Alert archive / Mississippi / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 1836

August 29, 2012Baldwin County, Mobile County, Washington County, Alabama; 18 parishes in Louisiana; 30 counties in Mississippi

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 29, 2012, 8:21 PM CDT for Baldwin County, Mobile County, Washington County, Alabama; 18 parishes in Louisiana; 30 counties in Mississippi. It was in force for 84 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 29, 2012, 8:21 PM CDT (01:21 UTC)
Expired
Aug 29, 2012, 9:45 PM CDT
In force
84 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 51 counties

Baldwin County, AL, Mobile County, AL, Washington County, AL, Ascension Parish, LA, East Baton Rouge Parish, LA, East Feliciana Parish, LA, Iberville Parish, LA, Jefferson Parish, LA, Livingston Parish, LA, Orleans Parish, LA, Plaquemines Parish, LA, Pointe Coupee Parish, LA, Saint Bernard Parish, LA, Saint Charles Parish, LA, Saint Helena Parish, LA, Saint John the Baptist Parish, LA, Saint Tammany Parish, LA, Tangipahoa Parish, LA, Washington Parish, LA, West Baton Rouge Parish, LA, West Feliciana Parish, LA, Adams County, MS, Amite County, MS, Claiborne County, MS, Clarke County, MS, Copiah County, MS, Covington County, MS, Forrest County, MS, Franklin County, MS, George County, MS, Greene County, MS, Hancock County, MS, Harrison County, MS, Jackson County, MS, Jasper County, MS, Jefferson County, MS, Jefferson Davis County, MS, Jones County, MS, Lamar County, MS, Lawrence County, MS, Lincoln County, MS, Marion County, MS, Pearl River County, MS, Perry County, MS, Pike County, MS, Simpson County, MS, Smith County, MS, Stone County, MS, Walthall County, MS, Wayne County, MS, Wilkinson County, MS

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Slidell Radar S, LA (KSIL), launched 00:00Z, 1.4 hours before the alert went out and 35 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Slidell Radar S, LA at 00:00Z on 2012-08-30Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 408 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Slidell Radar S, LA at 00:00Z on 2012-08-30The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 299 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
408 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
464 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
55 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
299 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
301 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.8
Supercell composite
6.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

721 
ACUS11 KWNS 300121
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300121 
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-300245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1836
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0821 PM CDT WED AUG 29 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SE LA...SRN MS...SW AL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 595...

VALID 300121Z - 300245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 595 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS SE LA...SRN
MS AND SW AL LATE THIS EVENING. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY
DEVELOP NWD WITH ROTATING STORMS THAT PERSIST WITHIN THE BANDS OF
ISAAC.

DISCUSSION...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC IS CURRENTLY JUST
SOUTH OF BATON ROUGE AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECASTS THE
SYSTEM TO CONTINUE MOVING NWWD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING.
RAINBANDS EXTEND FROM 175 TO 200 STATUTE MILES TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CENTER. MESOANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS THE AXIS OF STRONGEST
LOW-LEVEL WINDS WRAPPING EWD AND SWD ACROSS THE NERN QUADRANT OF
ISAAC ABOUT 100 STATUTE MILES AWAY FROM THE CENTER. THIS IS CREATING
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WHICH IS SAMPLED WELL BY THE NEW ORLEANS 00Z
SOUNDING WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES OF 300 TO 325 M2/S2.
THIS COMBINED WITH LCL HEIGHTS VERY CLOSE TO GROUND LEVEL AND SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S F SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
LOW-ROTATING CLOUD BASES AND TORNADO FORMATION. THE GREATEST CHANCE
FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH INDIVIDUAL CELL
ELEMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE MORE INTENSE RAINBANDS TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER OF ISAAC.

..BROYLES.. 08/30/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   28868871 28668896 28648931 28608959 28888982 28789008
            29099011 29189001 29329018 29329001 29459014 29629018
            29729034 29919063 30169067 30099118 30139147 30449174
            30839182 31069169 30989159 31189162 31299161 31269147
            31409154 31459149 31559149 31549140 31619152 31629139
            31839136 31819125 32009108 32069115 32229071 32049069
            32048973 32238973 32238844 31718846 31708810 31588810
            31548794 31298791 31108795 31298777 31308760 30998759
            30818760 30648738 30458742 30298749 30328723 29968713
            29838818 29898826 29858845 29608853 29418867 29138860
            28868871

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 29, 11:06 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaldwin, Mobile, Washington84 min
Aug 29, 11:42 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCMobile, Washington8 hr
Aug 30, 3:18 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaldwin, Butler, Choctaw, Clarke, Coffee, Conecuh and 7 more117 min
Aug 30, 6:33 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaldwin, Butler, Choctaw, Clarke, Coffee, Conecuh and 13 more117 min
Aug 30, 7:13 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCAutauga, Baldwin, Butler, Choctaw, Clarke, Conecuh and 15 more9 hr
Aug 30, 12:57 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaldwin, Butler, Choctaw, Clarke, Conecuh, Dallas and 8 more93 min
Aug 30, 3:56 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCChoctaw, Greene, Sumter, Washington6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Louisiana, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.