Areal Flood Advisory 7, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
650 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.DISCUSSION...ISSUED 247 PM CDT

MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS DEAL WITH SVR WX LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING
AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SHRTWV WILL
COMBINE TO CREATE STRONG TO SVR TSRA ACROSS MOST OF THE FA. TIMING
REMAINS PROBLEMATIC DUE TO A FAIRLY STRONG CAP IN PLACE...BUT THIS
SHOULD QUICKLY ERODE ONCE THE SHRTWV MOVES TO THE NE AND MID-LEVEL
COOLING DEVELOPS THIS EVENING. SEE LATEST SPC FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

BASED ON SVR WX PARAMETERS...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE INITIALLY
LARGE HAIL...THEN TRANSITION INTO A STRAIGHT LINE WND EVENT.
HOWEVER...NEAR THE WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MN...ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY BEFORE 8 PM. RESIDUAL SHRA/TSRA
WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO EASTERN WI.
THE MAIN UPPER STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE SVR WX ANTICIPATED
THIS EVENING WILL TRACK ALONG THE MN/CANADIAN BORDER. IN THE WAVE
OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW ARND THIS SYSTEM...-SHRA AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THRU TUE.

AFT TUE...A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND INTO THE MIDWEST. MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE
AN INVERTED TROUGH TYPE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH
WILL LIMITED SVR WX...BUT KEEP CONDS UNSETTLED AND COOLER THAN
NORMAL. IN THE WAVE OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT A WARM-UP BY THE END
OF THE WEEK...ALONG ANOTHER CHC OF TSRA/SHRA.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO LIGHT UP ACROSS E NEB INTO SW MN AND NW WI
IN AREA OF VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHD OF SFC CDFNT NOW MOVING INTO W
MN. SFC WNDS HAVE TURNED WLY AT AQP/MML AND PQN.  MAIN SVR THREAT
WILL BE EAST OF THESE AREAS.  SFC LOW IS NEAR FAR WITH WARMFNT
EXTENDING SE FROM LOW TO NEAR PKD TO HYR. EXPECT TSTMS TO CONTINUE
TO BECOME MORE WDSPRD THIS EVENING AS BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
MOVE INTO AREA.  WEAK VORT MOVING NNE IN MOIST PLUME IS NOW IN NW IA
HELPING TO FIRE STORMS IN SC MN INTO NW WI.  MAINLY UPPER TROF IS
NOW SWINING ACRS CNTL INTO E NEB/KS FIRING STORMS IN SW MN INTO E
NEB WHICH WILL BE LIFTING NE ACRS AREA LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
THREAT OF TSTMS SLIGHT AT AXN AND EAU NEXT 8 HOURS...BUT GOOD AT
REMAINDER OF TAFS.  TSTMS WILL BE ENDING FROM SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT.
WLY WINDS BECOMING GUSTY TO 20-25KTS ON MONDAY BEHIND CDFNT.

KMSP...TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE WDSPRD AFT 02Z AS CONVECTION IN NEB/SW
MN LIFTS ACRS AREA.  EXPECT PRDS MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER STORMS.  DCAPE
VALUES HIGH ENUF FOR SOME TSTMS TO PRODUCE POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS
BEFORE 06Z.  MAIN AREA OF TSTMS SHUD BE NE OF MSP BY 08Z.  WLY WIDNS
GUSTING TO 20 KTS AFT 17Z.  VFR CU WILL DEVELOP BY 18Z...MAINLY SCT
BUT OCNL BKN040.

/OUTLOOK/
TUESDAY...MVFR/VFR. WINDS NW AT 15G25KT
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ANOKA-BENTON-BLUE
     EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-
     KANDIYOHI-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-
     NICOLLET-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-
     STEARNS-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT.

WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR POLK.

&&

JLT/BAP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1106 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
280945-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
1106 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

IT WILL BE HOT AND HUMID OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S. THE HEAT
INDEX WILL APPROACH NEAR 100 DEGREES OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS
TODAY IF YOU WORK OR SPEND EXTENSIVE TIME OUTSIDE.

IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE DAKOTAS.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE... AS WELL AS A FEW
TORNADOES. THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING TONIGHT AS THEY PASS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND FAR WESTERN WISCONSIN. FLOODING MAY ALSO DEVELOP
ALONG THE ALREADY SWOLLEN RIVERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A FEW NON SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AND
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
739 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0737 PM     HAIL             N FREDERIC              45.66N 92.46W
05/27/2012  M0.75 INCH       POLK               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

L. SCHALLER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
739 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

MNZ061>063-280130-
ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
739 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

AT 735 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR ST PAUL...OR NEAR LILYDALE. THIS STORM WAS MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE AND WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  ROSEVILLE.
  LITTLE CANADA.
  VADNAIS HEIGHTS.
  NORTH OAKS.
  CENTERVILLE.
  HUGO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 4525 9279 4490 9295 4491 9304 4492 9305
      4492 9320 4504 9321 4504 9327 4532 9316
TIME...MOT...LOC 0039Z 203DEG 32KT 4498 9313

JLT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
740 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HAIL             2 NW LE CENTER          44.41N 93.77W
05/27/2012  M1.00 INCH       LE SUEUR           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SMALL BRANCHES ALSO DOWN. WIND DRIVEN HAIL BROKE WINDOW.

&&

TDK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
803 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0801 PM     HAIL             BELLE PLAINE            44.62N 93.76W
05/27/2012  E0.25 INCH       SCOTT              MN   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

L. SCHALLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
804 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0801 PM     HAIL             BLOOMINGTON             44.83N 93.32W
05/27/2012  M0.25 INCH       HENNEPIN           MN   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

L. SCHALLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
811 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0804 PM     HAIL             SHOREVIEW               45.08N 93.14W
05/27/2012  M0.50 INCH       RAMSEY             MN   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

L. SCHALLER