Alert archive / Iowa / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 1884

September 4, 20129 counties in Iowa; 6 counties in Minnesota; 8 counties in South Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 4, 2012, 7:27 PM CDT for 9 counties in Iowa; 6 counties in Minnesota; 8 counties in South Dakota. It was in force for 63 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Sep 4, 2012, 7:27 PM CDT (00:27 UTC)
Expired
Sep 4, 2012, 8:30 PM CDT
In force
63 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
80%
All 23 counties

Buena Vista County, IA, Cherokee County, IA, Clay County, IA, Dickinson County, IA, Lyon County, IA, O'Brien County, IA, Osceola County, IA, Plymouth County, IA, Sioux County, IA, Cottonwood County, MN, Jackson County, MN, Murray County, MN, Nobles County, MN, Pipestone County, MN, Rock County, MN, Clay County, SD, Lake County, SD, Lincoln County, SD, McCook County, SD, Minnehaha County, SD, Moody County, SD, Turner County, SD, Union County, SD

The radar

The Sioux Falls radar (KFSD), 55 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:29 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Omaha, NE (KOAX), launched 00:00Z, 0.5 hours before the alert went out and 217 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Omaha, NE at 00:00Z on 2012-09-05Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2236 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Omaha, NE at 00:00Z on 2012-09-05The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 37 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2236 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-21 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2432 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
29 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
37 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
172 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
7.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

825 
ACUS11 KWNS 050028
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050027
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-050130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1884
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0727 PM CDT TUE SEP 04 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...NERN NEB...NWRN IA AND SWRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 050027Z - 050130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND AND LARGE HAIL AS THEY DEVELOP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SERN SD
AND NE NEB...EVENTUALLY INTO SWRN MN AND NWRN IA. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOON.

DISCUSSION...STORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG DRYLINE PERSIST ACROSS SERN
SD INTO NERN NEB. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A LEAD IMPULSE DROPPING SEWD
THROUGH SD...AND VWP DATA INDICATES THERE HAS BEEN SOME RESPONSE TO
THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES WITH SIOUX FALLS VWP NOW INDICATING A
MORE WELL DEFINED WARM ADVECTION PROFILE. AS SWLY LLJ
STRENGTHENS...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING EWD ALONG
INSTABILITY GRADIENT THROUGH SERN SD...NWRN IA AND SWRN MN. SHEAR
PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES...BUT SOME UPSCALE GROWTH INTO LINES AND CLUSTERS MAY
ALSO OCCUR. GIVEN THE LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS...PRIMARY
THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.

..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 09/05/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON   42389649 43449749 44379730 44349478 42689472 42389649

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 4, 7:45 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBuena Vista, Cherokee, Clay, Dickinson, Ida, Lyon and 5 more6 hr
Sep 4, 8:30 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllamakee, Black Hawk, Bremer, Buchanan, Butler, Chickasaw and 8 more60 min
Sep 4, 8:51 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBuchanan, Clinton, Delaware, Dubuque, Jackson, Jones5 hr
Sep 4, 9:51 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBuena Vista, Calhoun, Cerro Gordo, Clay, Dickinson, Emmet and 12 more54 min
Sep 4, 10:19 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBlack Hawk, Bremer, Butler, Calhoun, Cerro Gordo, Emmet and 14 more5 hr
Sep 4, 11:16 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAllamakee, Chickasaw, Clayton, Fayette, Floyd, Howard and 2 more4 hr
Sep 5, 1:14 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllamakee, Audubon, Benton, Black Hawk, Boone, Bremer and 54 more91 min
Sep 5, 3:43 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Cedar, Clinton, Des Moines, Dubuque, Henry and 14 more92 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.