Mesoscale Discussion 1277

Issued

Jun 25, 2012, 6:27 PM EDT (22:27 UTC)

Expired

Jun 25, 2012, 7:30 PM EDT

In force

63 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Tampa radar (KTBW), 128 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:29 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

516 
ACUS11 KWNS 252228
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252227
FLZ000-GAZ000-252330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1277
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0527 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA AND ERN PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 427...

VALID 252227Z - 252330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 427 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE TEMPORARILY WANED ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF ROTATING STORMS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WW MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY IF CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE.

DISCUSSION...DETERMINISTIC MODELS APPEAR TO BE HAVING DIFFICULTY IN
ASSESSING SOMEWHAT SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT/SUBSIDENCE THAT WAS OBSERVED ON THE AREA 18Z
SOUNDINGS...PARTICULARLY AT JAX. LONG-LOOP OF WV IMAGERY SHOWS A
CONTINUATION OF DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED CNTRL U.S. RIDGE AND AN
EXITING THROUGH TO THE N. AS SUCH...THE POTENTIAL FOR
ROBUST/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS REMAINS UNCLEAR.

WITH NO WELL ORGANIZED BANDS EVIDENT AND HI-RES MODEL FORECASTS
INDICATING LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE WELL
DEFINED AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND RESULTING BAND OF
CONVECTION...TORNADIC POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS REMAINS
UNCLEAR. VAD WIND PROFILE TRENDS INDICATE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR HAS
WEAKENED SOME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...ALTHOUGH 0-3 KM SRH NEAR
250-350 M2/S2 REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATION SHOULD A STRONGER
UPDRAFT OCCUR.

..HURLBUT.. 06/25/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   30638108 28968041 27818004 26287964 26248065 25788093
            25628206 27018289 27868318 28578310 28768328 29758406
            29998460 30318461 30628436 30598230 30368218 30388198
            30828194 30638108

Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.