Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
233 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

.DISCUSSION...
A COOL AND DAMP PERIOD THROUGH THE REST OF WORK WEEK...WITH DRIER
WEATHER ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE 70S AND 80S
NEXT SUNDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING.
REFLECTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD AS WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF MN. ON GOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WAS ASSOCIATED WITH INSTABILITY(1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPES) AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH FREEZING LEVEL BELOW
10000 FEET...POSSIBLY SOME LARGE HAIL WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER
STORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL EXTEND SOUTH
OVER MUCH OF FORECAST AREA INTO TUESDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO ROTATE SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR NORTHEAST HALF OF FA.
SCATTERED SHRA POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...THEN PARTIAL
CLEARING OVER SOUTHERN HALF TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN MN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SYSTEM WILL HELP SQUEEZE OUT ANOTHER ADDITIONAL UP TO .25 HUNDREDTH
OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION.

MAX TEMPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE RATHER COOL...WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODEL...INDICATES MORE OF SAME WITH ANOTHER
PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
OVERALL... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL MIGRATE EAST INTO THE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD... WORKING IN CONCERT WITH A SECONDARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO KICK OFF SOME SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON... THEN PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED SHRA ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WITH ANY SHRA/TSRA WILL MAINLY BE VFR WITH
JUST SOME BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING LOCATION OF
ACTIVITY IS TOO LOW TO SPECIFICALLY MENTION ANYTHING OTHER THAN
VFR VISIBILITIES... AND NO PREVAILING THUNDER AT THIS POINT. BEST
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES... WITH
KMSP LIKELY NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF ANYTHING THAT MANAGES TO GET
GOING. WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN OR CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA AROUND 19Z OR 20Z... THEN
MIGRATE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING... ONCE
AGAIN MAINLY IMPACTING LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE... ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF NORTH-NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA DUE
TO SOME OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. THAT BRIEF PERIOD OF
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS MAY IMPACT KSTC AND PERHAPS INTO KRWF... BUT
AT THIS POINT AM NOT MENTIONING IT ANY FARTHER SOUTH OR EAST. MORE
WIDESPREAD STRATOCU IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE THERMAL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE REGION... WITH SOME INITIAL CEILINGS AOB 3K FT
POSSIBLE BEFORE RISING BACK INTO VFR RANGE.

KMSP... TAF REFLECTS FORECAST EXPECTATIONS WITH MAIN UNCERTAINTY
BEING WITH THE CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. IF/WHEN
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS UPSTREAM WILL AMEND AS NEEDED TO BETTER REFLECT
PROBABILITY AND TIMING OF THINGS. SOME UNCERTAINTY IS ALSO
ASSOCIATED WITH TIMING AND INITIAL HEIGHT OF CEILINGS MOVING INTO
THE AREA ON TUESDAY... WITH +/- 3 HOURS TIMING AND PERHAPS 500FT
DIFFERENCES IN CEILING POSSIBLE.

//OUTLOOK FOR KMSP FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
FRIDAY...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
842 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

MNZ042>045-049>053-058>063-066-068>070-WIZ014>016-023>025-027-
291345-
TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEARNS-BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-
CHISAGO-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-MCLEOD-
CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-
CHIPPEWA-
842 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NEAR LONG
PRAIRIE SOUTH TO HUTCHINSON BY MID AFTERNOON... THEN MOVE EAST
THROUGH SAINT CLOUD... THE TWIN CITIES... AND PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP... AND
THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE IN
DIAMETER AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE PRIMARY AREA FOR
POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS WILL BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM LITCHFIELD TO
LADYSMITH... MAINLY BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM.

RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CROW AND COTTONWOOD RIVERS
DUE TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS. PLEASE REFERENCE THE FLOOD
STATEMENTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION REGARDING RIVER FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CROW AND COTTONWOOD RIVERS
DUE TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS. EVENTUALLY THE RIVER FLOODING MAY
SPREAD TO THE MINNESOTA AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS. PLEASE REFERENCE
THE FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION REGARDING RIVER
FLOODING. A FEW NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

MNZ041-047-048-054>057-064-065-067-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ026-
028-291345-
DOUGLAS-STEVENS-POPE-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-SIBLEY-REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-
RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-
FREEBORN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
842 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY... MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE
FROM REDWOOD FALLS TO EAU CLAIRE. SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS. RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CROW AND
COTTONWOOD RIVERS DUE TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS. PLEASE REFERENCE
THE FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION REGARDING RIVER
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CROW AND COTTONWOOD RIVERS
DUE TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS. EVENTUALLY THE RIVER FLOODING MAY
SPREAD TO THE MINNESOTA AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS. PLEASE REFERENCE
THE FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION REGARDING RIVER
FLOODING. A FEW NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
415 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0338 PM     HAIL             5 W WARMAN              46.05N 93.41W
05/28/2012  M1.00 INCH       KANABEC            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LOTS OF DIME, UP TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL FOR SEVERAL
            MINUTES.

&&

JLT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
418 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

MNZ052-053-282200-
CHISAGO-ISANTI-
418 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER CHISAGO AND ISANTI COUNTIES THROUGH 500
PM CDT...

AT 417 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF QUAMBA
TO 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF ST FRANCIS. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE AND WINDS UP TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  BODUM.
  RUSH CITY.
  NORTH BRANCH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
STORM TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 4557 9288 4556 9287 4557 9278 4555 9275
      4546 9284 4542 9302 4542 9325 4565 9314
      4574 9314 4573 9286
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 248DEG 31KT 4589 9322 4542 9342

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
430 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0402 PM     HAIL             ZIMMERMAN               45.44N 93.59W
05/28/2012  M0.75 INCH       SHERBURNE          MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JLT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
431 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HAIL             MILACA                  45.76N 93.65W
05/28/2012  M0.88 INCH       MILLE LACS         MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JLT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
451 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

MNZ053-282215-
CHISAGO-
451 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER CHISAGO COUNTY THROUGH 515 PM CDT...

AT 450 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF HARRIS. THIS STORM WAS MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  HARRIS.
  RUSH CITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
STORM TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 4573 9286 4567 9286 4560 9289 4558 9297
      4556 9313 4573 9315
TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 240DEG 33KT 4564 9305

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
533 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

MNZ053-282315-
CHISAGO-
533 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER CHISAGO COUNTY THROUGH 615 PM CDT...

AT 531 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR WYOMING. THIS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  WYOMING.
  CHISAGO CITY.
  LINDSTROM.
  CENTER CITY.
  SHAFER.
  TAYLORS FALLS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA UNTIL 8
PM CDT.

&&

LAT...LON 4552 9273 4547 9269 4544 9264 4537 9267
      4536 9270 4532 9271 4529 9275 4529 9301
      4530 9302 4540 9302 4554 9273
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 241DEG 28KT 4532 9296