Alert archive / New Mexico / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 489

April 11, 20129 counties in Colorado; 15 counties in New Mexico

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 11, 2012, 1:05 PM MDT for 9 counties in Colorado; 15 counties in New Mexico. It was in force for 115 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Apr 11, 2012, 1:05 PM MDT (19:05 UTC)
Expired: Apr 11, 2012, 3:00 PM MDT
In force: 115 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 24 counties

Alamosa County, CO, Conejos County, CO, Costilla County, CO, Custer County, CO, Fremont County, CO, Huerfano County, CO, Las Animas County, CO, Otero County, CO, Pueblo County, CO, Chaves County, NM, Colfax County, NM, Curry County, NM, De Baca County, NM, Guadalupe County, NM, Harding County, NM, Lincoln County, NM, Mora County, NM, Otero County, NM, Quay County, NM, Roosevelt County, NM, San Miguel County, NM, Taos County, NM, Torrance County, NM, Union County, NM

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Albuquerq/Krtlnd, NM (KABQ), launched 12:00Z, 7.1 hours before the alert went out and 180 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 2082 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 33 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 161 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 166 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

756 
ACUS11 KWNS 111905
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111905 
COZ000-NMZ000-112100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0489
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 PM CDT WED APR 11 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM AND THE CO FRONT RANGE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 111905Z - 112100Z

A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW-END SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH EVENTUAL WW ISSUANCE POSSIBLE.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN OVERALL LACK OF CLOUD
COVER FROM THE CO FRONT RANGE SWD ACROSS ERN NM...S AND W OF A
BACKDOOR-TYPE FRONT EXTENDING NWWD OUT OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND INTO
SERN/E CENTRAL CO.  DAYTIME HEATING TO THE WARM SIDE OF THIS
BOUNDARY IS DRIVING STEADY DESTABILIZATION...WITH 500 TO 1500 J/KG
MIXED-LAYER CAPE NOW INDICATED.  SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
UNDERWAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT ATTM SHEAR REMAINS
WEAK...WITH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT STILL WELL TO THE W...SPREADING
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ATTM.

GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
DISORGANIZED...AND THEREFORE ONLY A VERY MARGINAL HAIL/WIND
POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS.  EVENTUALLY HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ADVANCING
SLOWLY EWD TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A LESS
ISOLATED/MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY SUPPORT WW
ISSUANCE BY LATE AFTERNOON.  MAIN SEVERE THREATS INVOF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL LIKELY BE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...WITH ANY
APPRECIABLE TORNADO POTENTIAL LIKELY TO REMAIN FARTHER E INVOF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE.

..GOSS.. 04/11/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   33030401 32460586 34290604 36050588 37390629 38590578
            38550473 38080383 37540325 34230315 33030401

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 11, 2:05 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Las Animas	25 min
Apr 11, 2:11 PM MDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Baca, Bent, Las Animas, Otero, Prowers	7 hr
Apr 11, 5:08 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Baca	97 min
Apr 11, 1:53 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Eddy, Otero	97 min
Apr 11, 2:43 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Chaves, Colfax, Curry, De Baca, Eddy, Guadalupe and 6 more	6 hr
Apr 11, 5:21 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Chaves, Curry, De Baca, Eddy, Guadalupe, Harding and 5 more	84 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2012 Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2012 Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.