Alert archive / Iowa / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 1886

September 4, 201218 counties in Iowa; 7 counties in Minnesota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 4, 2012, 9:51 PM CDT for 18 counties in Iowa; 7 counties in Minnesota. It was in force for 54 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Sep 4, 2012, 9:51 PM CDT (02:51 UTC)
Expired
Sep 4, 2012, 10:45 PM CDT
In force
54 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 25 counties

Buena Vista County, IA, Calhoun County, IA, Cerro Gordo County, IA, Clay County, IA, Dickinson County, IA, Emmet County, IA, Franklin County, IA, Hamilton County, IA, Hancock County, IA, Humboldt County, IA, Kossuth County, IA, Palo Alto County, IA, Pocahontas County, IA, Sac County, IA, Webster County, IA, Winnebago County, IA, Worth County, IA, Wright County, IA, Blue Earth County, MN, Cottonwood County, MN, Faribault County, MN, Freeborn County, MN, Jackson County, MN, Martin County, MN, Watonwan County, MN

The radar

The Des Moines radar (KDMX), 170 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 00:00Z, 2.9 hours before the alert went out and 205 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Minneapolis, MN at 00:00Z on 2012-09-05Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Minneapolis, MN at 00:00Z on 2012-09-05The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 4 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
3109 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
31 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
4 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
63 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

845 
ACUS11 KWNS 050252
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050251
IAZ000-MNZ000-050345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1886
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0951 PM CDT TUE SEP 04 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IA THROUGH SRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 615...

VALID 050251Z - 050345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 615
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NRN IA AND SRN MN WITH
A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND NEXT FEW HOURS. STORMS WILL
APPROACH THE ERN BOUNDARY OF WW 615 BY 330Z...AND IF INTENSITIES ARE
MAINTAINED A NEW WW WILL PROBABLY BE REQUIRED.

DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE EVOLVED INTO A LINE THAT IS MOVING EWD AT
30-35 KT. THE ACTIVITY IS EMBEDDED WITH 40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND
ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT THE STABILIZING SFC LAYER MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A SLOW
DECREASE IN OVERALL STORM INTENSITIES. HOWEVER...SELY BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS AND SLY LLJ WILL MAINTAIN INFLOW FROM UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR...AND STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO FORWARD PROPAGATE ALONG
INSTABILITY GRADIENT NEXT FEW HOURS. PRIMARY THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND...BUT HAIL ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE.

..DIAL.. 09/05/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON   42349542 43259537 44009541 44129377 43559320 42349328
            42349542

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 4, 7:27 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBuena Vista, Cherokee, Clay, Dickinson, Lyon, O'Brien and 3 more63 min
Sep 4, 7:45 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBuena Vista, Cherokee, Clay, Dickinson, Ida, Lyon and 5 more6 hr
Sep 4, 8:30 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllamakee, Black Hawk, Bremer, Buchanan, Butler, Chickasaw and 8 more60 min
Sep 4, 8:51 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBuchanan, Clinton, Delaware, Dubuque, Jackson, Jones5 hr
Sep 4, 10:19 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBlack Hawk, Bremer, Butler, Calhoun, Cerro Gordo, Emmet and 14 more5 hr
Sep 4, 11:16 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAllamakee, Chickasaw, Clayton, Fayette, Floyd, Howard and 2 more4 hr
Sep 5, 1:14 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllamakee, Audubon, Benton, Black Hawk, Boone, Bremer and 54 more91 min
Sep 5, 3:43 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Cedar, Clinton, Des Moines, Dubuque, Henry and 14 more92 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.