Alert archive / North Carolina / Special Weather Statements in 2012

Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

May 23, 2012Cumberland County, North Carolina

NWS Raleigh, NC issued this special weather statement at May 23, 2012, 5:40 PM EDT for Cumberland County, North Carolina. It was in force for 65 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 23, 2012, 5:40 PM EDT (21:40 UTC)
Expired: May 23, 2012, 6:45 PM EDT
In force: 65 min
Issued by: NWS Raleigh, NC

County Cumberland County, NC

The radar

The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 87 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 9.7 hours before the alert went out and 167 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 63 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -23 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 574 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 10 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 40 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 35 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at May 23, 2:59 PM EDT, 2 hours 41 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 23, 2:59 PM EDT, 2 hours 41 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
259 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...
KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS WEEKEND BRINGING HOTTER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM...

CONVECTION IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS WHERE PARAMETERS FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ARE BEST. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP FURTHER
NORTHEAST AS THESE AREAS REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON.
SLIGHT SEVERE THREAT ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT WITH THE THREAT
MARGINALLY HIGHER AS ONE GOES EAST. STILL EXPECTING NEARLY ALL
CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE IN THE LATE EVENING... WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
INTO THE NIGHT.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS ABOVE 10000
FEET WILL DRY SIGNIFICANTLY AS DAWN APPROACHES IN THE SOUTHEAST.
WIDESPREAD STRATUS MOST LIKELY IN THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 4 OR 5 AM BUT
POSSIBLE ALMOST ANYWHERE... BUT PERHAPS PATCHIER. DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 60S TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LONG PERIODS OF CALM. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S NORTHWEST... MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO POOL IN THE FOOTHILLS OF VIRGINIA UNDER LOW
LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST FLOW... PERHAPS EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
NORTH CAROLINA. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64 AFTER
SUNRISE THURSDAY IN WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DRYING SPREADS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW
LEVEL WINDS BEST IN THE EAST AND NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MEAGER AT AROUND SIX DEGREES
PER KILOMETER. GIVEN THE DRYNESS ALOFT... WILL HOLD RAIN CHANCES AT
NO MORE THAN ONE IN FOUR. A WARMER START TO THE DAY WITH TRIGGER
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S... BUT DRYNESS ALOFT COULD LEAVE
INITIATION OF CONVECTION AT ROUGHLY THE SAME TIME... THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE MUCH EARLIER THURSDAY THAN TODAY AND
SUNSHINE WILL BOOST LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 83 NORTHWEST AND MID 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM WEDNESDAY...

NWP GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EXPANSION OF A
SEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE -- CHARACTERIZED BY H7 HEIGHTS
AROUND 322 DM -- FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING EXTENSION OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES WILL
ACCORDINGLY TREND ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD - IN THE
MID-UPPER 80S FRI TO GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE CORE OF ANOMALOUSLY WARM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF CENTRAL NC OWING
TO BOTH A MARINE-REGULATED EASTERLY COMPONENT OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE...AND TO THE
PLACEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR NW (HEAT IN CENTRAL NC IS
FAVORED WHEN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS POSITIONED TO OUR SW - INVOF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS). THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE AND RESULTANT
SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING/CAPPING ALOFT SUGGESTS ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
SPARSE...DIURNALLY-DRIVEN...AND CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE SEA BREEZE
AND/OR BLUE RIDGE.  LOWS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 65 EXPECTED. -MWS

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM WEDNESDAY...

GUIDANCE...TO VARYING DEGREES...SUGGESTS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...IN RESPONSE TO
THE PROGRESSION OF A WESTERN NOAM TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE
ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT WILL BOTH DECREASE PRECEDING CAPPING
ALOFT...AND DRAW NORTHWARD A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE LOCATED OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL INCREASE TUE AND ESPECIALLY BY WED...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS
WARM...BUT CONTINUED ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.  -MWS

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM...

CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTH COASTAL PLAIN
SHOULD DEVELOP FURTHER NORTHEAST AS TEMPERATURES WARM IN THAT AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD FURTHER WEST AND NORTHWEST.
EXPECTING NEARLY ALL CONVECTION TO END BY LATE EVENING THOUGH
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT. STRATUS AND FOG
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT... BEING MOST WIDESPREAD IN THE
SOUTHEAST. LOW CLOUDINESS SHOULD RISE TO VFR OR DISSIPATE A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWEST
WHERE MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER TO NOON. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY... MAINLY NORTH AND EAST PARTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND REMAIN
OVERHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AVIATION CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
LARGELY VFR DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

Hazardous weather outlook, May 23, 3:55 PM EDT, 1 hour 45 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
355 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012

NCZ008>011-025>028-040>043-074>078-083>086-088-089-241100-
GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-
CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
355 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 292 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

NCZ073-241100-
STANLY-
355 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

NCZ007-021>024-038-039-241100-
PERSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-
355 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

MWS

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 23, 5:01 PM EDT, 39 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
501 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0438 PM     HAIL             4 N NEW HOPE            35.87N  78.56W
05/23/2012  M1.00 INCH       WAKE               NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL AT FOX ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200301

SEC

Local storm report, May 23, 5:05 PM EDT, 35 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
505 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0503 PM     HAIL             1 WSW WAKE FOREST       35.97N  78.54W
05/23/2012  E1.00 INCH       WAKE               NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL AT HIGHWAY 98 AND U.S. ONE

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200302

14

Local storm report, May 23, 5:17 PM EDT, 23 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
517 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             4 N NEW HOPE            35.86N  78.55W
05/23/2012  E1.00 INCH       WAKE               NC   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200303

SEC

Local storm report, May 23, 5:31 PM EDT, 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
531 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNW WAKE FOREST       35.99N  78.53W
05/23/2012                   WAKE               NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREE DOWN AND OTHER OBJECTS IN ROAD AT HWY 1 AND
            JENKINS RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200304

MWS

Local storm report, May 23, 5:34 PM EDT, 6 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
534 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0529 PM     HAIL             FRANKLINTON             36.10N  78.46W
05/23/2012  E0.88 INCH       FRANKLIN           NC   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200305

SEC

Special weather statement, May 23, 5:40 PM EDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
540 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012

NCZ088-232245-
CUMBERLAND-
540 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CUMBERLAND COUNTY
THROUGH 645 PM EDT...

AT 540 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15
MILES SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR CREEK...OR ABOUT 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF
LUMBERTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CEDAR CREEK...
STEDMAN.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HALF INCH DIAMETER SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

LAT...LON 3486 7893 3488 7893 3491 7897 3510 7879
      3502 7865 3498 7863 3491 7854 3490 7854
      3486 7849 3485 7851 3484 7885 3483 7890
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 215DEG 21KT 3478 7886

MWS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Raleigh, NC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 22, 8:16 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Davidson, Forsyth	89 min
May 22, 8:20 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Randolph	55 min
May 22, 8:42 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Forsyth	33 min
May 22, 8:45 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Randolph	45 min
May 22, 8:48 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Anson	57 min
May 22, 9:18 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	RAH	Forsyth	2 hr
May 22, 9:37 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Forsyth, Guilford	68 min
May 22, 9:45 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	RAH	Forsyth	3 hr
May 22, 10:24 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Anson	66 min
May 22, 10:46 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Alamance	59 min
May 22, 11:07 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Stanly	53 min
May 22, 11:34 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Randolph	41 min
May 22, 11:37 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Scotland	53 min
May 23, 12:16 AM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	RAH	Montgomery, Moore, Randolph	59 min
May 23, 12:23 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Moore	67 min
May 23, 1:10 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Lee	65 min
May 23, 2:08 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Durham, Orange	52 min
May 23, 3:00 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Durham, Granville, Orange, Person	60 min
May 23, 1:31 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Sampson	59 min
May 23, 2:00 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Johnston, Sampson, Wayne	45 min
May 23, 2:33 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Cumberland, Harnett, Hoke, Moore	57 min
May 23, 2:44 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Johnston, Sampson, Wayne	46 min
May 23, 3:29 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Johnston, Wake	46 min
May 23, 3:32 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Harnett, Hoke, Lee, Moore	43 min
May 23, 3:57 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Moore	63 min
May 23, 4:07 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Johnston, Wake	38 min
May 23, 4:21 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Chatham, Harnett, Wake	54 min
May 23, 4:44 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Franklin, Granville, Wake	41 min
May 23, 5:23 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Durham, Franklin, Granville, Vance, Wake	38 min
May 23, 5:44 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Chatham	61 min
May 23, 5:51 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Halifax	54 min
May 23, 5:53 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Edgecombe, Halifax	67 min
May 23, 6:03 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Vance	57 min
May 23, 6:41 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Orange	64 min
May 23, 6:54 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Edgecombe	51 min
May 23, 6:59 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Halifax	61 min
May 23, 7:37 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Edgecombe, Halifax	31 min
May 23, 7:40 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Edgecombe	65 min
May 23, 7:54 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Wayne	36 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in North Carolina, 2012 Every special weather statement in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.