Alert archive / Tennessee / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 2172

December 17, 2012Lauderdale County, Alabama; 4 counties in Mississippi; 18 counties in Tennessee

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Dec 17, 2012, 1:24 PM CST for Lauderdale County, Alabama; 4 counties in Mississippi; 18 counties in Tennessee. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Dec 17, 2012, 1:24 PM CST (19:24 UTC)
Expired
Dec 17, 2012, 3:30 PM CST
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
20%
All 23 counties

Lauderdale County, AL, Alcorn County, MS, Benton County, MS, Tippah County, MS, Tishomingo County, MS, Bedford County, TN, Chester County, TN, Coffee County, TN, Decatur County, TN, Giles County, TN, Grundy County, TN, Hardeman County, TN, Hardin County, TN, Lawrence County, TN, Lewis County, TN, Lincoln County, TN, Marshall County, TN, Maury County, TN, McNairy County, TN, Moore County, TN, Perry County, TN, Warren County, TN, Wayne County, TN

The radar

The Nashville radar (KOHX), 153 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:26 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 7.4 hours before the alert went out and 142 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Nashville Metro, TN at 12:00Z on 2012-12-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 100 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Nashville Metro, TN at 12:00Z on 2012-12-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 91 square meters per square second.1939587897117136156175Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
100 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-5 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
447 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
78 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
91 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
185 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

725 
ACUS11 KWNS 171925
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171924
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-172130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2172
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0124 PM CST MON DEC 17 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN TN...NRN MS...NRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 171924Z - 172130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT MAY OCCUR SOUTH OF WW 683 THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH ANY SVR THREAT EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL/SPORADIC...
THE ISSUANCE OF A NEW WW IS UNLIKELY...THOUGH WW 683 MAY BE EXPANDED
SWD ACROSS PARTS OF MIDDLE TN.

DISCUSSION...WITH THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE THAT
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...ISOLATED STORMS MAY
CONTINUE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF WW 683. MARGINAL INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH STRONG DEEP SHEAR MAY SUPPORT OCCASIONALLY ORGANIZED...
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES. MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WIND CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS...THOUGH THE LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND LACK OF STRONGER DEEP ASCENT WILL MITIGATE THE SVR
THREAT. REGARDLESS...SHOULD A MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT APPEAR TO
EVOLVE ACROSS SRN MIDDLE TN -- IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE STRONGER
ASCENT -- WW 683 MAY BE EXPANDED SWD.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 12/17/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   35018956 35338905 35708826 35768686 35748588 35738554
            35298575 34788711 34668826 34728924 35018956

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 17, 4:16 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaldwin, Escambia, Mobile119 min
Dec 17, 10:49 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHouston116 min
Dec 17, 11:03 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Cannon, Cheatham, Clay, Davidson, DeKalb and 19 more117 min
Dec 17, 11:26 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBenton, Cannon, Cheatham, Clay, Cumberland, Davidson and 22 more6 hr
Dec 17, 12:58 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Cannon, Cheatham, Clay, Cumberland, Davidson and 21 more92 min
Dec 17, 3:42 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Cannon, Cheatham, Clay, Davidson, DeKalb and 20 more93 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.