Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
827 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS WEEKEND BRINGING HOTTER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS SET UP OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BAGGY 500 MB TROUGH ALOFT. A VORT MAX
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND BE THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION. AS
EXPECTED CONVECTION IS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS DAYTIME HEATING
CONTINUES. CURRENTLY ONE BOUNDARY SET UP OVER THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
A SECOND OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT WHERE A MESO-LOW HAS SHOWN UP IN
THE SURFACE OBSERVATION. ONE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS ALREADY
BEEN ISSUED IN THIS VICINITY. WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING QUARTER
SIZE HAIL. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON
BUT CERTAINLY A FEW WARNINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN THREAT
FROM HAIL AND THE SECONDARY THREAT BEING WINDS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE STRONG...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE WE SAW CONVECTION
FIRST START TO BLOSSOM. THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT NEARLY AS
IMPRESSIVE THOUGH ONLY ABOUT 5 TO 5.5 DEGREES. WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE
1000-1500 J/KG...THE INSTABILITY WILL CERTAINLY BE THERE BUT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS NON-EXISTENT AT THIS TIME. THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST AS PW VALUES HERE ARE OVER
1.5 INCHES WITH 1-1.5 INCHES ELSEWHERE IN THE CWA. STRAIGHT AND
SHORT HODOGRAPHS AT THE CURRENT TIME BECOME LONGER AND MORE CURVED
LATER THIS EVENING (AFTER 0Z) AS THE VORT MAX GETS CLOSER TO THE
AREA BUT THE TIMING WILL BE OFF AS HEATING WILL BE GONE FOR THE DAY.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH HIGHER
TEMPS IN THE EAST AND THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES IN THE TRIAD. WINDS AT
MOST STATIONS WILL BECOME VARIABLE AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DISTURB AN
ALREADY WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT EXPECT CONVECTION TO WIND
DOWN DURING THE PERIOD FROM 0-3Z. THERE IS A VERY MINIMAL RISK FOR
SOME FOG OR LOW STRATUS FROM 9-12Z BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THIS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE
60S.

FOR WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. ONCE AGAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE MAPS SHOW A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CENTERED AT THE 400 MB LEVEL CROSSING THROUGH
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BETWEEN 18Z WEDNESDAY AND 00Z THURSDAY. CROSS
SECTIONS OF OMEGA SHOW THE BEST LIFTING BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z
WEDNESDAY. A SIMILAR SETUP TO TUESDAY AS FAR AS INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR GO WITH CAPE APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG DURING PEAK HEATING
AND ABOUT 10 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR. COVERAGE SHOULD BE BETTER IN THE
EAST VS THE WEST DUE TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW BUT SHEAR COULD BE A
LITTLE BIT BETTER IN THE SOUTHWEST MAKING THAT AREA MORE SUSCEPTIBLE
TO SEVERE STORMS...DESPITE LESS COVERAGE. THEREFORE WE COULD AGAIN
SEE A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL.
WINDS WILL BE 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO LESS ACROSS THE BOARD THAN ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...YIELDING A BIT WEAKER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ALTHOUGH THEY STILL WILL BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE
CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON LOW 80S NORTH TO
MID 80S SOUTH. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S WITH
THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES IN THE TRIAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM TUESDAY...

THE ONLY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE TO
DECREASE POP FRIDAY AND RAISE TEMPS EVEN MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN BUILDING MID AND
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS QUICKLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY... NEW ENGLAND...
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS PERIOD. IN FACT...
THE MID LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO WARM WHICH WILL INTRODUCE MID LEVEL
CAPPING TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING FRIDAY.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION 20-30 POP FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITH THE GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF THE CURRENT
UPPER TROUGH AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY. EXPECT INCREASING
SUNSHINE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND WARMING TEMPS. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S... WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR DRY AND HOTTER CONDITIONS. MODELS BUILD
THE CORE OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL RAISE HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 90S EXCEPT NEAR 90 FOR THE NW PIEDMONT EACH DAY.

