Severe Thunderstorm Warning 262, NWS Raleigh, NC

225 
WWUS52 KRAH 242036
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
436 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

NCC125-242045-
/O.CAN.KRAH.SV.W.0262.000000T0000Z-120724T2100Z/
MOORE NC-
436 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL MOORE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...


THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND 
THE WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.!

IF YOU OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE
HAIL...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL
FREE 1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...OR NOTIFY YOUR NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN RALEIGH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3495 7903 3505 7909 3513 7911 3519 7910
      3521 7913 3521 7912 3532 7854 3530 7858
      3520 7865 3515 7863 3508 7867 3498 7864
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 305DEG 14KT 3541 7891

$$

NCC051-085-242100-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0262.000000T0000Z-120724T2100Z/
CUMBERLAND NC-HARNETT NC-
436 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHERN HARNETT AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES...

AT 426 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 16 MILES
NORTHWEST OF LINDEN...OR 8 MILES WEST OF LILLINGTON...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... POPE AFB...SPRING
LAKE...FORT BRAGG...WADE...VANDER...STEDMAN...HOPE MILLS...GODWIN...
FAYETTEVILLE...EASTOVER AND BONNIE DOONE.

STRAIGHT LINE WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES...POWER LINES...AND DAMAGE
MOBILE HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AS FLYING DEBRIS
GENERATED BY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE DEADLY.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING.
SEEK SHELTER INDOORS NOW AND STAY AWAY FROM THE WINDOWS. MANY
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS. IF YOU CANNOT SEEK SHELTER INDOORS TAKE COVER IN A VEHICLE.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

IF YOU OBSERVED DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN RALEIGH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3495 7903 3505 7909 3513 7911 3519 7910
      3521 7913 3521 7912 3532 7854 3530 7858
      3520 7865 3515 7863 3508 7867 3498 7864
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 305DEG 14KT 3541 7891

$$

13

506 
WWUS52 KRAH 242055
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
455 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

NCC051-085-242105-
/O.EXP.KRAH.SV.W.0262.000000T0000Z-120724T2100Z/
CUMBERLAND NC-HARNETT NC-
455 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN HARNETT AND
CUMBERLAND COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 500 PM EDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED SOUTH AND OUT OF THE 
AREA...THUS THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. **!

IF YOU OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE
HAIL...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL
FREE 1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...OR NOTIFY YOUR NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN RALEIGH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3495 7903 3505 7909 3513 7911 3519 7910
      3521 7913 3521 7912 3532 7854 3530 7858
      3520 7865 3515 7863 3508 7867 3498 7864
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 305DEG 14KT 3537 7883

$$

13

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
245 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND SCATTERED STORMS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA THROUGH 10 PM.

SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY...SOME SEVERE...NOW AFFECTING THE TRIAD AND
WESTERN PIEDMONT. CURRENT MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PLENTY OF MLCAPE (ON
THE ORDER OF 3500+) AND DCAPE OF 1300+ ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA.
THERMODYNAMICALLY...THE ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST WILL BE APPROACHING A
FAVORABLE AIRMASS FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY AND VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS.
INITIALLY BULK SHEAR IS MODEST (<20KT) BUT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
LATER TODAY AS THE SHORT WAVE TO OUR NW APPROACHES. THIS SETUP
SUGGESTS THE IMPACTS WITH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS TSTM ACTIVITY
WILL BE PRIMARILY DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS. ALTHOUGH LARGE
HAIL CAN'T BE RULED OUT...WE'RE EXPECTING THAT THE BULK OF THE STORM
REPORTS TODAY WILL BE WIND-RELATED. WORTH NOTING THAT THE CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORT THIS IDEA OF A FAST-MOVING
MULTICELL CLUSTER EVENT WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND WIND DAMAGE
POTENTIAL...WITH TIMING POINTING TO A MID-LATE AFTERNOON EVENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PIEDMONT AND A LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING EVENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN.
GIVEN THE NW FLOW AND ANTICIPATED SPEED OF THIS EVENT...ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY LATE EVENING.

LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO HOW THE ACTIVITY NOW MOVING SSE
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY MAY OR MAY NOT AFFECT US TONIGHT.
INITIAL THINKING IS THAT GIVEN ITS SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION...AND THE
FACT THAT THE TIMING OF THE REMNANT ACTIVITY WOULD HAVE IT MOVING
ACROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AFTER THE BL HAS STABILIZED...FOR NOW WILL
KEEP POPS LOW OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER WE'LL BE MONITORING THIS CLOSELY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING
OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY...THUS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF A PROBLEM WITH FOG OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
LOWER 70S

NW FLOW WITH WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TOMORROW...BUT THIS FLOW WILL WEAKEN WITH A CUTOFF TROUGH MOVING E
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN TERMS OF THE AIRMASS AND THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THE DAY WILL START
OFF WITH MORE CLOUDINESS THAN TODAY. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS...BUT WITH WEAKER MID/UPPER FLOW
AND SHEAR...EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE REDUCED COMPARED TO TODAY. SEVERE
STORM IMPACTS WILL ONCE AGAIN FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS MORE THAN
HAIL.

