Alert archive / Indiana / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 1306

June 29, 201254 counties in Indiana; 4 counties in Kentucky; 47 counties in Ohio

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 29, 2012, 2:01 PM EDT for 54 counties in Indiana; 4 counties in Kentucky; 47 counties in Ohio. It was in force for 119 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 29, 2012, 2:01 PM EDT (18:01 UTC)
Expired
Jun 29, 2012, 4:00 PM EDT
In force
119 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 105 counties

Adams County, IN, Allen County, IN, Bartholomew County, IN, Blackford County, IN, Boone County, IN, Carroll County, IN, Cass County, IN, Clinton County, IN, Dearborn County, IN, Decatur County, IN, DeKalb County, IN, Delaware County, IN, Elkhart County, IN, Fayette County, IN, Fountain County, IN, Franklin County, IN, Fulton County, IN, Grant County, IN, Hamilton County, IN, Hancock County, IN, Hendricks County, IN, Henry County, IN, Howard County, IN, Huntington County, IN, Jay County, IN, Jennings County, IN, Johnson County, IN, Kosciusko County, IN, LaGrange County, IN, Madison County, IN, Marion County, IN, Marshall County, IN, Miami County, IN, Montgomery County, IN, Morgan County, IN, Noble County, IN, Ohio County, IN, Parke County, IN, Putnam County, IN, Randolph County, IN, Ripley County, IN, Rush County, IN, Shelby County, IN, Steuben County, IN, Switzerland County, IN, Tippecanoe County, IN, Tipton County, IN, Union County, IN, Wabash County, IN, Warren County, IN, Wayne County, IN, Wells County, IN, White County, IN, Whitley County, IN, Boone County, KY, Campbell County, KY, Gallatin County, KY, Kenton County, KY, Adams County, OH, Allen County, OH, Auglaize County, OH, Brown County, OH, Butler County, OH, Champaign County, OH, Clark County, OH, Clermont County, OH, Clinton County, OH, Crawford County, OH, Darke County, OH, Defiance County, OH, Delaware County, OH, Fairfield County, OH, Fayette County, OH, Franklin County, OH, Greene County, OH, Hamilton County, OH, Hancock County, OH, Hardin County, OH, Henry County, OH, Highland County, OH, Hocking County, OH, Knox County, OH, Licking County, OH, Logan County, OH, Madison County, OH, Marion County, OH, Mercer County, OH, Miami County, OH, Montgomery County, OH, Morrow County, OH, Paulding County, OH, Perry County, OH, Pickaway County, OH, Pike County, OH, Preble County, OH, Putnam County, OH, Richland County, OH, Ross County, OH, Seneca County, OH, Shelby County, OH, Union County, OH, Van Wert County, OH, Warren County, OH, Williams County, OH, Wyandot County, OH

The radar

The Northern Indiana radar (KIWX), 118 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 6.0 hours before the alert went out and 151 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 12:00Z on 2012-06-29Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 3674 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 12:00Z on 2012-06-29The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -59 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
3674 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-139 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
979 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
36 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-59 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-13 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
9.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

707 
ACUS11 KWNS 291802
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291801
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-MIZ000-292000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1306
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...IND/OH...FAR N-CNTRL KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 435...

VALID 291801Z - 292000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 435
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT SHOULD INCREASE WITH SMALL MCS
EVOLVING SEWD FROM NWRN IND. ADDITIONAL DISCRETE CONVECTION SHOULD
FORM ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT BISECTING CNTRL IND/OH. WITH
EXTREME INSTABILITY ALONG THIS CORRIDOR...TSTMS HERE WOULD POSE A
RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. DOWNSTREAM WW EXTENSION
AND/OR A NEW WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY THIS
AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...SMALL MCS HAS PROGRESSED INTO NWRN IND WITH ATTENDANT
SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREATS...WHILE SMALL CBS/CU HAVE INCREASED IN A
W/E-ORIENTATION ANALYZED FROM NEAR BMI TO 30 N DAY. INSTABILITY IS
GREATEST WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH 90S TEMPERATURES AND 70S DEW
POINTS RESULTING IN MLCAPE LIKELY EXCEEDING 3500 J/KG. WITH
CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION AND OUTFLOW DRIVING SEWD FROM THE INITIAL
MCS...TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE ALONG THIS CORRIDOR...PERHAPS EITHER
MERGING WITH THE NRN CLUSTER OR FORMING A SEPARATE MCS. SIGNIFICANT
LARGE HAIL IS MOST LIKELY WITH INITIAL DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT. WITH
TIME...CONSOLIDATING AND STRENGTHENING COLD POOLS SHOULD RESULT IN A
MIXED SEVERE WIND/HAIL MODE THAT WOULD TEND TO PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS
IND INTO OH.

..GRAMS.. 06/29/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...LOT...

LAT...LON   41708602 41818564 41668458 41488405 41058292 40598199
            40018191 39028272 38678392 38778503 39268636 39678730
            40028745 40428746 41268634 41708602

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 28, 8:25 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCass, Fulton, Jasper, LaPorte, Porter, Pulaski and 2 more2 hr
Jun 28, 9:26 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCFulton, Jasper, Lake, Marshall, Porter, Pulaski and 1 more64 min
Jun 28, 10:42 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCFulton, LaPorte, Marshall, Pulaski, Starke63 min
Jun 29, 10:22 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Benton, Blackford, Boone, Carroll, Cass and 38 more2 hr
Jun 29, 11:49 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdams, Allen, Benton, Blackford, Boone, Carroll and 48 more6 hr
Jun 29, 3:02 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCDearborn, Fayette, Franklin, Ohio, Ripley, Switzerland and 2 more5 hr
Jun 29, 3:07 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Delaware, Fayette, Franklin, Henry, Jay and 4 more53 min
Jun 29, 4:22 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBartholomew, Dearborn, Decatur, Fayette, Franklin, Hancock and 11 more83 min
Jun 29, 6:03 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBath, Bourbon, Boyd, Bracken, Campbell, Carter and 27 more87 min
Jun 29, 6:34 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCLawrence6 hr
Jun 29, 7:51 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBreathitt, Floyd, Johnson, Knott, Magoffin, Martin and 2 more114 min
Jun 28, 8:53 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAshtabula, Cuyahoga, Erie, Geauga, Huron, Lake and 5 more97 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.