Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Morristown, TN

160 
WWUS54 KMRX 021612
SVSMRX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1112 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

TNC073-021621-
/O.CAN.KMRX.SV.W.0029.000000T0000Z-120302T1630Z/
HAWKINS TN-
1112 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR HAWKINS COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF HAWKINS COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3657 8254 3669 8260 3693 8225 3661 8206
TIME...MOT...LOC 1611Z 248DEG 57KT 3665 8246

$$

TNC163-VAC167-169-191-520-021630-
/O.CON.KMRX.SV.W.0029.000000T0000Z-120302T1630Z/
SULLIVAN TN-RUSSELL VA-SCOTT VA-WASHINGTON VA-CITY OF BRISTOL VA-
1112 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 AM EST
FOR CITY OF BRISTOL...WASHINGTON...SCOTT...RUSSELL AND SULLIVAN
COUNTIES...

AT 1109 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR HILTONS...OR NEAR GATE CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
  BRISTOL VA...NICKELSVILLE...COLLINGWOOD...BENHAMS AND CASTLEWOOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.


&&

LAT...LON 3657 8254 3669 8260 3693 8225 3661 8206
TIME...MOT...LOC 1611Z 248DEG 57KT 3665 8246

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
958 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

.DISCUSSION...INCREASING CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ALREADY
WITH SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ALREADY NOTED OVER NRN MIDDLE TN
INTO ERN HALF OF KY. RAINFALL RATES LOOK TO BE PRETTY INTENSE WITH
ANY STORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN SQUALL LINE...PLUS ANY LATER RAINS
ALONG THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT. PLAN TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR MY
FORECAST AREA WITH THE MORNING UPDATE...AND HAVE ALREADY COORDINATED
WITH SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES.

OTHERWISE...WARM FRONT AT 14Z APPEARED TO BE WELL NE OF CHA BUT
BETWEEN CSV AND TYS...THEN BULGING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KY. A
MODIFIED 12Z OHX SOUNDING REVEALS LOTS OF POSITIVE CAPE (2500 J/KG)
WITH WET BULB ZERO AND FREEZING HEIGHTS VERY FAVORABLE FOR LARGE
HAIL. STRONGEST WIND SHEAR IS TO OUR WEST THIS MORNING.

WILL REMOVE MORNING WORDING AND FRESHEN GRIDS TOWARD 11 AM EST...
PLUS ISSUE THE FLOOD WATCH AT THAT TIME WITH AN END TIME AROUND 4AM
EST SATURDAY. WIND ADVISORY FOR MTNS ALREADY IN EFFECT LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS...JOHNSON...SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST
     CARTER...SOUTHEAST GREENE...UNICOI.

VA...NONE.
&&

TG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
500 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-031000-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
500 AM EST (400 AM CST) FRI MAR 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION THIS MORNING...BRINGING A WARM AND MOIST MASS INTO THE AREA
FOR TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THIS WARM FRONT...WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS POSSIBLY
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...THE GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO MATERIALIZE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
GOLF BALLS OR LARGER...AND LONG-LIVED STRONG TORNADOES. THESE
SUPERCELLS SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON...OUT AHEAD OF A SQUALL
LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THIS
SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY RACE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION FOR THIS
WEEKEND...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM COULD
PRODUCE LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHEAST TENNESSEE ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DMG