Alert archive / Florida / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 2189

December 20, 20124 counties in Alabama; 15 counties in Florida; 14 counties in Georgia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Dec 20, 2012, 8:49 AM CST for 4 counties in Alabama; 15 counties in Florida; 14 counties in Georgia. It was in force for 56 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Dec 20, 2012, 8:49 AM CST (14:49 UTC)
Expired
Dec 20, 2012, 9:45 AM CST
In force
56 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
80%
All 33 counties

Dale County, AL, Geneva County, AL, Henry County, AL, Houston County, AL, Bay County, FL, Calhoun County, FL, Franklin County, FL, Gadsden County, FL, Gulf County, FL, Holmes County, FL, Jackson County, FL, Jefferson County, FL, Leon County, FL, Liberty County, FL, Madison County, FL, Taylor County, FL, Wakulla County, FL, Walton County, FL, Washington County, FL, Baker County, GA, Brooks County, GA, Calhoun County, GA, Clay County, GA, Colquitt County, GA, Cook County, GA, Decatur County, GA, Early County, GA, Grady County, GA, Lowndes County, GA, Miller County, GA, Mitchell County, GA, Seminole County, GA, Thomas County, GA

The radar

The Tallahassee radar (KTLH), 64 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Tallahassee Rgnl, FL (KTLH), launched 12:00Z, 2.8 hours before the alert went out and 66 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tallahassee Rgnl, FL at 12:00Z on 2012-12-20Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Tallahassee Rgnl, FL at 12:00Z on 2012-12-20The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 200 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2063 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
43 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
200 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
202 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

361 
ACUS11 KWNS 201449
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201449 
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-201545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2189
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0849 AM CST THU DEC 20 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL...FL PANHANDLE...SWRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 201449Z - 201545Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TORNADO THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AS
MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS BEGINS TO SPREAD INLAND.  NWD EXTENT OF
THIS RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE THE GREATEST LIMITING
FACTOR IN SEVERE POTENTIAL.

DISCUSSION...BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS IS SLOWLY RECOVERING ACROSS THE
FL PANHANDLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE SFC DEW POINTS ARE
NOW RISING THROUGH THE MID 60S.  AS THIS AIRMASS SPREADS INLAND
INCREASING BUOYANCY SHOULD ENHANCE THE PROSPECT FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS
WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.

UPSTREAM...ZONE OF MULTI-BANDED PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS IS PROGRESSING ACROSS AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE INTO THIS
RECOVERING AIRMASS.  FOR THIS REASON A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.

..DARROW/CORFIDI.. 12/20/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   31888519 31068314 29608346 29648538 30788647 31888519

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 20, 4:08 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChoctaw, Colbert, Fayette, Franklin, Greene, Lamar and 5 more67 min
Dec 20, 4:23 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCAutauga, Baldwin, Barbour, Bibb, Bullock, Butler and 34 more9 hr
Dec 20, 7:09 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAutauga, Baldwin, Bibb, Butler, Chilton, Choctaw and 22 more96 min
Dec 20, 9:19 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCCoffee, Dale, Geneva, Henry, Houston9 hr
Dec 20, 9:56 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAutauga, Baldwin, Bibb, Butler, Chambers, Chilton and 22 more64 min
Dec 20, 1:31 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarbour, Coffee, Dale, Geneva, Henry, Houston and 1 more59 min
Dec 20, 5:22 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlachua, Baker, Bradford, Clay, Columbia, Dixie and 7 more53 min
Dec 20, 11:24 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaldwin, Bibb, Bleckley, Butts, Chattahoochee, Coweta and 36 more66 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.