Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
412 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

DELAYED DISCUSSION DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER.

CURRENT LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR AT 4 AM CST. MAINTENANCE OF THE TORNADIC CIRCULATIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST AS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS TAP INTO INCREASING
BULK SHEAR ABOVE 60 KTS...HELICITIES ABOVE 500 M2/S2...AND MOIST
UNSTABLE CAPES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG THROUGH 6 AM CST.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST STORM PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOKS AND
DISCUSSIONS FOR MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS.

ANOTHER ZONE OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND THETAE ADVECTION IS
APPEARING TO INCREASE OVER SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS AND THE PENNYRILE
REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY AS OF 10Z. THIS MAY AID IN THE MAINTENANCE
OF THE SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS SUPERCELL/TORNADO THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z.
SOME REGENERATION AND INITIATION OF NEW CONVECTION MAY OCCUR IN
WESTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN 5 AM AND 7 AM CST.

DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER THE SOUTHERN PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY...PER THE 3KM
HRRR 1 KM REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS THROUGH NOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK NORTHWARD
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY...SHEAR...AND MOISTURE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY. THE 00Z-06Z
DETERMINISTIC GFS GUIDANCE STILL APPEARS TO HAVE A CONSISTENT
HANDLE ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS CONVECTION AND WAS
GENERALLY FOLLOWED WITH THE SHORT TERM UPDATES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS IS QUITE HIGH. THE
ONLY POPS ARE ON SUNDAY WHEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SWEEP A FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION. THEY GENERATE A SATURATED LAYER WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES GENERALLY AT AND ABOVE 700MB...WHICH IS IN THE -15
TO -25 DEGREE RANGE. CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT SOME POINT SUNDAY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW 700MB...SO
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG MIXING.

SOME RECENT MODEL RUNS BRING THE VERY ELEVATED CONVECTION INTO THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST
BELOW FREEZING...WHICH COULD ALLOW SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND. FOR NOW
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ONLY ON SUNDAY. GUSTY WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA...REGARDLESS OF
PRECIPITATION. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE ODD
POTENTIALS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS
FOR A CHANGE. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE LATE MONDAY...AND
VERY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY...AS TEMPERATURES WARM
WELL BACK INTO THE 60S. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HOLD OFF OUR NEXT
CHANCE OF CONVECTION TIL AT LAST WEDNESDAY...WHEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 09Z TAFS THROUGH 09Z EARLY THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

MAIN CONCERN REMAINS STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA AS THE STORMS
APPROACH. THEN...PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. ANY LINGERING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SKIES CLEAR.

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SUSTAINED
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 30 TO 35
KNOTS. THE FUSTINESS SHOULD COME TO AN END WITH SUNSET...AND WEST TO
WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM....DRS
AVIATION...DRS/SMITH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
849 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-011000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
849 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEST
KENTUCKY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS...WITH LITTLE FORWARD
MOVEMENT AT THIS TIME. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 11 AM CST. WITH
THE SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE SAME AREA...HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE A PROBLEM AND MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

THE CURRENT LINE OF STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE QUAD STATE REGION BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH SUNSET FRIDAY. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLATED TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE
WESTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI NEAR THE BOOTHEEL REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

IF NOT ALREADY ACTIVATED BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS STILL REQUESTED FOR PARTS OF WEST KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING.

IF YOU CAN SAFELY DO SO...AND CONFIRMED REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS AND
TORNADOES...AS WELL AS DAMAGING WINDS IS ENCOURAGED. PLEASE REPORT
ANY HAIL SIZE IN COMPARISON TO THE TO THE SIZE OF A COIN OR THE
ACTUAL DIAMETER IN INCHES.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE ALSO NEEDED DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY.

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
923 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 AM     HAIL             5 N CADIZ               36.94N 87.82W
02/29/2012  E0.25 INCH       TRIGG              KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZE HAIL N OF CADIZ BETWEEN HWY 139 AND 276

&&

DP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
927 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0924 AM     HAIL             AURORA                  36.78N 88.14W
02/29/2012  E1.00 INCH       MARSHALL           KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

DLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
942 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0936 AM     HAIL             CADIZ                   36.87N 87.82W
02/29/2012  E1.00 INCH       TRIGG              KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL AT THE AIRPORT.

&&

DP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
945 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0936 AM     HAIL             ENERGY                  36.83N 88.05W
02/29/2012  E1.00 INCH       TRIGG              KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN THE LBL AREA.

&&

DP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
946 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 AM     HAIL             CADIZ                   36.87N 87.82W
02/29/2012  E1.00 INCH       TRIGG              KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN CADIZ.

&&

DP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
953 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0948 AM     HAIL             GRACEY                  36.88N 87.63W
02/29/2012  E1.50 INCH       CHRISTIAN          KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

0951 AM     TSTM WND GST     GRACEY                  36.88N 87.63W
02/29/2012  E70.00 MPH       CHRISTIAN          KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DLL