Mesoscale Discussion 1264

Issued

Jun 24, 2012, 10:16 PM EDT (02:16 UTC)

Expired

Jun 24, 2012, 11:15 PM EDT

In force

59 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Tampa radar (KTBW), 98 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

575 
ACUS11 KWNS 250216
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250216 
FLZ000-250315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1264
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0916 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH THE SERN COASTAL
PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 423...

VALID 250216Z - 250315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 423 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND WITHIN WW
423 WILL SHIFT THROUGH ECNTRL FL THROUGH 0330Z.

DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE EVOLVED INTO A PREDOMINANT LINEAR MODE FROM
JUST EAST OF TAMPA SWD TO WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE MOVING EAST AT
AROUND 45 KT. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS PERSIST EAST OF THE LINE ACROSS
ECNTRL FL. GREATEST TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT DURING THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO WILL EXIST ACROSS CNTRL THROUGH ECNTRL FL AS STORMS CROSS
THE WARM FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE BACKED TO SELY AND
HODOGRAPHS REMAIN LARGE. LATEST VWP FROM MELBOURNE SHOWS 300-400
M2/S2 STORM RELATIVE HELICITY...AND LOW 70S DEWPOINTS WILL MAINTAIN
SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR EMBEDDED SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS DESPITE THE
STABILIZING EFFECTS OF WIDESPREAD RAIN. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
REMAIN A THREAT WITH DISCRETE STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LINE AS
WELL AS WITH ANY EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THE LINE.

A CONTINUED BUT SOMEWHAT LESS OF A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL PERSIST OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE PENINSULA IN WAKE OF THE
SQUALL LINE. TAMPA VWP STILL INDICATES A 50 KT SLY LLJ...AND
HODOGRAPHS SHOULD REMAIN LARGE OVERNIGHT GIVEN NHC FORECAST TRACK OF
DEBBY. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW WEAK SHOWERS WITHIN RAIN BANDS
APPROACHING THE WRN FL COAST. WITH TIME...BOUNDARY LAYER ADVECTIVE
PROCESSES MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT RECOVERY FOR SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS TO INTENSIFY AND POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.

..DIAL.. 06/25/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   29618388 30108409 30138326 29388181 28588065 27368054
            26008100 26178178 28898303 29618388

Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.