Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 373

March 28, 201227 counties in Kansas; Platte County, Missouri; Nuckolls County, Webster County, Nebraska

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 28, 2012, 2:06 PM CDT for 27 counties in Kansas; Platte County, Missouri; Nuckolls County, Webster County, Nebraska. It was in force for 84 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 28, 2012, 2:06 PM CDT (19:06 UTC)
Expired
Mar 28, 2012, 3:30 PM CDT
In force
84 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 30 counties

Atchison County, KS, Clay County, KS, Cloud County, KS, Dickinson County, KS, Douglas County, KS, Franklin County, KS, Geary County, KS, Jackson County, KS, Jefferson County, KS, Jewell County, KS, Johnson County, KS, Leavenworth County, KS, Lyon County, KS, Marshall County, KS, Miami County, KS, Mitchell County, KS, Morris County, KS, Nemaha County, KS, Osage County, KS, Ottawa County, KS, Pottawatomie County, KS, Republic County, KS, Riley County, KS, Shawnee County, KS, Wabaunsee County, KS, Washington County, KS, Wyandotte County, KS, Platte County, MO, Nuckolls County, NE, Webster County, NE

The radar

The Topeka radar (KTWX), 80 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:07 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 12:00Z, 7.1 hours before the alert went out and 125 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Topeka, KS at 12:00Z on 2012-03-28Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 619 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Topeka, KS at 12:00Z on 2012-03-28The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 51 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
619 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-93 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
852 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
39 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
51 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
35 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
1.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

692 
ACUS11 KWNS 281907
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281906
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-282030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0373
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0206 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SCNTRL NEB...NERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 281906Z - 282030Z

CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND A WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED BY 20-21Z.

LATEST VIS IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS AN EXPANDING CU FIELD WITHIN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF NRN KS.  THIS EXPANSION IS OCCURRING
COINCIDENT WITH AFTERNOON HEATING ALONG A WELL DEFINED SFC BOUNDARY
THAT IS DRAPED FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE MKC METRO AREA...NWWD TO NEAR
SLN.  LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT ELEVATED TSTMS OVER SRN NEB WILL
GRADUALLY EXPAND AND DEVELOP SEWD INTO NCNTRL KS AND BECOME ROOTED
IN HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS OVER NERN KS.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
CERTAINLY SUPPORT ORGANIZED ROTATING UPDRAFTS BUT STORM MOTIONS WILL
BE SLOW AND STORM MERGERS AND PROPAGATION SHOULD ENCOURAGE
DEVELOPMENT TOWARD THE METRO MKC AREA LATER THIS EVENING.  LARGE
HAIL IS THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK WITH THIS ACTIVITY...THOUGH EARLY
SUPERCELL STORM MODES COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

..DARROW.. 03/28/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   40269862 40099673 39349444 38279497 38519671 39359870
            40269862

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 27, 8:43 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Douglas, Franklin, Jefferson, Johnson, Leavenworth and 2 more2 hr
Mar 28, 5:30 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Anderson, Atchison, Bourbon, Brown, Chase and 35 more2 hr
Mar 28, 5:48 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAnderson, Atchison, Brown, Clay, Cloud, Coffey and 23 more6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.