Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 278

March 18, 20124 counties in Kansas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 18, 2012, 8:38 PM CDT for 4 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 67 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 18, 2012, 8:38 PM CDT (01:38 UTC)
Expired: Mar 18, 2012, 9:45 PM CDT
In force: 67 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Finney County, KS, Gray County, KS, Lane County, KS, Meade County, KS

The radar

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 49 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 00:00Z, 1.6 hours before the alert went out and 55 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1747 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -51 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 976 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 49 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 289 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 335 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 2.8
Supercell composite: 13.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

707 
ACUS11 KWNS 190138
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190138 
KSZ000-190245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0278
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0838 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 190138Z - 190245Z

A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS MAY EXIST WITH CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPING NWD THROUGH SWRN
KS. CAPPING ISSUES MAY ULTIMATELY LIMIT THE DURATION AND MAGNITUDE
OF THE OVERALL THREAT...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT INITIATED EARLIER ALONG THE DRYLINE HAVE
MOVED EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY INTO THE WARM SECTOR WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE
IN THE UPPER 50S. THE 00Z RAOB FROM DODGE CITY INDICATED MODERATE
INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE VERTICAL
WIND PROFILE WITH 50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR AND 300 M2/S2 0-1 KM STORM
RELATIVE HELICITY. THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUGGEST A TORNADO THREAT
IF STORMS WERE TO BECOME SURFACE BASED. HOWEVER...A CAPPING
INVERSION WAS ALSO INDICATED AROUND 800 MB...AND AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLS SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL STRENGTHEN. THE
INCREASINGLY HOSTILE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS ACTIVITY
WILL STRUGGLE TO BECOME SURFACE BASED WITH UPDRAFTS LIKELY REMAINING
ROOTED ABOVE THE CAPPING INVERSION...LIMITING THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT TO ISOLATED HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..DIAL.. 03/19/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   37030082 38890088 38880007 37040006 37030082

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 18, 11:37 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Clark, Ford, Gray, Meade, Seward	53 min
Mar 19, 3:34 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Barber, Cowley, Harper, Sedgwick, Sumner	86 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2012 Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.