Mesoscale Discussion 1599

Issued

Jul 26, 2012, 4:31 AM EDT (08:31 UTC)

Expired

Jul 26, 2012, 6:00 AM EDT

In force

89 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Chance of a watch

20%

The Pittsburgh radar (KPBZ), 101 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

762 
ACUS11 KWNS 260831
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260831 
PAZ000-NYZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-261000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1599
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 AM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY...NRN AND WRN PA...NRN WV INCLUDING THE NRN
PANHANDLE AND FAR ERN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 260831Z - 261000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS WRN
NY AND INTO NWRN PA TO FAR NERN OH AS A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS
CONTINUES TO EMERGE INTO THE LEE SIDE OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS MORNING.  FARTHER S...ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR STRONGER WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ELEVATED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER SERN OH INTO
PARTS OF WRN PA AND NRN WV.

DISCUSSION...AT 0825Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROKEN LINE
OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM WAYNE COUNTY NY SWWD TO 30 S BUF AND INTO
SERN PARTS OF LAKE ERIE.  THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
ESEWD INTO WRN NY...NWRN-NRN PA AND FAR NERN OH EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT SHOULD HAVE A SLOWER MOVEMENT...AND THUS LOWER THREAT
FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS.  WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND GIVEN THAT
THE LINE OF STORMS IS ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE LLJ EXTENDING
FROM IND INTO CENTRAL PA SUGGESTS AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS.

MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL STORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER ERN OH BETWEEN
05-07Z AND CONTINUED TO MOVE INTO WRN/SWRN PA...NRN WV AND SERN OH
AT 08Z.  THIS LATTER ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE FORMING ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE RETURN AND ERN EXTENT OF STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES.  A 40 KT WSWLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM IND INTO CENTRAL PA
WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION /MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG/...SUPPORTING
ADDITIONAL TSTMS INTO THE MORNING. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 KT
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A MULTICELL STORM MODE.  WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THE HAIL THREAT...WHILE AN ISOLATED
STRONGER WIND GUST IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF 40 KT WSWLY
WINDS AT 0.5 KM AGL.

..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 07/26/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...

LAT...LON   40558069 41328035 41878092 42417960 42817802 43027700
            42497652 41377699 40627860 39487958 39048057 39088154
            40558069

Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in West Virginia, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.