Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
409 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2012

.UPDATE...
SEVERE STORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES HAVE
COLLIDED. THERE IS ALSO A DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO THAT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME...THE MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS ALSO COOL DOWN TO -10C. THIS WILL HELP TO CONTINUE
TO GENERATE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CWA THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL
9 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2012/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT)...
RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING WSW FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SLOWLY
SHIFTING SOUTHWARD OVER NRN FLORIDA WITH PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION IN ITS WAKE. THIS UPPER
TROUGH COMBINED WITH A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR TROUGH THAT WAS
ANALYZED EXTENDING WEST ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ONCE
AGAIN LATER TODAY. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH -9 C 500 MB TEMPS AND PRIMARILY LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE PROFILE WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS BEING LIGHTNING...PERIODS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL THROUGH THE MID-EVENING
PERIOD BEFORE TRENDING DOWN.

ON SATURDAY...THE MODELS INDICATE THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY AND
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
AND MUCH DRIER DEEP LAYER AIR SPREADING SOUTH INTO THE AREA THROUGH
THE COURSE OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...WE WILL KEEP ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA ALONG THE GULF COAST WHERE
THE BESTS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE EXPECTED BETWEEN THE NELY
FLOW AND THE AFTERNOON GULF COAST SEA BREEZE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MODEL PWAT VALUES CONTINUE TO
FALL AS THE DEEP LAYER DRY AIR SPREADS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH THIS DRY AIR AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SUPPRESS AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC MARINE AREAS AND THE EAST
COAST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIODS WHERE
THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL BE.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY-THURSDAY)
MODELS INDICATE RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO LIFT ENE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THIS TIME. THE BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN INLAND AND ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH THE
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING.

MARINE...
MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS AND DRIER AIR WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE
MARINE AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO BUILDING SEAS...MAINLY OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY ACROSS THE GULF STREAM
WHERE SEAS COULD REACH THE EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL. WINDS WILL
STEADILY SHIFT TOWARD THE EAST THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK AND REMAIN IN THE MODERATE RANGE THROUGH THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD DESPITE THE DRIER AIR SPREADING
SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  86  75  86 / 30 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  88  77  87 / 30 20 20 20
MIAMI            76  88  76  88 / 30 30 20 20
NAPLES           72  90  71  91 / 30 20 10 20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...85/AG
AVIATION/RADAR...30/KOB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
906 AM EDT FRI JUN 15 2012

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-160415-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
906 AM EDT FRI JUN 15 2012

...A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
EAST COAST BEACHES.

THUNDERSTORMS: CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
ENTIRE SOUTH FLORIDA AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST MIAMI-DADE COUNTY STRETCHING
NORTH INTO BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES AND INTO THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION. FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

WIND: THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS
OF 45 TO 55 MPH.

HAIL: THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF PENNIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH LIGHTNING AND DOWNPOURS
BEING THE MAIN IMPACTS. SOME OF THESE COULD BECOME STRONG AND EVEN
SEVERE.

THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES
THIS WEEKEND AS WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST AND INCREASE ALONG WITH AN
INCOMING SMALL NORTHEAST SWELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER INDIVIDUAL
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND, HAIL AND FLOODING TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

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