Alert archive / Tennessee / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2012

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 294, NWS Nashville, TN

July 19, 20124 counties in Tennessee

NWS Nashville, TN issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 19, 2012, 10:00 PM CDT for 4 counties in Tennessee. It was in force for 45 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 19, 2012, 10:00 PM CDT (03:00 UTC)
Expired: Jul 19, 2012, 10:45 PM CDT
In force: 45 min
Issued by: NWS Nashville, TN
Area: Storm-based polygon

Counties Dickson County, TN, Houston County, TN, Montgomery County, TN, Stewart County, TN

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 19, 7:35 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	4 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 00:00Z, 3.0 hours before the alert went out and 87 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2853 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -14 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1475 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 17 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -3 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 50 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

900 
WUUS54 KOHX 200300
SVROHX
TNC043-083-125-161-200345-
/O.NEW.KOHX.SV.W.0294.120720T0300Z-120720T0345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1000 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EAST CENTRAL STEWART COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  NORTH CENTRAL DICKSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  NORTHEASTERN HOUSTON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 1045 PM CDT

* AT 958 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONE INCH DIAMETER HAIL...
  AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THE STORM WAS NEAR
  CUMBERLAND CITY...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ERIN

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2. DO NOT
STAY OUTDOORS IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM FRIDAY
MORNING FOR CENTRAL TENNESSEE.

&&

LAT...LON 3655 8736 3625 8733 3627 8771 3648 8772
TIME...MOT...LOC 0300Z 261DEG 18KT 3638 8764

$$

FORECASTER:
11

1 follow-up statement

767 
WWUS54 KOHX 200325
SVSOHX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1025 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

TNC043-083-125-161-200345-
/O.CON.KOHX.SV.W.0294.000000T0000Z-120720T0345Z/
STEWART TN-DICKSON TN-HOUSTON TN-MONTGOMERY TN-
1025 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
MONTGOMERY...NORTHEASTERN HOUSTON...NORTH CENTRAL DICKSON AND EAST
CENTRAL STEWART COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM CDT...

AT 1022 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES
NORTHEAST OF ERIN...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHERN DICKSON AND SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY
  COUNTIES.

LAT...LON 3630 8734 3632 8764 3649 8766 3655 8736
TIME...MOT...LOC 0325Z 261DEG 18KT 3640 8749

$$
11

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Nashville, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 19, 5:21 PM CDT, 4 hours 39 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 19, 5:21 PM CDT, 4 hours 39 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
521 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAF'S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED ALONG THE
OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO GATHER STEAM AND PUSH INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE
MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON IS EXTREMELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE, SO AT
LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING AND
POSSIBLY EVEN PAST MIDNIGHT. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH TEMPO GROUPS IN
THE TAF'S, WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LESS CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN
THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012/

DISCUSSION...

SUBSIDENCE HAS APPARENTLY WON THE BATTLE TODAY WITH SINKING AIR
ALOFT SUPPRESSING THE CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
PREVENTING ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MID 80S TO
MID 90S...AND WITH MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS OUR AREA SOUTH OF THE
COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH...DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOW TO
UPPER 70S. UNFORTUNATELY THIS COMBINATION MEANS HEAT INDEX VALUES
HAVE CLIMBED TO NEAR OR ABOVE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA AS EARLIER FEARED WITH CKV AND BNA BOTH
AT 106 ATTM. HOWEVER...SHORT TIME SPAN OF THESE HIGH HI VALUES
ALONG WITH CRITERIA NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET TOMORROW NEGATES ANY
ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

MAIN ISSUES FOR THE FORECAST REVOLVE AROUND POPS FOR TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD. LATEST LOCAL WRF AND
HRRR RUNS INDICATE CURRENT PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER WILL ORGANIZE INTO A SEMI-LINE AND PUSH INTO THE
NORTHERN CWA THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY MAY POP UP TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LINE AS WELL.
WITH THIS THINKING AND COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS...HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF TONIGHT WITH
CHANCE POPS SOUTH. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE STRONG TO
POSSIBLE SEVERE DUE TO THE PREDICTED INSTABILITY LEVELS...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH PRECIP OCCURS AND WENT JUST UNDER LATEST
MOS GUIDANCE.

MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION WILL REJUVENATE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING...WITH ACTIVITY PUSHING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF LOW
POPS IN THE NORTHWEST AND LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST. ONCE
AGAIN...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN
HALF. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP WILL ALSO KEEP HIGHS LOWER THAN
TODAY IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90. MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS WILL FILTER INTO THE MID STATE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS AND DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

12Z GFS/ECMWF KEEP H5 RIDGE AXIS CENTERED FROM THE PLAINS STATES
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NEXT WEEK...WITH MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE. WITH MOISTURE
LEVELS ALSO INCREASING BY MONDAY...LOW PRECIP CHANCES WILL RETURN
TO THE FORECAST FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE
MUCH HIGHER THAN WE HAVE SEEN THIS PAST WEEK...SO ONLY ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
BE ON A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS REACHING BACK INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND HEAT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN BY THEN AS WELL.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

ROSE

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 19, 3:57 PM CDT, 6 hours 3 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
357 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-202100-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
357 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER AND MOVE INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS. SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL OF MIDDLE
TN ON FRIDAY. DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. ADDITIONALLY...LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

REPORTS FROM TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

55

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 19, 9:14 PM CDT, 46 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
914 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0902 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 S SPRINGFIELD         36.43N 86.88W
07/19/2012                   ROBERTSON          TN   AMATEUR RADIO

            18 INCH DIAMETER TREE BLOWN DOWN SOUTH OF SPRINGFIELD

&&

11

Local storm report, Jul 19, 9:21 PM CDT, 39 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
921 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     TSTM WND GST     10 E SPRINGFIELD        36.50N 86.70W
07/19/2012  E60 MPH          ROBERTSON          TN   PUBLIC

            RESIDENT NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF BOYLES ROAD AND
            PLEASANT GROVE ROAD ESTIMATED WINDS 60-70 MPH.

&&

JLM

Local storm report, Jul 19, 9:40 PM CDT, 20 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
940 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0926 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NE ASHLAND CITY       36.32N 87.01W
07/19/2012                   CHEATHAM           TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN AND A TRAMPOLINE FLIPPED

0918 PM     TSTM WND GST     GOODLETTSVILLE          36.33N 86.70W
07/19/2012  E60 MPH          DAVIDSON           TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ON MAIN STREET IN
            GOODLETTSVILLE.

&&

11

The office that day

Everything else NWS Nashville, TN issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 19, 7:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	Cheatham, Montgomery, Robertson	35 min
Jul 19, 8:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	Davidson, Robertson, Sumner	33 min
Jul 19, 8:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	Clay, Jackson, Macon, Overton, Smith	54 min
Jul 19, 8:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	Cheatham, Davidson, Robertson, Sumner	34 min
Jul 19, 9:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	Robertson, Sumner, Wilson	15 min
Jul 19, 9:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	Macon, Smith, Sumner, Trousdale, Wilson	37 min
Jul 19, 9:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	Cheatham, Davidson, Sumner, Wilson	31 min
Jul 19, 9:36 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	Cheatham, Davidson, Dickson	24 min
Jul 19, 9:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	Clay, Jackson, Macon, Overton, Pickett, Smith	29 min
Jul 19, 9:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	Macon, Smith, Sumner, Trousdale, Wilson	33 min
Jul 19, 10:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	Cheatham, Davidson, Dickson, Rutherford, Sumner, Williamson and 1 more	29 min
Jul 19, 10:14 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Fentress, Jackson, Overton, Putnam	46 min
Jul 19, 10:29 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Davidson, Smith, Williamson, Wilson	31 min
Jul 19, 10:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	Davidson, Rutherford, Williamson	19 min
Jul 19, 10:59 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Cannon, Cumberland, DeKalb, Putnam, Rutherford, White and 1 more	31 min
Jul 19, 11:18 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Stewart	27 min
Jul 19, 11:36 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Robertson, Sumner	24 min
Jul 20, 12:20 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Montgomery	40 min
Jul 20, 12:26 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	Davidson, Wilson	49 min
Jul 20, 12:41 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	Cheatham, Dickson, Montgomery	34 min
Jul 20, 1:32 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	OHX	Davidson, Rutherford, Williamson, Wilson	3 hr
Jul 20, 2:56 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	OHX	Dickson, Hickman, Maury, Williamson	3 hr
Jul 20, 3:57 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	OHX	Davidson, Sumner, Wilson	2 hr
Jul 20, 7:01 AM CDT	River Flood Advisory	OHX	Bedford	9 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Tennessee, 2012 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.