Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
245 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND SCATTERED STORMS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA THROUGH 10 PM.

SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY...SOME SEVERE...NOW AFFECTING THE TRIAD AND
WESTERN PIEDMONT. CURRENT MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PLENTY OF MLCAPE (ON
THE ORDER OF 3500+) AND DCAPE OF 1300+ ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA.
THERMODYNAMICALLY...THE ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST WILL BE APPROACHING A
FAVORABLE AIRMASS FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY AND VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS.
INITIALLY BULK SHEAR IS MODEST (<20KT) BUT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
LATER TODAY AS THE SHORT WAVE TO OUR NW APPROACHES. THIS SETUP
SUGGESTS THE IMPACTS WITH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS TSTM ACTIVITY
WILL BE PRIMARILY DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS. ALTHOUGH LARGE
HAIL CAN'T BE RULED OUT...WE'RE EXPECTING THAT THE BULK OF THE STORM
REPORTS TODAY WILL BE WIND-RELATED. WORTH NOTING THAT THE CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORT THIS IDEA OF A FAST-MOVING
MULTICELL CLUSTER EVENT WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND WIND DAMAGE
POTENTIAL...WITH TIMING POINTING TO A MID-LATE AFTERNOON EVENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PIEDMONT AND A LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING EVENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN.
GIVEN THE NW FLOW AND ANTICIPATED SPEED OF THIS EVENT...ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY LATE EVENING.

LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO HOW THE ACTIVITY NOW MOVING SSE
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY MAY OR MAY NOT AFFECT US TONIGHT.
INITIAL THINKING IS THAT GIVEN ITS SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION...AND THE
FACT THAT THE TIMING OF THE REMNANT ACTIVITY WOULD HAVE IT MOVING
ACROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AFTER THE BL HAS STABILIZED...FOR NOW WILL
KEEP POPS LOW OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER WE'LL BE MONITORING THIS CLOSELY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING
OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY...THUS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF A PROBLEM WITH FOG OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
LOWER 70S

NW FLOW WITH WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TOMORROW...BUT THIS FLOW WILL WEAKEN WITH A CUTOFF TROUGH MOVING E
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN TERMS OF THE AIRMASS AND THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THE DAY WILL START
OFF WITH MORE CLOUDINESS THAN TODAY. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS...BUT WITH WEAKER MID/UPPER FLOW
AND SHEAR...EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE REDUCED COMPARED TO TODAY. SEVERE
STORM IMPACTS WILL ONCE AGAIN FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS MORE THAN
HAIL.

WEDNESDAY CONVECTION EXPECTED TO END BY LATE EVENING FOLLOWED BY
PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY 89 NORTHWEST TO NEAR 95 SOUTHWEST...AND LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT 71 NORTHEAST TO NEAR 75 EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1225 PM TUESDAY...

MIGRATORY LOW LEVEL RIDGING MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA WILL PRODUCE
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW AND INDUCE A HEAT RIDGE REFLECTED IN LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES IN EXCESS OF 1440M AND H85 TEMPS 22-24C.
CORRESPONDING SURFACE HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH UPPER 90S...
POTENTIALLY SOME VERY LOW TRIPLE DIGITS. THESE ARE BELOW RECORDS FOR
THE DATES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THU AT RDU. SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW. HIGH INSTABILITY WITH NO FORCING MECHANISM WILL FAVOR
CLIMATOLOGICAL DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND SEA BREEZE
PENETRATION...RESPECTIVELY.

TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW FRIDAY. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE AFTER MAX
HEATING FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING UPPER 90S...AGAIN WITH
POTENTIALLY A STRAY 100 DEGREE READING. WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO A LITTLE QUICKER FROPA AS DEPICTED
ON LATEST MODEL RUNS. MILD AND MUGGY WITH LOWS WITHIN A DEGREE OR
TWO OF MIDDLE 70S BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1225 PM TUESDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE NWP GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE GRADUAL
ESTABLISHMENT OF A MEAN TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS TROF BECOMES
ESTABLISHED...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EARLY THIS WEEKEND WILL PUSH
THROUGH CENTRAL NC ON SAT...WITH RELATIVELY COOLER/DRIER (AND MORE
STABLE) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH THE DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME IN
PLACE...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHILE A
POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE EAST COAST TROF WILL INCREASE
CHANCES ON TUESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...IN THE 90 TO 95 DEGREE RANGE
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...POTENTIALLY A LITTLE COOLER TUESDAY IF WE
GET A REINFORCING SHORT WAVE DEEPENING THE MEAN TROF. PERSISTENCE
LOWS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...BASICALLY 70 TO 74.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM...

THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT THROUGH THE FIRST 6-9 HOURS OF THE TAFS
WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND REDUCED VSBY AND CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. OUR
WESTERN PIEDMONT TAF SITES WILL BE AFFECTED BETWEEN 17-20Z...WHILE
OUR EASTERN EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN TAF SITES AFFECTED
BETWEEN 20-24Z. OUTSIDE OF THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

MOSTLY MVFR FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS SUBSIDE. THEN A
DAILY THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY. THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF MVFR TO IFR FOG AND STRATUS
BETWEEN 5 AM AND 9 AM EACH MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE 26TH AND 27TH:

                  RDU            GSO             FAY
THU (26TH):   101 IN 2005    102 IN 1914      104 IN 1940
FRI (27TH):   104 IN 1940    104 IN 1914      106 IN 1940

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MLM
NEAR TERM...NP
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...NP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
255 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-251900-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
255 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 512 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MANY OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE...ARE
EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. A STORM OR TWO MAY PRODUCE HAIL IN EXCESS OF
ONE INCH. ADDITIONALLY...FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. RESIDENTS SHOULD BE PROMPT TO MOVE
INDOORS AHEAD OF ANY THUNDERSTORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES...WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 109 DEGREES...ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT SEVERE WEATHER AS SOON AS IT IS SAFE TO DO
SO. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR LATER WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
318 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NW SNOW CAMP          35.90N  79.48W
07/24/2012                   ALAMANCE           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200686

ELLIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0257 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 S SNOW CAMP           35.80N  79.43W
07/24/2012                   CHATHAM            NC   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE DOWN ON SILER CITY SNOW CAMP ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200687

ELLIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
321 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0303 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 ENE SILER CITY        35.75N  79.35W
07/24/2012                   CHATHAM            NC   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE DOWN ON MOUNT VERNON HICKORY MOUNTAIN ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200688

ELLIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
323 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSE TEER              35.90N  79.20W
07/24/2012                   ORANGE             NC   911 CALL CENTER

            LARGE TREE DOWN ON POWERLINES

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200689

ELLIS

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>