Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS Paducah, KY

437 
WWUS53 KPAH 291232
SVSPAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
632 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

KYC149-291242-
/O.CAN.KPAH.SV.W.0036.000000T0000Z-120229T1300Z/
MCLEAN KY-
632 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN MCLEAN COUNTY IN
NORTHWEST KENTUCKY IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 3766 8734 3773 8738 3790 8730 3788 8727
      3791 8727 3802 8693 3794 8690 3793 8697
      3790 8698 3791 8692 3788 8689 3784 8690
      3784 8686 3775 8682
TIME...MOT...LOC 1232Z 252DEG 57KT 3792 8688

$$

INC147-KYC059-101-291300-
/O.CON.KPAH.SV.W.0036.000000T0000Z-120229T1300Z/
SPENCER IN-DAVIESS KY-HENDERSON KY-
632 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN
SPENCER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND EAST CENTRAL HENDERSON AND
NORTHERN DAVIESS COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY UNTIL 700 AM CST...

AT 629 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
GRANDVIEW...OR 6 MILES EAST OF ROCKPORT...MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

LAT...LON 3766 8734 3773 8738 3790 8730 3788 8727
      3791 8727 3802 8693 3794 8690 3793 8697
      3790 8698 3791 8692 3788 8689 3784 8690
      3784 8686 3775 8682
TIME...MOT...LOC 1232Z 252DEG 57KT 3792 8688
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 1.00IN

$$

032 
WWUS53 KPAH 291241
SVSPAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
641 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

KYC101-291252-
/O.CAN.KPAH.SV.W.0036.000000T0000Z-120229T1300Z/
HENDERSON KY-
641 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL HENDERSON COUNTY
IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 3769 8717 3775 8717 3779 8718 3784 8716
      3789 8712 3802 8693 3794 8690 3793 8697
      3790 8698 3791 8692 3788 8689 3784 8690
      3784 8686 3775 8682
TIME...MOT...LOC 1242Z 252DEG 57KT 3797 8669

$$

INC147-KYC059-291300-
/O.CON.KPAH.SV.W.0036.000000T0000Z-120229T1300Z/
SPENCER IN-DAVIESS KY-
641 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
SPENCER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND NORTHEASTERN DAVIESS COUNTY
IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY UNTIL 700 AM CST...

AT 638 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
CANNELTON...OR 16 MILES EAST OF ROCKPORT...MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

LAT...LON 3769 8717 3775 8717 3779 8718 3784 8716
      3789 8712 3802 8693 3794 8690 3793 8697
      3790 8698 3791 8692 3788 8689 3784 8690
      3784 8686 3775 8682
TIME...MOT...LOC 1242Z 252DEG 57KT 3797 8669
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 1.00IN

$$

670 
WWUS53 KPAH 291251
SVSPAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
651 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

INC147-291301-
/O.CAN.KPAH.SV.W.0036.000000T0000Z-120229T1300Z/
SPENCER IN-
651 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SPENCER COUNTY
IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 3772 8701 3780 8697 3785 8699 3789 8696
      3791 8692 3788 8689 3784 8690 3784 8686
      3775 8682
TIME...MOT...LOC 1251Z 252DEG 57KT 3801 8652

$$

KYC059-291300-
/O.CON.KPAH.SV.W.0036.000000T0000Z-120229T1300Z/
DAVIESS KY-
651 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN
DAVIESS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY UNTIL 700 AM CST...

AT 646 AM CST/746 AM EST/...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF CANNELTON...OR 25 MILES EAST OF
ROCKPORT...MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

LAT...LON 3772 8701 3780 8697 3785 8699 3789 8696
      3791 8692 3788 8689 3784 8690 3784 8686
      3775 8682
TIME...MOT...LOC 1251Z 252DEG 57KT 3801 8652
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 1.00IN

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
412 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

DELAYED DISCUSSION DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER.

CURRENT LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR AT 4 AM CST. MAINTENANCE OF THE TORNADIC CIRCULATIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST AS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS TAP INTO INCREASING
BULK SHEAR ABOVE 60 KTS...HELICITIES ABOVE 500 M2/S2...AND MOIST
UNSTABLE CAPES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG THROUGH 6 AM CST.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST STORM PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOKS AND
DISCUSSIONS FOR MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS.

ANOTHER ZONE OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND THETAE ADVECTION IS
APPEARING TO INCREASE OVER SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS AND THE PENNYRILE
REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY AS OF 10Z. THIS MAY AID IN THE MAINTENANCE
OF THE SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS SUPERCELL/TORNADO THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z.
SOME REGENERATION AND INITIATION OF NEW CONVECTION MAY OCCUR IN
WESTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN 5 AM AND 7 AM CST.

DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER THE SOUTHERN PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY...PER THE 3KM
HRRR 1 KM REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS THROUGH NOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK NORTHWARD
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY...SHEAR...AND MOISTURE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY. THE 00Z-06Z
DETERMINISTIC GFS GUIDANCE STILL APPEARS TO HAVE A CONSISTENT
HANDLE ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS CONVECTION AND WAS
GENERALLY FOLLOWED WITH THE SHORT TERM UPDATES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS IS QUITE HIGH. THE
ONLY POPS ARE ON SUNDAY WHEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SWEEP A FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION. THEY GENERATE A SATURATED LAYER WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES GENERALLY AT AND ABOVE 700MB...WHICH IS IN THE -15
TO -25 DEGREE RANGE. CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT SOME POINT SUNDAY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW 700MB...SO
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG MIXING.

SOME RECENT MODEL RUNS BRING THE VERY ELEVATED CONVECTION INTO THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST
BELOW FREEZING...WHICH COULD ALLOW SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND. FOR NOW
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ONLY ON SUNDAY. GUSTY WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA...REGARDLESS OF
PRECIPITATION. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE ODD
POTENTIALS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS
FOR A CHANGE. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE LATE MONDAY...AND
VERY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY...AS TEMPERATURES WARM
WELL BACK INTO THE 60S. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HOLD OFF OUR NEXT
CHANCE OF CONVECTION TIL AT LAST WEDNESDAY...WHEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 09Z TAFS THROUGH 09Z EARLY THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

MAIN CONCERN REMAINS STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA AS THE STORMS
APPROACH. THEN...PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. ANY LINGERING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SKIES CLEAR.

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SUSTAINED
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 30 TO 35
KNOTS. THE FUSTINESS SHOULD COME TO AN END WITH SUNSET...AND WEST TO
WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM....DRS
AVIATION...DRS/SMITH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
347 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-011000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
347 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH A FORWARD MOVEMENT AROUND 50 MPH. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. A
SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LINE OF STORMS.

THE CURRENT LINE OF STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE QUAD STATE REGION LATER
THIS MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH SUNSET FRIDAY. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLATED TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE
WESTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI NEAR THE BOOTHEEL REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

IF NOT ALREADY ACTIVATED BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS STILL REQUESTED FOR PARTS OF WEST KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING.

IF YOU CAN SAFELY DO SO...AND CONFIRMED REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS AND
TORNADOES...AS WELL AS DAMAGING WINDS IS ENCOURAGED. PLEASE REPORT
ANY HAIL SIZE IN COMPARISON TO THE TO THE SIZE OF A COIN OR THE
ACTUAL DIAMETER IN INCHES.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE ALSO NEEDED DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY.

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
603 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0603 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 S ZION                37.79N 87.48W
02/29/2012  M60 MPH          HENDERSON          KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED WITH THE STORM.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
610 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 AM     TORNADO          NEWBURGH                37.95N 87.40W
02/29/2012                   WARRICK            IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POSSIBLE TORNADO REPORTED BY STATE TROOPER NEAR THE
            COMMUNITY OF NEWBURGH.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
614 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0503 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MOUNDS                  37.11N 89.20W
02/29/2012                   PULASKI            IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POSSIBLE TORNADO DAMAGE NORTH AND WEST OF MOUNDS AND NEAR
            EXIT 8 ALONG INTERSTATE 57. SPOTTER HAD A CROSS ARM
            RIPPED OFF A RAILROAD SIGN AND MISSLED THROUGH HIS
            VEHCILE.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
615 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0614 AM     TSTM WND GST     HEBBARDSVILLE           37.78N 87.38W
02/29/2012  E60 MPH          HENDERSON          KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
619 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 AM     TORNADO          NEWBURGH                37.95N 87.40W
02/29/2012                   WARRICK            IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TORNADO REPORTED BY STATE TROOPER NEAR THE COMMUNITY OF
            NEWBURGH. WIDESPREAD DAMAGE THROUGHOUT THE CITY PROPER.
            RESCUE TEAMS ARE RESPONDING.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
622 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E BENTON              37.10N 89.53W
02/29/2012                   SCOTT              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POSSIBLE TORNADO. BARN AND CHICKEN FARM DESTROYED. HOUSE
            DAMAGED. WIDESPREAD TREE AND POWER LINE DAMAGE ALONG
            HIGHWAY 408 NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HWY 403. LATE
            REPORT.

&&

SMITTY