Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Omaha, NE

761 
WWUS53 KOAX 040046
SVSOAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
746 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

NEC173-040100-
/O.CON.KOAX.SV.W.0076.000000T0000Z-120504T0100Z/
THURSTON NE-
746 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM 
CDT FOR CENTRAL THURSTON COUNTY...

AT 744 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 
EAST OF PENDER...OR 29 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SIOUX CITY. THIS STORM WAS 
NEARLY STATIONARY. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WALTHILL.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 77 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 164 AND 169.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES 
PER HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY 
RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST 
FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO 
DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY 
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED 
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4209 9645 4210 9667 4217 9666 4223 9645
TIME...MOT...LOC 0044Z 317DEG 2KT 4211 9661 
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

FOBERT

094 
WWUS53 KOAX 040058
SVSOAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
758 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

NEC173-040110-
/O.EXP.KOAX.SV.W.0076.000000T0000Z-120504T0100Z/
THURSTON NE-
758 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL THURSTON COUNTY 
WILL EXPIRE AT 800 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE 
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR 
PROPERTY. THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  
HOWEVER SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS 
THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4209 9645 4210 9667 4217 9666 4223 9645
TIME...MOT...LOC 0057Z 276DEG 6KT 4211 9661 

$$

FOBERT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
529 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.

SEVERAL BOUNDARIES...ONE FROM NEAR BVN-LCG...ANOTHER FROM OLU-TQE
AND ONE FROM JYR-LNK-OMA COULD PROVIDE FOCI FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH MID EVENING. THUS TEMPO MENTION OF TSRA WAS
CONTINUED AT KOMA AND KLNK. WOULD SUSPECT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL WEAKEN OR SHIFT SE OF TAF SITES BY 03Z...BUT THE RISK COULD
LINGER A BIT LONGER. LATE TONIGHT RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM RECENT
RAINS OR CONVECTION TONIGHT COULD ALLOW FOR FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID/LATE FRIDAY
MORNING.

CHERMOK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2012/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT. COMPLEXITY OF EVENING CONVECTIVE FORECAST
REMAINS HIGH WITH SEVERAL WEAK BOUNDARIES EXTENDING ACROSS THE
REGION. A FEW BOUNDARIES STICK OUT...THE FIRST OF WHICH IS THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA TOWARD
KOFK...KLCG AND JUST NORTH OF KSUX. SOUTH OF THIS...VERY MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ALLOWING FOR CONSIDERABLY INSTABILITY WITH
SFC TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S. SECOND BOUNDARY TO MENTION IS LEFT OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT
WAS ACROSS ERN KS/WRN MO...WHICH HAS NOW LIFTED NORTH INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER
OR NOT IF/WHEN ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO FORM ALONG THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE...LIKE
WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS INTO SOUTHEAST NEB AROUND 00Z AND COULD BE THE FOCUS TIME
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEB. IF THAT
HAPPENS...IT WOULD PRIMARILY BE EVENING CONVECTION FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA AND THEN PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS AND MISSOURI.

KERN/DEWALD

MID TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. MUCH OF
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY...BUT ANOTHER FRONT MOVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS WILL LIKELY GENERATE AN MCS THAT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SEVERE THREAT WITH THAT ACTIVITY.

SATURDAY IS SETTING UP IN SIMILAR FASHION TO FRIDAY...THAT MUCH OF
THE DAY MAY BE DRY...BUT YET ANOTHER MCS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...AND THEN MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SEVERE
THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

IT'S THIS COLD FRONT THAT BEGINS TO USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR.
BELIEVE THERE COULD STILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT THAT COULD LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IN GENERAL...PREFER A DRIER
SOLUTION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. LEFT IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...BUT NOT OVERLY
CONFIDENT ABOUT THAT AT THIS TIME.

DEWALD

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
505 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-041215-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
505 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MOST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ALBION TO WAYNE. SEVERAL WEAK BOUNDARIES
IN THE REGION COMBINED WITH HIGH INSTABILITY COULD CAUSE SEVERAL
OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. IN ADDITION...THE POTENTIALLY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS
COULD BRING ISOLATED LOCATIONS OF HEAVY RAIN. THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE BY LATE EVENING AND
SHIFT TO LOCATIONS FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO
WAYNE. THE STORMS WOULD DEVELOP ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
THAT IS FORECAST TO STRETCH FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN OR NEAR NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA FRIDAY AFTERNOON COULD MOVE OR DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTHEAST
INTO THE REST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA FRIDAY NIGHT.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD BE SEVERE.

THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND BRING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. SEVERE STORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA IF THE
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND DOES NOT PUSH THROUGH THAT REGION UNTIL LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING SOUTHEAST OF AN
ALBION TO WAYNE LINE.

CHERMOK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
705 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

NEZ015-040030-
THURSTON NE-
705 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 701 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PENDER...OR 26 MILES SOUTH OF
PONCA...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WALTHILL...WINNEBAGO AND THURSTON.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 77 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 164 AND 169.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4210 9642 4212 9680 4226 9681 4228 9653
      4228 9647
TIME...MOT...LOC 0001Z 258DEG 5KT 4218 9672

FOBERT