Alert archive / Arkansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 1893
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 5, 2012, 2:13 PM CDT for 5 states. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 5, 2012, 2:13 PM CDT (19:13 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 5, 2012, 4:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
All 55 counties
Baxter County, AR, Clay County, AR, Cleburne County, AR, Craighead County, AR, Fulton County, AR, Greene County, AR, Independence County, AR, Izard County, AR, Jackson County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Marion County, AR, Mississippi County, AR, Poinsett County, AR, Randolph County, AR, Sharp County, AR, Stone County, AR, Alexander County, IL, Massac County, IL, Pulaski County, IL, Ballard County, KY, Calloway County, KY, Carlisle County, KY, Fulton County, KY, Graves County, KY, Hickman County, KY, Marshall County, KY, McCracken County, KY, Bollinger County, MO, Butler County, MO, Cape Girardeau County, MO, Carter County, MO, Dunklin County, MO, Howell County, MO, Mississippi County, MO, New Madrid County, MO, Oregon County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Pemiscot County, MO, Ripley County, MO, Scott County, MO, Shannon County, MO, Stoddard County, MO, Wayne County, MO, Carroll County, TN, Crockett County, TN, Dyer County, TN, Gibson County, TN, Haywood County, TN, Henderson County, TN, Henry County, TN, Lake County, TN, Lauderdale County, TN, Madison County, TN, Obion County, TN, Weakley County, TN
The radar
The Memphis radar (KNQA), 131 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 12:00Z, 7.2 hours before the alert went out and 186 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1178 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -111 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1655 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 15 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 19 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 18 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
410
ACUS11 KWNS 051913
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051913
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-052115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1893
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 PM CDT WED SEP 05 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO...NERN AR...WRN KY AND TN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 051913Z - 052115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A FEW CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM SRN MO INTO NRN AR...WITH
LOCALIZED SEVERE HAIL AND WIND.
DISCUSSION...SURFACE MAP SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN MO
INTO SRN IL...AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL TCU ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE STRONG HEATING PERSISTS. TALL/MOIST CAPE
PROFILES WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL FAVOR A FEW WET
MICROBURSTS...AND A SOME CELLS MAY PROPAGATE IN A SEWD
DIRECTION...POSSIBLY SHOWING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS AT TIMES WITH
LARGE HAIL OF 1.00" TO 1.75" DIAMETER.
..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 09/05/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...
LAT...LON 35518942 35479162 35709237 36339274 36809257 37099211
37159144 37349051 37438976 37448918 37328864 36878828
36348812 35958824 35658837 35518942SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2:29 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Clay, Craighead, Fulton, Greene, Independence, Izard and 6 more | 8 hr |
| Sep 5, 5:31 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Crittenden, Cross, Mississippi, Poinsett | 89 min |
| Sep 4, 8:30 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Jo Daviess | 60 min |
| Sep 4, 8:51 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Boone, Carroll, Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy and 13 more | 5 hr |
| Sep 5, 1:14 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Carroll, Henry, Jo Daviess, Rock Island, Stephenson, Whiteside and 1 more | 91 min |
| Sep 5, 3:43 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Boone, Bureau, Carroll, DeKalb, Grundy, Henderson and 21 more | 92 min |
| Sep 5, 9:04 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alexander, Bond, Clark, Clay, Clinton, Crawford and 28 more | 86 min |
| Sep 5, 9:37 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bond, Clark, Clay, Clinton, Coles, Crawford and 24 more | 6 hr |
| Sep 5, 1:10 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Gallatin, Hardin, Johnson, Massac, Pope | 65 min |
| Sep 5, 1:43 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Hardin | 5 hr |
| Sep 5, 4:02 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Boone, Carroll, Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Jo Daviess and 7 more | 88 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.