Alert archive / Michigan / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 260
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 15, 2012, 5:44 PM EDT for 16 counties in Michigan. It was in force for 61 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 15, 2012, 5:44 PM EDT (21:44 UTC)
- Expired
- Mar 15, 2012, 6:45 PM EDT
- In force
- 61 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
Counties Genesee County, MI, Hillsdale County, MI, Ingham County, MI, Jackson County, MI, Lapeer County, MI, Lenawee County, MI, Livingston County, MI, Macomb County, MI, Monroe County, MI, Oakland County, MI, Saint Clair County, MI, Sanilac County, MI, Shiawassee County, MI, Tuscola County, MI, Washtenaw County, MI, Wayne County, MI
The radar
The Detroit radar (KDTX), 13 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 12:00Z, 9.7 hours before the alert went out and 13 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 2007 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -65 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 802 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 18 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 78 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 66 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
626
ACUS11 KWNS 152144
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152144
MIZ000-152245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0260
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0444 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 76...
VALID 152144Z - 152245Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 76
CONTINUES.
THREAT OF PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO
PERSISTS ACROSS THE WW AREA.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS ERN
MI...PRIMARILY ALONG:
1. A SWD SAGGING COLD FRONT NOTED FROM MANISTEE EWD TO BAD AXE
2. A SURFACE CONFLUENCE ZONE FROM SOUTH BEND NEWD TO BAD AXE
3. A SURFACE CONFLUENCE ZONE FROM NEAR TOLEDO NWD TO BAD AXE
ADDITIONALLY...A DISTINCT SUPERCELL HAS FORMED IN WASHTENAW COUNTY
NEAR A SURFACE LOW NOTED NEAR LANSING...WHERE SEVERAL OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED CONFLUENCE ZONES INTERSECT. HERE...ALTHOUGH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES REMAIN SOMEWHAT ON THE LOWER THRESHOLDS FOR
SUPERCELL FORMATION...LOCAL ENHANCEMENTS TO LOW-LEVEL SRH VALUES IN
ADDITION TO FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS HAVE COMPENSATED SUFFICIENTLY
AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ADDITIONALLY...AN AXIS
OF 60S F DEW POINTS REMAINS OVER THIS AREA...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
BE SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT NOTED ON THE 18Z DETROIT SOUNDING.
..HURLBUT.. 03/15/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...
LAT...LON 41748335 41878473 42498467 43258411 43758358 43898301
43508265 42958251 41748335SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 3:19 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Monroe | 86 min |
| Mar 15, 3:52 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bay, Genesee, Hillsdale, Ingham, Jackson, Lapeer and 12 more | 83 min |
| Mar 15, 4:28 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bay, Genesee, Huron, Lapeer, Lenawee, Livingston and 11 more | 7 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.