Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Omaha, NE

407 
WWUS53 KOAX 042005
SVSOAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
305 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2012

NEC107-042045-
/O.CON.KOAX.SV.W.0082.000000T0000Z-120504T2045Z/
KNOX NE-
305 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM 
CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN KNOX COUNTY...

AT 301 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEROLOGISTS INDICATED A 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES 
NORTHWEST OF BLOOMFIELD...OR 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF YANKTON...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. 

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF 
NORTHEASTERN KNOX COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES 
PER HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY 
RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST 
FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO 
DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4285 9760 4285 9754 4275 9750 4263 9752
      4261 9781 4277 9785 4286 9761
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 258DEG 19KT 4270 9771 
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

ZAPOTOCNY

520 
WWUS53 KOAX 042014
SVSOAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
314 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2012

NEC107-042055-
/O.CAN.KOAX.SV.W.0082.000000T0000Z-120504T2045Z/
KNOX NE-
314 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN KNOX COUNTY IS 
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE 
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR 
PROPERTY. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  HOWEVER SMALL 
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4285 9760 4285 9754 4275 9750 4263 9752
      4261 9781 4277 9785 4286 9761
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 257DEG 16KT 4270 9771 

$$

ZAPOTOCNY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
119 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2012

.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO INCLUDE PRECIP CHANCES IN NORTH AND LOWER HIGH TEMPS.
OTHERWISE UPDATES FOR CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY NOTED NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER WITH
SOUTH FLOW AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. CLUSTER OF STORMS IN SOUTH DAKOTA GENERALLY LIFTING
TO THE EAST NORTHEAST...HOWEVER SOME BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. STILL A RISK FOR STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
HEATING AND INSTABILITY INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEST
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE NORTH. THERE IS NOT A REAL STRONG MID OR
UPPER LEVEL FORCING MECHANISM FOR OUR LOCAL AREA HOWEVER
INSTABILITY IS MODERATE TO HIGH AND THERE MAY BE SOME OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS ON. THE STORMS SHOULD DRIFT OR DEVELOP
SOUTHEAST INTO PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH
BETTER THETA-E ADVECTION INSTABILITY AND ATMOSPHERE IS NOT CAPPED.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.
STILL SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THEN
EXPECT SCT-BKN VFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT WITH CLUSTER OF STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON IN SOUTH DAKOTA THAT WILL CLIP NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. DID
INCLUDE MENTION TSRA POTENTIAL AT KOFK AFT 00Z. MORE UNCERTAINY
OVERNIGHT FOR KOMA AND KLNK...HOWEVER DID INCLUDE PRECIP MENTION
AT KOMA. DUE TO VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND DECREASING WINDS...HAVE
DETERIORATING CIGS AND VSBYS WITH FOG AND STRATUS AFTER 06Z TO
MVFR...THEN IFR/LIFR WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT FRI MAY 4 2012/

DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH MOST
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OCCURRING DURING EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A FEW STORMS POPPED UP THURSDAY EVENING BUT REALLY COULD NOT
MAINTAIN THEMSELVES WITH LIGHT FLOW ALOFT. STORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE
IN NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND OCCASIONALLY IN FAR SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA...BUT THESE SHOULD NOT AFFECT OUR CWA AFTER SUNRISE. THIS
SHOULD LEAVE OUR AREA UNDER FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY.

MID FLOW PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY UPPER TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE
WESTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT
FROM THE BROADER TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTH
DAKOTA BY SUNDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A COUPLE OF MORE MINOR DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
EJECT THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN FAST
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES. EACH
DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WHICH WILL AFFECT AT
LEAST OUR NORTHERN CWA UNTIL THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THE FIRST WAVE WAS MOVING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. LOWER
PRESSURES THERE WILL BRING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO EASTERN NEBRASKA
DURING THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE WARM FRONT WILL SET UP NEAR THE
NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER AS SURFACE WAVE TRACKS EAST. EXPECT
A COMPLEX OF STORMS TO FORM NORTH OF THIS LOW AND TRACK EAST INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA EARLY THIS EVENING WHERE SBCAPE VALUES WILL
APPROACH 3000 J/KG. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO LARGE
HAIL GIVEN LOW SHEAR...AND LIGHT WIND REGIME SUGGESTS A FEW
DOWNBURSTS COULD OCCUR. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA OVERNIGHT... BUT LACK OF
850 FLOW SUGGESTS THESE CHANCES ARE SMALL.

THE SECOND WAVE WILL EJECT INTO SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST. AGAIN EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE
NEAR THIS WAVE...WITH DEVELOPMENT CONTINUING ALONG COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT. MOST OF OUR AREA WILL LIKELY REMAINED CAPPED THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY...SO HAVE GONE DRY THEN. INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WILL
AID TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
STORMS SHOULD BE INCREASINGLY ELEVATED OVERNIGHT...WITH MUCAPES
CLOSE TO 4000 J/KG KEEPING A LARGE HAIL THREAT GOING ALL NIGHT.

LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE A GOOD BET IN OUR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT COOLER AND DRIER AIR SPILLING IN BEHIND FRONT SHOULD
LIMIT EXTENT.

HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE THE MID AND UPPER 80S WITH
DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S. 70S SHOULD BE COMMON ON SUNDAY BEHIND
COLD FRONT...WITH 60S AND LOWER 70S COMMON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS COOL AIR IS REINFORCED WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
RETURN FLOW LOOKS TO SET UP THURSDAY...PUSHING HIGHS BACK INTO THE
70S TO NEAR 80. OTHERWISE A BASICALLY DRY PERIOD MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

DERGAN

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

ZAPOTOCNY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1206 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2012

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-050715-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
1206 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS ALL OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...THEN THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE REST OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH DAMAGAING WINDS A SECONDARY
CONCERN. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA CLOSE TO THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER OR INTO WEST CENTRAL
IOWA.

DEEP MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL PRODUCE A
VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. A STATIONARY
FRONT IS DRAPED ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. IN ADDITION THERE
ARE ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH A MID
LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE. THIS MID LEVEL WAVE WILL CONTINUE EAST
AND ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND WITH THE HEATING WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
ENHANCED SHEAR NEAR THE FRONT IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WEST
CENTRAL IOWA MEANS THAT STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A SMALL
CHANCE TO PRODUCE A TORNADO. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT OR
DEVELOP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA DURING THE EVENING...WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN PLACE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAP ANY
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THAT FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA DURING THE
EVENING...THEN SWEEP THROUGH THE REST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA OVERNIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS...EVEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

ZAPOTOCNY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
212 PM CDT FRI MAY 04 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0151 PM     HAIL             8 NW VERDIGRE           42.68N 98.15W
05/04/2012  M1.75 INCH       KNOX               NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DFOBERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
241 PM CDT FRI MAY 04 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0218 PM     HAIL             10 NW VERDIGRE          42.70N 98.17W
05/04/2012  E0.88 INCH       KNOX               NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DIME TO NICKEL

&&

DFOBERT