Mesoscale Discussion 1616

Issued

Jul 26, 2012, 7:28 PM EDT (23:28 UTC)

Expired

Jul 26, 2012, 9:00 PM EDT

In force

92 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Brookhaven radar (KOKX), 74 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

215 
ACUS11 KWNS 262328
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262328 
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-270100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1616
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0628 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...GREATER NYC METRO AREA/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
NJ/FAR EASTERN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 527...

VALID 262328Z - 270100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 527
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM WATCH 527 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z...WITH
APPRECIABLE SHORT-TERM CONCERN FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS INTO
THE GREATER NYC METRO AREA/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF NJ WITH
AN ONGOING SEVERE MCS/DERECHO. AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED FOR A PART OF SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND INCLUDING RHODE
ISLAND/SOUTHEAST MA.

DISCUSSION...WELL-ORGANIZED/MATURE WIND-PRODUCING BOW ECHO/DERECHO
CONTINUES TO QUICKLY RACE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
NY/SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND AND PA/NJ BORDER VICINITY AS OF 2320Z. A 51
KT WIND GUST WAS MEASURED WITHIN THE PAST HOUR /2230Z/ AT
NEWBURGH/STEWART NY. A WELL-ORGANIZED COLD POOL...WITH 20+ DEG F
TEMPERATURE DEFICITS AND +3 MB/2 HR PRESSURE RISES...REMAINS READILY
EVIDENT ACROSS EASTERN PA AS OF 23Z....WITH QLCS WAKE/REAR INFLOW
WINDS ALSO EVIDENT IN WSR-88D VWPS. GIVEN THESE STORM-SCALE
FACTORS/TRENDS...APPRECIABLE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE FOR CORRIDORS
OF WIND DAMAGE INTO THE GREATER NYC METRO AREA/NJ AND SOUTHWEST NEW
ENGLAND WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM /80S F AS OF 23Z/.

WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR ASYMMETRIC/BOOKEND EVOLUTIONS ON THE
NORTH END OF THE QLCS...SOME SEVERE WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP
EAST/PERHAPS NORTHEASTWARD INTO ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND SUCH AS RI/SOUTHEAST MA. EVEN WITH COOLER/MARINE
INFLUENCES...FACTORS SUCH AS EXISTING ORGANIZATION OF THE QLCS AND
THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT/SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW COULD
PROMPT AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE PENDING SHORT-TERM CONVECTIVE
TRENDS.

..GUYER.. 07/26/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...CTP...

LAT...LON   40087617 40627528 41217461 41377412 41607413 42087408
            42217257 42107072 41646999 40757235 39457410 40087617

Mesoscale Discussions in New Jersey, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Connecticut, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.