodge County, NE, Douglas County, NE, Fillmore County, NE, Franklin County, NE, Hall County, NE, Hamilton County, NE, Howard County, NE, Jefferson County, NE, Kearney County, NE, Lancaster County, NE, Madison County, NE, Merrick County, NE, Nance County, NE, Nuckolls County, NE, Pierce County, NE, Platte County, NE, Polk County, NE, Saline County, NE, Sarpy County, NE, Saunders County, NE, Seward County, NE, Stanton County, NE, Thayer County, NE, Thurston County, NE, Washington County, NE, Wayne County, NE, Webster County, NE, York County, NE, Clay County, SD, Union County, SD

The radar

The Omaha radar (KOAX), 66 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Omaha, NE (KOAX), launched 00:00Z, 3.7 hours before the alert went out and 66 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Omaha, NE at 00:00Z on 2012-05-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2533 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Omaha, NE at 00:00Z on 2012-05-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 46 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2533 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-7 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1223 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
37 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
46 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
102 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.2
Supercell composite
1.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

709 
ACUS11 KWNS 030343
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030343 
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-030445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0669
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1043 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TO ERN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 226...

VALID 030343Z - 030445Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 226
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STRONGEST STORMS WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT TO PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL TO ERN NEB PORTIONS OF WW 226 THROUGH THE LATE EVENING/EARLY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

DISCUSSION...AT 0330Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED THE MOST
INTENSE TSTMS HAD REMAINED OVER SERN NEB /SERN HALL AND NERN ADAMS
COUNTIES INTO CLAY COUNTY/. TRENDS WITH THE STORM IN FILLMORE COUNTY
SUGGEST SOME WEAKENING...POTENTIALLY DUE TO A STRENGTHENING CAP NWD
FROM KS INTO SRN NEB GIVEN THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. 
OTHERWISE...THE STRONGER STORMS FROM CLAY COUNTY TO INVOF HSI MAY BE
JUST FAR ENOUGH N THAT THE STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ FROM OK TO ERN NEB
IS OFFSETTING THE CAP WITH A FEED OF MODERATE TO STRONG MUCAPE.

THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY EXTENDED FROM THE MID MO
VALLEY SWD TO CENTRAL KS...WHILE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-55 KT
OVER ERN NEB INTO SERN SD/WRN IA/SWRN MN IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL THREAT
FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH NWD EXTENT /INTO NERN NEB AND ADJACENT SERN
SD/NWRN IA/SWRN MN/ APPEARS LIMITED GIVEN ITS DISTANCE AWAY FROM
STRONGER LOW LEVEL INFLOW OVER SRN/SERN NEB.  THIS REASONING WOULD
PRECLUDE A NEW WW TO THE N/NE OF WW 226 AT THIS TIME.

..PETERS.. 05/03/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...

LAT...LON   40019737 40099929 41129873 42189784 42889712 43209669
            43179579 42489558 41429581 40479654 40019737

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 3, 12:50 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdams, Cass, Fremont, Mills, Montgomery, Page and 2 more4 hr
May 3, 3:05 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Adams, Cass, Clarke, Decatur, Montgomery and 4 more85 min
May 3, 2:12 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBuena Vista, Calhoun, Cerro Gordo, Cherokee, Clay, Dickinson and 18 more2 hr
May 3, 3:41 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Adams, Cass, Clarke, Fremont, Madison and 7 more2 hr
May 3, 6:42 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAppanoose, Davis, Decatur, Des Moines, Henry, Lee and 5 more63 min
May 2, 7:32 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdams, Antelope, Boone, Buffalo, Burt, Butler and 36 more6 hr
May 2, 7:20 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrown, Campbell, Corson, Day, Dewey, Edmunds and 11 more55 min
May 2, 11:06 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCodington, Day, Grant, Roberts24 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.