Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 1597
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 26, 2012, 1:15 AM EDT for 10 counties in New York; 11 counties in Ohio; 12 counties in Pennsylvania. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 26, 2012, 1:15 AM EDT (05:15 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 26, 2012, 3:15 AM EDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 60%
All 33 counties
Allegany County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Livingston County, NY, Ontario County, NY, Steuben County, NY, Wyoming County, NY, Yates County, NY, Ashtabula County, OH, Columbiana County, OH, Cuyahoga County, OH, Geauga County, OH, Lake County, OH, Mahoning County, OH, Medina County, OH, Portage County, OH, Stark County, OH, Summit County, OH, Trumbull County, OH, Butler County, PA, Clarion County, PA, Crawford County, PA, Elk County, PA, Erie County, PA, Forest County, PA, Lawrence County, PA, McKean County, PA, Mercer County, PA, Potter County, PA, Venango County, PA, Warren County, PA
The radar
The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 129 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Pittsburgh, PA (KPIT), launched 00:00Z, 5.3 hours before the alert went out and 176 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2457 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 48 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 82 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 169 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
705
ACUS11 KWNS 260515
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260515
NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-260715-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1597
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 AM CDT THU JUL 26 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHERN OH/NORTHWEST PA/WESTERN NY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 260515Z - 260715Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN OH AND /MORE SO/
NORTHWEST PA AND WESTERN NY OVERNIGHT. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...A QUASI-LINEAR MCS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/EXPAND AND
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LOWER MI/SOUTHERN ONTARIO
AS OF 05Z. THIS ACTIVITY SEEMS LIKELY TO PERSIST EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT WITHIN A BELT OF MODERATELY STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL
FLOW...POTENTIALLY INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN OH/NORTHWEST PA/WESTERN
NY...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 07Z-08Z NEAR THE LOWER LAKES. PRECEDING THE
MCS...IT IS YET RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE AS PER THE 00Z OBSERVED
SOUNDING FROM BUFFALO/PITTSBURGH. HOWEVER...A WARM FRONT CONTINUES
TO STEADILY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST WITH AID OF A 30-40 KT
LOW LEVEL JET PER REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS ACROSS INDIANA/OH/MI...WITH
THE CONTINUED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ADVECTION OF A POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AS SAMPLED BY THE 00Z WILMINGTON OH OBSERVED RAOB /5000+ J
PER KG MLCAPE/. WITH GREATER ACCESS TO WARM/MOIST ADVECTION JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE...AT LEAST THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE
APPROACHING MCS MAY POSE A DAMAGING WIND/PERHAPS SEVERE HAIL RISK
OVERNIGHT INTO PORTIONS OF OH/PA/NY.
..GUYER/THOMPSON.. 07/26/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
LAT...LON 42628006 43127831 43117701 42607688 41987734 41227907
41187927 40698041 40618103 41258253 41918113 42628006SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 26, 4:31 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Chemung, Livingston, Ontario and 5 more | 89 min |
| Jul 26, 12:26 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Chemung, Schuyler, Steuben | 2 hr |
| Jul 26, 1:16 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua | 9 hr |
| Jul 26, 1:50 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Albany, Broome, Chemung, Chenango, Columbia, Cortland and 22 more | 115 min |
| Jul 26, 2:10 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Albany, Broome, Cayuga, Chemung, Chenango, Columbia and 26 more | 6 hr |
| Jul 26, 3:37 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bronx, Cattaraugus, Kings, Nassau, New York, Orange and 6 more | 113 min |
| Jul 26, 3:57 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bronx, Kings, Nassau, New York, Orange, Putnam and 5 more | 6 hr |
| Jul 26, 6:04 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bronx, Columbia, Dutchess, Kings, Nassau, New York and 9 more | 86 min |
| Jul 26, 7:28 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bronx, Dutchess, Kings, Nassau, New York, Putnam and 5 more | 92 min |
| Jul 26, 6:06 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Athens, Belmont, Gallia, Guernsey, Harrison, Jackson and 9 more | 84 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.