River Flood Advisory 5, NWS Nashville, TN

504 
WGUS84 KOHX 201635
FLSOHX
FLOOD ADVISORY 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 
1135 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2012

 
...THE FLOOD ADVISORY HAS ENDED FOR THE WARTRACE CREEK...

  WARTRACE CREEK NEAR WARTRACE AFFECTING BEDFORD COUNTY 
 
. WARTRACE CREEK HAS FALLEN BELOW ADVISORY STAGE.THIS WILL BE THE LAST STATEMENT
ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER INFORMATION 
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

TNC003-210435-
/O.CON.KOHX.FL.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-120721T2355Z/
/WRTT1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
1135 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2012

THE FLOOD ADVISORY HAS ENDED FOR
  THE WARTRACE CREEK NEAR WARTRACE
* AT THIS TIME.
* AT 11AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.4 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL.
* AT 9.0 FEET...WATER BEGINS TO INUNDATE WINETTE AYERS PARK

$$

737 
WGUS84 KOHX 202050
FLSOHX
FLOOD ADVISORY 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 
350 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2012

 
...THE FLOOD ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED FOR THE WARTRACE CREEK...
 
  WARTRACE CREEK NEAR WARTRACE AFFECTING BEDFORD COUNTY
. WARTRACE CREEK HAS RETURNED TO NORMAL LEVELS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER INFORMATION 
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

TNC003-202120-
/O.EXP.KOHX.FL.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-120720T2100Z/
/WRTT1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
350 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2012

THE FLOOD ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED FOR
  THE WARTRACE CREEK NEAR WARTRACE
* AT 03PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 3.9 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO NEAR  FEET BY .

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
601 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2012

.AVIATION 12Z DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH TOWARD MIDDLE TN TODAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL
REACH SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFT 00Z. THUS...CONVECTION
TODAY WILL BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN AREAS. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD
END AFT 02Z FOR THE CSV AREA. OTW...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL
REMAIN DESPITE THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. THUS....IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFT 06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2012/

SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT APPROACHED THE MID STATE WITH GUSTO
OVERNIGHT, WITH MOST AREAS RECEIVING THUNDERSTORMS, LOTS OF LIGHTNING,
HEAVY RAINFALL, AND GUSTY WINDS. AT 08Z, THE COLD FRONT WAS STILL
NORTH OF OUR AREA, NEAR PADUCAH.

BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES, A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS HAVE HAD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE.
THUS, ANY HEAVY RAINS THAT FALL TODAY OVER THOSE AREAS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
RAPID RUN OFF, THEREBY INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF PONDING AND
ISOLATED FLOODING. SEVERAL AREAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE ALREADY
BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE MID STATE AROUND THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA.

EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO SLIDE SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY, REACHING
THE I-65 CORRIDOR BY 00Z/SAT. THE FRONT THEN PLODS ON TOWARD THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TONIGHT, WHERE IT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY. THE
FRONT THEN ACTUALLY STARTS TO PUSH BACK TO THE WEST SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.

HAVE CLOSELY TIED POP, WX AND PRECIP GRID VALUES TO MOVEMENT OF
SURFACE FRONT AND LOCATION OF BAND OF DEEPEST MOISTURE THROUGH TOMORROW.
AFTER THAT, EVEN THOUGH SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY AREA-WIDE,
BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES IS SLOW
TO DISSIPATE, AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TUESDAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL, EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY TO HAVE GUSTY WINDS TO 4O TO 50 MPH (SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT'S
STORMS). A FEW STORMS COULD ALSO BECOME BRIEFLY SEVERE OVER
EASTERN AND AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

LONG TERM...AS WE HEAD INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST, AFTER NEXT
TUESDAY, EXPECT A TRANSITION TO A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN (WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE MID STATE), FOLLOWED BY UPPER RIDGE AND HOT TEMPERATURES
BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE WEST BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
501 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2012

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-211015-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
501 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TN.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD MIDDLE TN TODAY.
INSTABILITY LEVELS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TN...WILL ELEVATE AS TEMPERATURES WARM. AS A RESULT...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TN. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE CHIEF SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES...THOUGH
LOWER...FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

REPORTS FROM TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

21