Flood Watch 1, NWS Morristown, TN

Cherokee County, NC, Clay County, NC, Anderson County, TN, Bledsoe County, TN, Blount County, TN, Bradley County, TN, Campbell County, TN, Carter County, TN, Claiborne County, TN, Cocke County, TN, Grainger County, TN, Greene County, TN, Hamblen County, TN, Hamilton County, TN, Hancock County, TN, Hawkins County, TN, Jefferson County, TN, Johnson County, TN, Knox County, TN, Loudon County, TN, Marion County, TN, McMinn County, TN, Meigs County, TN, Monroe County, TN, Morgan County, TN, Polk County, TN, Rhea County, TN, Roane County, TN, Scott County, TN, Sequatchie County, TN, Sevier County, TN, Sullivan County, TN, Unicoi County, TN, Union County, TN, Washington County, TN, City of Bristol, VA, City of Norton, VA, Lee County, VA, Russell County, VA, Scott County, VA, Washington County, VA, Wise County, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
958 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

.DISCUSSION...INCREASING CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ALREADY
WITH SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ALREADY NOTED OVER NRN MIDDLE TN
INTO ERN HALF OF KY. RAINFALL RATES LOOK TO BE PRETTY INTENSE WITH
ANY STORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN SQUALL LINE...PLUS ANY LATER RAINS
ALONG THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT. PLAN TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR MY
FORECAST AREA WITH THE MORNING UPDATE...AND HAVE ALREADY COORDINATED
WITH SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES.

OTHERWISE...WARM FRONT AT 14Z APPEARED TO BE WELL NE OF CHA BUT
BETWEEN CSV AND TYS...THEN BULGING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KY. A
MODIFIED 12Z OHX SOUNDING REVEALS LOTS OF POSITIVE CAPE (2500 J/KG)
WITH WET BULB ZERO AND FREEZING HEIGHTS VERY FAVORABLE FOR LARGE
HAIL. STRONGEST WIND SHEAR IS TO OUR WEST THIS MORNING.

WILL REMOVE MORNING WORDING AND FRESHEN GRIDS TOWARD 11 AM EST...
PLUS ISSUE THE FLOOD WATCH AT THAT TIME WITH AN END TIME AROUND 4AM
EST SATURDAY. WIND ADVISORY FOR MTNS ALREADY IN EFFECT LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS...JOHNSON...SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST
     CARTER...SOUTHEAST GREENE...UNICOI.

VA...NONE.
&&

TG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
500 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-031000-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
500 AM EST (400 AM CST) FRI MAR 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION THIS MORNING...BRINGING A WARM AND MOIST MASS INTO THE AREA
FOR TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THIS WARM FRONT...WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS POSSIBLY
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...THE GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO MATERIALIZE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
GOLF BALLS OR LARGER...AND LONG-LIVED STRONG TORNADOES. THESE
SUPERCELLS SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON...OUT AHEAD OF A SQUALL
LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THIS
SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY RACE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION FOR THIS
WEEKEND...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM COULD
PRODUCE LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHEAST TENNESSEE ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DMG