THE BREAK DOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER... TUESDAY STILL LOOKS HOT AND LIKELY DRY WITH HIGHS
AGAIN IN THE LOWER 90S EXCEPT UPPER 80S NW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 815 PM TUESDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER... A FEW
STRONG STORMS MAY STILL AFFECT KGSO/KINT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THUS... HAVE INCLUDED AT TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR KGSO AND
KINT AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS/STORMS
THROUGH 03Z. ELSEWHERE... EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
OVERNIGHT.... HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS
AFTER THIS EVENING. THERE WILL HOWEVER BE A BRIEF CHANCE FOR SOME
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS FROM 09-12Z AT ALL STATIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY
LOW IN THIS AT THIS TIME... EXCEPT AT KRWI... WHICH RECEIVED
SUBSTANTIAL RAIN TODAY. THUS... AT KRWI... EXPECT WE WILL SEE VISBYS
RANGING FROM MVFR TO LIFR... WITH LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE UNTIL
SUNRISE (EXPECT SUB VFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING OR
INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF WEDNESDAY AT KRWI). ELSEWHERE...  ALONG
WITH THE LOW CONFIDENCE THREAT OF LOW CEILINGS SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME (09-12Z).
FOR WEDNESDAY EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH. THERE
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT HAVE LEFT THEM OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY... WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWER OR
STORM. IN ADDITION PRE-DAWN SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK AND REMAIN OVERHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AVIATION
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY VFR DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...BSD/ELLIS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
354 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-232000-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
354 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. WIND GUSTS TO
NEAR 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE RISK OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND
SANDHILLS WITH THE GREATEST THREAT BEING FROM HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE FROM
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN... SMALL HAIL... AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT SEVERE WEATHER AS SOON AS IT IS SAFE
TO DO SO. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR LATER WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

ELLIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
816 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

NCZ021-038-039-230145-
DAVIDSON-FORSYTH-RANDOLPH-
816 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS SECTIONS OF
RANDOLPH...FORSYTH AND DAVIDSON COUNTIES THROUGH 945 PM EDT...

AT 814 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 8 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ARCADIA...OR ABOUT 8 MILES EAST OF MOCKSVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. OTHER STORMS WERE DRIFTING NORTH FROM SOUTHERN
DAVIDSON COUNTY.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
ARCADIA...WELCOME...MIDWAY...CLEMMONS...LEWISVILLE...LEXINGTON...AND
WINSTON-SALEM.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.

HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS INCLUDING DITCHES...CREEKS...ROADWAYS AND
AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. MOTORISTS SHOULD ALSO REDUCE DRIVING SPEEDS TO AVOID
HYDROPLANING.

&&

LAT...LON 3614 8044 3626 8046 3626 8005 3593 8005
      3592 8003 3573 8002 3565 8031 3569 8034
      3571 8033 3571 8036 3589 8041 3589 8037
      3596 8038 3599 8043 3601 8042 3603 8045
      3612 8047
TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 240DEG 7KT 3589 8041

WSS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
820 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

NCZ039-074-075-230115-
MONTGOMERY-MOORE-RANDOLPH-
820 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS SECTIONS OF
RANDOLPH...MOORE AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES THROUGH 915 PM EDT...

AT 820 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES
EAST OF ELDORADO...OR ABOUT 9 MILES NORTH OF TROY...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
SEAGROVE...ULAH...ASHEBORO...MARTHA...COLERIDGE.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HALF INCH DIAMETER SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.

HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS INCLUDING DITCHES...CREEKS...ROADWAYS AND
AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. MOTORISTS SHOULD ALSO REDUCE DRIVING SPEEDS TO AVOID
HYDROPLANING.

&&

LAT...LON 3551 8008 3551 8006 3585 8005 3581 7954
      3543 7956 3543 7966 3540 7971 3537 7993
      3549 8009
TIME...MOT...LOC 0020Z 223DEG 15KT 3550 7993

WSS

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