Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
412 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

DELAYED DISCUSSION DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER.

CURRENT LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR AT 4 AM CST. MAINTENANCE OF THE TORNADIC CIRCULATIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST AS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS TAP INTO INCREASING
BULK SHEAR ABOVE 60 KTS...HELICITIES ABOVE 500 M2/S2...AND MOIST
UNSTABLE CAPES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG THROUGH 6 AM CST.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST STORM PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOKS AND
DISCUSSIONS FOR MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS.

ANOTHER ZONE OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND THETAE ADVECTION IS
APPEARING TO INCREASE OVER SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS AND THE PENNYRILE
REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY AS OF 10Z. THIS MAY AID IN THE MAINTENANCE
OF THE SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS SUPERCELL/TORNADO THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z.
SOME REGENERATION AND INITIATION OF NEW CONVECTION MAY OCCUR IN
WESTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN 5 AM AND 7 AM CST.

DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER THE SOUTHERN PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY...PER THE 3KM
HRRR 1 KM REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS THROUGH NOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK NORTHWARD
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY...SHEAR...AND MOISTURE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY. THE 00Z-06Z
DETERMINISTIC GFS GUIDANCE STILL APPEARS TO HAVE A CONSISTENT
HANDLE ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS CONVECTION AND WAS
GENERALLY FOLLOWED WITH THE SHORT TERM UPDATES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS IS QUITE HIGH. THE
ONLY POPS ARE ON SUNDAY WHEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SWEEP A FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION. THEY GENERATE A SATURATED LAYER WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES GENERALLY AT AND ABOVE 700MB...WHICH IS IN THE -15
TO -25 DEGREE RANGE. CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT SOME POINT SUNDAY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW 700MB...SO
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG MIXING.

SOME RECENT MODEL RUNS BRING THE VERY ELEVATED CONVECTION INTO THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST
BELOW FREEZING...WHICH COULD ALLOW SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND. FOR NOW
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ONLY ON SUNDAY. GUSTY WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA...REGARDLESS OF
PRECIPITATION. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE ODD
POTENTIALS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS
FOR A CHANGE. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE LATE MONDAY...AND
VERY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY...AS TEMPERATURES WARM
WELL BACK INTO THE 60S. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HOLD OFF OUR NEXT
CHANCE OF CONVECTION TIL AT LAST WEDNESDAY...WHEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 09Z TAFS THROUGH 09Z EARLY THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

MAIN CONCERN REMAINS STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA AS THE STORMS
APPROACH. THEN...PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. ANY LINGERING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SKIES CLEAR.

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SUSTAINED
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 30 TO 35
KNOTS. THE FUSTINESS SHOULD COME TO AN END WITH SUNSET...AND WEST TO
WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM....DRS
AVIATION...DRS/SMITH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
347 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-011000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
347 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH A FORWARD MOVEMENT AROUND 50 MPH. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. A
SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LINE OF STORMS.

THE CURRENT LINE OF STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE QUAD STATE REGION LATER
THIS MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH SUNSET FRIDAY. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLATED TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE
WESTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI NEAR THE BOOTHEEL REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

IF NOT ALREADY ACTIVATED BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS STILL REQUESTED FOR PARTS OF WEST KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING.

IF YOU CAN SAFELY DO SO...AND CONFIRMED REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS AND
TORNADOES...AS WELL AS DAMAGING WINDS IS ENCOURAGED. PLEASE REPORT
ANY HAIL SIZE IN COMPARISON TO THE TO THE SIZE OF A COIN OR THE
ACTUAL DIAMETER IN INCHES.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE ALSO NEEDED DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY.

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
535 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 AM     TORNADO          METROPOLIS              37.15N 88.71W
02/29/2012                   MASSAC             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            OFFICE OF EM REPORTING TORNADO NEAR METROPOLIS ILLINOIS.
            SEEING POWER FLASHES FROM TRANSFORMERS ALSO.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
537 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0537 AM     TORNADO          HARRISBURG              37.74N 88.55W
02/29/2012                   SALINE             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SOUTHEAST PORTION OF TOWN EXPERIENCED MAJOR DAMAGE.
            POSSIBLE ONE DEATH BUT NO COMFIRMED. SEARCH AND RESCUE IN
            PROCESS AT THIS TIME.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
539 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 AM     TSTM WND DMG     BROWNWOOD               37.08N 89.95W
02/29/2012                   STODDARD           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EM REPORTS PATH OF DAMAGE BETWEEN OTTAWILD AND
            BROWNWOOD.LATE REPORT.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
540 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 AM     TSTM WND DMG     WEST PADUCAH            37.08N 88.74W
02/29/2012                   MCCRACKEN          KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MOBILE HOME DESTORYED ALONG OGDEN LANDING ROAD. LATE
            REPORT.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
542 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 AM     TSTM WND DMG     RAGLAND                 37.16N 88.89W
02/29/2012                   MCCRACKEN          KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MOBILE HOME DESTORYED ALONG OGDEN LANDING ROAD. LATE
            REPORT.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
543 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 AM     TSTM WND DMG     OSCAR                   37.14N 89.03W
02/29/2012                   BALLARD            KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A FEW BARNS AND A MACHINE SHED BLOWN DOWN. PORCH BLOWN
            OFF OF HOME.

&&

SMITTY