WEDNESDAY CONVECTION EXPECTED TO END BY LATE EVENING FOLLOWED BY
PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY 89 NORTHWEST TO NEAR 95 SOUTHWEST...AND LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT 71 NORTHEAST TO NEAR 75 EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1225 PM TUESDAY...

MIGRATORY LOW LEVEL RIDGING MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA WILL PRODUCE
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW AND INDUCE A HEAT RIDGE REFLECTED IN LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES IN EXCESS OF 1440M AND H85 TEMPS 22-24C.
CORRESPONDING SURFACE HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH UPPER 90S...
POTENTIALLY SOME VERY LOW TRIPLE DIGITS. THESE ARE BELOW RECORDS FOR
THE DATES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THU AT RDU. SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW. HIGH INSTABILITY WITH NO FORCING MECHANISM WILL FAVOR
CLIMATOLOGICAL DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND SEA BREEZE
PENETRATION...RESPECTIVELY.

TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW FRIDAY. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE AFTER MAX
HEATING FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING UPPER 90S...AGAIN WITH
POTENTIALLY A STRAY 100 DEGREE READING. WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO A LITTLE QUICKER FROPA AS DEPICTED
ON LATEST MODEL RUNS. MILD AND MUGGY WITH LOWS WITHIN A DEGREE OR
TWO OF MIDDLE 70S BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1225 PM TUESDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE NWP GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE GRADUAL
ESTABLISHMENT OF A MEAN TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS TROF BECOMES
ESTABLISHED...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EARLY THIS WEEKEND WILL PUSH
THROUGH CENTRAL NC ON SAT...WITH RELATIVELY COOLER/DRIER (AND MORE
STABLE) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH THE DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME IN
PLACE...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHILE A
POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE EAST COAST TROF WILL INCREASE
CHANCES ON TUESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...IN THE 90 TO 95 DEGREE RANGE
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...POTENTIALLY A LITTLE COOLER TUESDAY IF WE
GET A REINFORCING SHORT WAVE DEEPENING THE MEAN TROF. PERSISTENCE
LOWS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...BASICALLY 70 TO 74.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM...

THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT THROUGH THE FIRST 6-9 HOURS OF THE TAFS
WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND REDUCED VSBY AND CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. OUR
WESTERN PIEDMONT TAF SITES WILL BE AFFECTED BETWEEN 17-20Z...WHILE
OUR EASTERN EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN TAF SITES AFFECTED
BETWEEN 20-24Z. OUTSIDE OF THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

MOSTLY MVFR FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS SUBSIDE. THEN A
DAILY THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY. THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF MVFR TO IFR FOG AND STRATUS
BETWEEN 5 AM AND 9 AM EACH MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE 26TH AND 27TH:

                  RDU            GSO             FAY
THU (26TH):   101 IN 2005    102 IN 1914      104 IN 1940
FRI (27TH):   104 IN 1940    104 IN 1914      106 IN 1940

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MLM
NEAR TERM...NP
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...NP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
255 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-251900-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
255 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 512 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MANY OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE...ARE
EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. A STORM OR TWO MAY PRODUCE HAIL IN EXCESS OF
ONE INCH. ADDITIONALLY...FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. RESIDENTS SHOULD BE PROMPT TO MOVE
INDOORS AHEAD OF ANY THUNDERSTORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES...WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 109 DEGREES...ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT SEVERE WEATHER AS SOON AS IT IS SAFE TO DO
SO. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR LATER WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
336 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0314 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NW FEARRINGTON        35.85N  79.13W
07/24/2012                   CHATHAM            NC   PUBLIC

            ONE TREE ON A FENCE AT ON GILMORE ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200690

ELLIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
337 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

NCZ010-011-242030-
HALIFAX-WARREN-
337 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS WARREN AND HALIFAX COUNTIES
THROUGH 430 PM EDT...

AT 337 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
LAKE GASTON...OR ABOUT 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF WARRENTON...MOVING EAST
AT 35 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...LITTLETON...
ROSEMARY...ROANOKE RAPIDS...SOUTH WELDON...AND...WELDON...HALIFAX.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HALF INCH DIAMETER SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 85 BETWEEN EXITS 229 AND 233.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 95 BETWEEN EXITS 160 AND 173.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

LAT...LON 3651 7788 3651 7781 3648 7776 3649 7764
      3645 7762 3641 7754 3637 7754 3634 7758
      3631 7756 3631 7752 3617 7760 3647 7824
      3655 7820 3655 7790
TIME...MOT...LOC 1937Z 291DEG 31KT 3654 7802

22

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
339 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 SE HARPERS CROSSROADS 35.48N  79.41W
07/24/2012                   MOORE              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            ON TREE DOWN ON GLENDON ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200691

ELLIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
342 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 SE HARPERS CROSSROADS 35.48N  79.41W
07/24/2012                   MOORE              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            ON TREE DOWN ON STREET PLACE ROAD IN GLENDON

&&

CORRECTED REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200691

ELLIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
347 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CARRBORO                35.92N  79.08W
07/24/2012                   ORANGE             NC   PUBLIC

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN IN CARRBORO

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200692

ELLIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
348 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0329 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NE FEARRINGTON        35.85N  79.02W
07/24/2012  M64 MPH          CHATHAM            NC   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200693

NP