Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
650 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.DISCUSSION...ISSUED 247 PM CDT

MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS DEAL WITH SVR WX LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING
AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SHRTWV WILL
COMBINE TO CREATE STRONG TO SVR TSRA ACROSS MOST OF THE FA. TIMING
REMAINS PROBLEMATIC DUE TO A FAIRLY STRONG CAP IN PLACE...BUT THIS
SHOULD QUICKLY ERODE ONCE THE SHRTWV MOVES TO THE NE AND MID-LEVEL
COOLING DEVELOPS THIS EVENING. SEE LATEST SPC FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

BASED ON SVR WX PARAMETERS...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE INITIALLY
LARGE HAIL...THEN TRANSITION INTO A STRAIGHT LINE WND EVENT.
HOWEVER...NEAR THE WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MN...ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY BEFORE 8 PM. RESIDUAL SHRA/TSRA
WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO EASTERN WI.
THE MAIN UPPER STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE SVR WX ANTICIPATED
THIS EVENING WILL TRACK ALONG THE MN/CANADIAN BORDER. IN THE WAVE
OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW ARND THIS SYSTEM...-SHRA AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THRU TUE.

AFT TUE...A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND INTO THE MIDWEST. MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE
AN INVERTED TROUGH TYPE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH
WILL LIMITED SVR WX...BUT KEEP CONDS UNSETTLED AND COOLER THAN
NORMAL. IN THE WAVE OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT A WARM-UP BY THE END
OF THE WEEK...ALONG ANOTHER CHC OF TSRA/SHRA.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO LIGHT UP ACROSS E NEB INTO SW MN AND NW WI
IN AREA OF VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHD OF SFC CDFNT NOW MOVING INTO W
MN. SFC WNDS HAVE TURNED WLY AT AQP/MML AND PQN.  MAIN SVR THREAT
WILL BE EAST OF THESE AREAS.  SFC LOW IS NEAR FAR WITH WARMFNT
EXTENDING SE FROM LOW TO NEAR PKD TO HYR. EXPECT TSTMS TO CONTINUE
TO BECOME MORE WDSPRD THIS EVENING AS BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
MOVE INTO AREA.  WEAK VORT MOVING NNE IN MOIST PLUME IS NOW IN NW IA
HELPING TO FIRE STORMS IN SC MN INTO NW WI.  MAINLY UPPER TROF IS
NOW SWINING ACRS CNTL INTO E NEB/KS FIRING STORMS IN SW MN INTO E
NEB WHICH WILL BE LIFTING NE ACRS AREA LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
THREAT OF TSTMS SLIGHT AT AXN AND EAU NEXT 8 HOURS...BUT GOOD AT
REMAINDER OF TAFS.  TSTMS WILL BE ENDING FROM SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT.
WLY WINDS BECOMING GUSTY TO 20-25KTS ON MONDAY BEHIND CDFNT.

KMSP...TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE WDSPRD AFT 02Z AS CONVECTION IN NEB/SW
MN LIFTS ACRS AREA.  EXPECT PRDS MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER STORMS.  DCAPE
VALUES HIGH ENUF FOR SOME TSTMS TO PRODUCE POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS
BEFORE 06Z.  MAIN AREA OF TSTMS SHUD BE NE OF MSP BY 08Z.  WLY WIDNS
GUSTING TO 20 KTS AFT 17Z.  VFR CU WILL DEVELOP BY 18Z...MAINLY SCT
BUT OCNL BKN040.

/OUTLOOK/
TUESDAY...MVFR/VFR. WINDS NW AT 15G25KT
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ANOKA-BENTON-BLUE
     EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-
     KANDIYOHI-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-
     NICOLLET-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-
     STEARNS-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT.

WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR POLK.

&&

JLT/BAP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1106 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
280945-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
1106 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

IT WILL BE HOT AND HUMID OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S. THE HEAT
INDEX WILL APPROACH NEAR 100 DEGREES OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS
TODAY IF YOU WORK OR SPEND EXTENSIVE TIME OUTSIDE.

IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE DAKOTAS.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE... AS WELL AS A FEW
TORNADOES. THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING TONIGHT AS THEY PASS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND FAR WESTERN WISCONSIN. FLOODING MAY ALSO DEVELOP
ALONG THE ALREADY SWOLLEN RIVERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A FEW NON SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AND
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1016 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0948 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 SW MILACA             45.69N 93.76W
05/27/2012                   MILLE LACS         MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREES DOWN ON BENTON AND MILLE LACS COUTNY LINE.

&&

CARLYON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1042 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

MNZ069-070-077-078-084-085-092-093-280430-
DAKOTA-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-RICE-SCOTT-STEELE-WASECA-
1042 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

AT 1039 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR NEW PRAGUE TO NEAR
JANESVILLE TO THE MINNESOTA LAKE AREA.  THEY WERE MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  BRUSH CREEK.
  VESELI.
  WARSAW.
  WASECA.
  WELLS.
  OTISCO.
  MONTGOMERY.
  WATERVILLE.

LAT...LON 4359 9394 4427 9343 4471 9354 4467 9279
      4419 9289 4419 9304 4370 9304 4352 9309
TIME...MOT...LOC 0341Z 270DEG 12KT 4471 9356 4427 9343
          4377 9384

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1049 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0818 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GAYLORD                 44.55N 94.22W
05/27/2012                   SIBLEY             MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE TREE DOWN ON DIVISION ST DOWNTOWN.

&&

CARLYON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1053 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0759 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE ARLINGTON          44.59N 94.05W
05/27/2012                   SIBLEY             MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER LINES DOWN.

&&

CARLYON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1100 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0831 PM     HAIL             BLAINE                  45.17N 93.21W
05/27/2012  M1.50 INCH       ANOKA              MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0830 PM     HAIL             3 WNW BLAINE            45.18N 93.26W
05/27/2012  M1.00 INCH       ANOKA              MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0820 PM     HAIL             2 ENE COON RAPIDS       45.19N 93.28W
05/27/2012  M0.88 INCH       ANOKA              MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0820 PM     HAIL             COON RAPIDS             45.17N 93.31W
05/27/2012  M0.88 INCH       ANOKA              MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0735 PM     HAIL             MINNEAPOLIS             44.96N 93.27W
05/27/2012  M0.88 INCH       HENNEPIN           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CARLYON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1105 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

MNZ060-063-070-077-078-085-093-WIZ024-280445-
DAKOTA-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-PIERCE-RICE-STEELE-WASHINGTON-
1105 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

AT 1103 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ROSEMOUNT TO DENNISON TO
CLARKS GROVE. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

SOME COMMUNITIES IN THEIR PATH INCLUDE CANNON FALLS...ZUMBROTA...
HASTINGS...ELLSWORTH...OWATONNA...NORTHFIELD...AND RED WING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 4357 9340 4437 9318 4484 9334 4484 9244
      4445 9231 4445 9241 4437 9242 4435 9254
      4419 9257 4419 9304 4354 9304
TIME...MOT...LOC 0404Z 270DEG 34KT 4476 9309 4437 9303
          4372 9330