Severe Thunderstorm Warning 286, NWS Nashville, TN

758 
WWUS54 KOHX 200201
SVSOHX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
901 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

TNC027-087-111-133-159-200245-
/O.CON.KOHX.SV.W.0286.000000T0000Z-120720T0245Z/
OVERTON TN-SMITH TN-CLAY TN-JACKSON TN-MACON TN-
901 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MACON...
JACKSON...CLAY...NORTHEASTERN SMITH AND NORTHERN OVERTON COUNTIES
UNTIL 945 PM CDT...

AT 854 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 
60 MPH. THIS STORM IS PRODUCING VERY STRONG WINDS LEADING THE HEAVY 
RAIN AND HAIL BY ABOUT 10 MINUTES. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED 
ALONG A LINE FROM LAFAYETTE...TO RED BOILING SPRINGS...TO FAR 
WESTERN CLAY COUNTY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CELINA...GAINESBORO AND LIVINGSTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO THE DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND 
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! 
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN 
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3654 8528 3640 8512 3624 8576 3625 8578
      3623 8578 3663 8620 3662 8527
TIME...MOT...LOC 0158Z 311DEG 27KT 3658 8580

$$

TB12

605 
WWUS54 KOHX 200216
SVSOHX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
916 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

TNC027-087-111-133-159-200245-
/O.CON.KOHX.SV.W.0286.000000T0000Z-120720T0245Z/
OVERTON TN-SMITH TN-CLAY TN-JACKSON TN-MACON TN-
916 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MACON...
JACKSON...CLAY...NORTHEASTERN SMITH AND NORTHERN OVERTON COUNTIES
UNTIL 945 PM CDT...

AT 909 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 
60 MPH.  THE LINE OF DAMAGING WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM LAFAYETTE...TO 
RED BOILING SPRINGS...TO 7 MILES WEST OF CELINA...WHILE THE HEAVY 
RAIN...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...AND HAIL WAS CROSSING THE KENTUCKY AND 
TENNESSEE BORDER IN MACON COUNTY. THIS STORMS IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 
30 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE DAMAGING WINDS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CELINA...GAINESBORO AND LIVINGSTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3654 8528 3640 8512 3624 8576 3625 8578
      3623 8578 3663 8620 3662 8527
TIME...MOT...LOC 0213Z 311DEG 27KT 3651 8570

$$

TB12

062 
WWUS54 KOHX 200237
SVSOHX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
937 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

TNC027-087-111-133-159-200245-
/O.CON.KOHX.SV.W.0286.000000T0000Z-120720T0245Z/
OVERTON TN-SMITH TN-CLAY TN-JACKSON TN-MACON TN-
937 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MACON...
JACKSON...CLAY...NORTHEASTERN SMITH AND NORTHERN OVERTON COUNTIES
UNTIL 945 PM CDT...

AT 933 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 
60 MPH.  THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORM WINDS WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF 
GAINESBORO...TO THE GAINESBORO AND CLAY COUNTY LINE. MOVING 
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. QUARTER SIZED HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE 
DAMAGING WINDS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LIVINGSTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3654 8528 3640 8512 3624 8576 3625 8578
      3623 8578 3663 8620 3662 8527
TIME...MOT...LOC 0235Z 311DEG 27KT 3640 8554

$$

TB12

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
521 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAF'S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED ALONG THE
OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO GATHER STEAM AND PUSH INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE
MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON IS EXTREMELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE, SO AT
LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING AND
POSSIBLY EVEN PAST MIDNIGHT. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH TEMPO GROUPS IN
THE TAF'S, WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LESS CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN
THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012/

DISCUSSION...

SUBSIDENCE HAS APPARENTLY WON THE BATTLE TODAY WITH SINKING AIR
ALOFT SUPPRESSING THE CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
PREVENTING ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MID 80S TO
MID 90S...AND WITH MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS OUR AREA SOUTH OF THE
COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH...DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOW TO
UPPER 70S. UNFORTUNATELY THIS COMBINATION MEANS HEAT INDEX VALUES
HAVE CLIMBED TO NEAR OR ABOVE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA AS EARLIER FEARED WITH CKV AND BNA BOTH
AT 106 ATTM. HOWEVER...SHORT TIME SPAN OF THESE HIGH HI VALUES
ALONG WITH CRITERIA NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET TOMORROW NEGATES ANY
ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

MAIN ISSUES FOR THE FORECAST REVOLVE AROUND POPS FOR TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD. LATEST LOCAL WRF AND
HRRR RUNS INDICATE CURRENT PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER WILL ORGANIZE INTO A SEMI-LINE AND PUSH INTO THE
NORTHERN CWA THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY MAY POP UP TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LINE AS WELL.
WITH THIS THINKING AND COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS...HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF TONIGHT WITH
CHANCE POPS SOUTH. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE STRONG TO
POSSIBLE SEVERE DUE TO THE PREDICTED INSTABILITY LEVELS...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH PRECIP OCCURS AND WENT JUST UNDER LATEST
MOS GUIDANCE.

MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION WILL REJUVENATE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING...WITH ACTIVITY PUSHING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF LOW
POPS IN THE NORTHWEST AND LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST. ONCE
AGAIN...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN
HALF. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP WILL ALSO KEEP HIGHS LOWER THAN
TODAY IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90. MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS WILL FILTER INTO THE MID STATE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS AND DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

12Z GFS/ECMWF KEEP H5 RIDGE AXIS CENTERED FROM THE PLAINS STATES
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NEXT WEEK...WITH MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE. WITH MOISTURE
LEVELS ALSO INCREASING BY MONDAY...LOW PRECIP CHANCES WILL RETURN
TO THE FORECAST FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE
MUCH HIGHER THAN WE HAVE SEEN THIS PAST WEEK...SO ONLY ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
BE ON A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS REACHING BACK INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND HEAT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN BY THEN AS WELL.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

ROSE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
357 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-202100-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
357 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER AND MOVE INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS. SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL OF MIDDLE
TN ON FRIDAY. DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. ADDITIONALLY...LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

REPORTS FROM TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

55