Alert archive / Ohio / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 255

March 15, 2012Monroe County, Michigan; 47 counties in Ohio

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 15, 2012, 3:19 AM EDT for Monroe County, Michigan; 47 counties in Ohio. It was in force for 86 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 15, 2012, 3:19 AM EDT (07:19 UTC)
Expired: Mar 15, 2012, 4:45 AM EDT
In force: 86 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 48 counties

Monroe County, MI, Allen County, OH, Ashland County, OH, Champaign County, OH, Clark County, OH, Coshocton County, OH, Crawford County, OH, Cuyahoga County, OH, Delaware County, OH, Erie County, OH, Fairfield County, OH, Fayette County, OH, Franklin County, OH, Guernsey County, OH, Hancock County, OH, Hardin County, OH, Henry County, OH, Hocking County, OH, Holmes County, OH, Huron County, OH, Knox County, OH, Licking County, OH, Logan County, OH, Lorain County, OH, Lucas County, OH, Madison County, OH, Marion County, OH, Medina County, OH, Morgan County, OH, Morrow County, OH, Muskingum County, OH, Ottawa County, OH, Perry County, OH, Pickaway County, OH, Pike County, OH, Portage County, OH, Richland County, OH, Ross County, OH, Sandusky County, OH, Seneca County, OH, Stark County, OH, Summit County, OH, Tuscarawas County, OH, Union County, OH, Vinton County, OH, Wayne County, OH, Wood County, OH, Wyandot County, OH

The radar

The Cleveland radar (KCLE), 124 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 00:00Z, 7.3 hours before the alert went out and 157 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 13 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -152 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2195 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 23 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 26 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 106 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

864 
ACUS11 KWNS 150720
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150719
OHZ000-MIZ000-150845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0255
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 AM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...OH/FAR SOUTHEAST MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 150719Z - 150845Z

BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ON AN ISOLATED BASIS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OH AND FAR SOUTHEAST MI. GIVEN
THE ANTICIPATED ISOLATED/MARGINAL NATURE OF THE HAIL THREAT...A
SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS UNLIKELY.

ELEVATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED/INCREASED SINCE 06Z ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN MI AND WESTERN OH...WITH THIS ACTIVITY OCCURRING ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF A STOUT CENTRAL CONUS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER/CAP. THE
PROXIMITY OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES...WELL IN EXCESS OF 7 DEG C PER
KM BETWEEN 700-500 MB PER THE LIKES OF 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM
LINCOLN IL/DETROIT MI/WILMINGTON OH/NASHVILLE TN...AND CONTINUED
MOIST ADVECTION ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
STRONGER ELEVATED CORES CAPABLE OF SPORADIC HAIL TO SEVERE LEVELS AS
STORMS SPREAD EASTWARD. HOWEVER...MODEST SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD
BEARING LAYER /TYPICALLY 30 KT OR LESS/ AMID RELATIVELY WEAK MID
LEVEL FLOW SHOULD YIELD A TENDENCY FOR STORM CLUSTERING AND EVENTUAL
UPDRAFT INTERFERENCE...WHICH SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THE
LONGEVITY/LIKELIHOOD OF INDIVIDUAL SEVERE-CALIBER UPDRAFTS WITH
TIME.

..GUYER.. 03/15/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...

LAT...LON   41988402 42318315 41318095 39648163 38988286 39128319
            40288420 41988402

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 15, 3:52 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bay, Genesee, Hillsdale, Ingham, Jackson, Lapeer and 12 more	83 min
Mar 15, 4:28 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Bay, Genesee, Huron, Lapeer, Lenawee, Livingston and 11 more	7 hr
Mar 15, 5:44 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Genesee, Hillsdale, Ingham, Jackson, Lapeer, Lenawee and 10 more	61 min
Mar 15, 4:44 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Butler, Clermont, Hamilton, Preble	61 min
Mar 15, 5:28 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Auglaize, Brown, Butler, Champaign, Clark, Clermont and 13 more	3 hr
Mar 15, 6:02 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allen, Defiance, Fulton, Henry, Lucas, Paulding and 4 more	2 hr
Mar 15, 7:23 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adams, Auglaize, Brown, Butler, Champaign, Clark and 12 more	97 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2012 Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2012 Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.