Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 375

March 28, 201241 counties in Kansas; 7 counties in Missouri; 5 counties in Nebraska

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 28, 2012, 5:30 PM CDT for 41 counties in Kansas; 7 counties in Missouri; 5 counties in Nebraska. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 28, 2012, 5:30 PM CDT (22:30 UTC)
Expired
Mar 28, 2012, 7:30 PM CDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 53 counties

Allen County, KS, Anderson County, KS, Atchison County, KS, Bourbon County, KS, Brown County, KS, Chase County, KS, Clay County, KS, Cloud County, KS, Coffey County, KS, Crawford County, KS, Dickinson County, KS, Doniphan County, KS, Douglas County, KS, Franklin County, KS, Geary County, KS, Greenwood County, KS, Jackson County, KS, Jefferson County, KS, Jewell County, KS, Johnson County, KS, Leavenworth County, KS, Linn County, KS, Lyon County, KS, Marshall County, KS, Miami County, KS, Mitchell County, KS, Morris County, KS, Nemaha County, KS, Neosho County, KS, Osage County, KS, Ottawa County, KS, Pottawatomie County, KS, Republic County, KS, Riley County, KS, Shawnee County, KS, Smith County, KS, Wabaunsee County, KS, Washington County, KS, Wilson County, KS, Woodson County, KS, Wyandotte County, KS, Bates County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Cass County, MO, Clay County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Platte County, MO, Vernon County, MO, Franklin County, NE, Jefferson County, NE, Nuckolls County, NE, Thayer County, NE, Webster County, NE

The radar

The Topeka radar (KTWX), 14 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 12:00Z, 10.5 hours before the alert went out and 57 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Topeka, KS at 12:00Z on 2012-03-28Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 619 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Topeka, KS at 12:00Z on 2012-03-28The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 51 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
619 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-93 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
852 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
39 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
51 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
35 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
1.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

990 
ACUS11 KWNS 282231
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282230
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-290030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0375
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0530 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN NEB...MUCH OF NERN KS...NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 282230Z - 290030Z

AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A LARGE HAIL THREAT. DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO
BECOME POSSIBLE AND A WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED.

STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS E CNTRL
KS WHERE STRONG HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F HAVE
CONTRIBUTED TO 2000-3000 J/KG MUCAPE. CONVERGENCE ALONG A BROAD WARM
FRONT AND STEADY ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH 20 KT SWLY 850 MB
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW MORE STORMS TO FORM THIS EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AND LIFT FROM WARM ADVECTION MAY INCREASE OVER
NERN KS AND NWRN MO.

SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT STRONG BUT SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN
LOW LEVEL VEERING AND FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS IN PLACE. RATHER SLOW
MOVING SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...AND A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT COULD ARISE IF STORMS CAN CONGEAL INTO A SMALL
MCS.

..JEWELL.. 03/28/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   39329417 38579402 37729421 37349523 37779648 38399685
            39009762 39779933 40139933 40369882 40259707 40009591
            39759471 39329417

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 27, 8:43 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Douglas, Franklin, Jefferson, Johnson, Leavenworth and 2 more2 hr
Mar 28, 2:06 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Clay, Cloud, Dickinson, Douglas, Franklin and 21 more84 min
Mar 28, 5:48 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAnderson, Atchison, Brown, Clay, Cloud, Coffey and 23 more6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.