Severe Thunderstorm Warning 92, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
409 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2012

.UPDATE...
SEVERE STORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES HAVE
COLLIDED. THERE IS ALSO A DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO THAT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME...THE MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS ALSO COOL DOWN TO -10C. THIS WILL HELP TO CONTINUE
TO GENERATE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CWA THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL
9 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2012/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT)...
RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING WSW FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SLOWLY
SHIFTING SOUTHWARD OVER NRN FLORIDA WITH PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION IN ITS WAKE. THIS UPPER
TROUGH COMBINED WITH A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR TROUGH THAT WAS
ANALYZED EXTENDING WEST ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ONCE
AGAIN LATER TODAY. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH -9 C 500 MB TEMPS AND PRIMARILY LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE PROFILE WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS BEING LIGHTNING...PERIODS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL THROUGH THE MID-EVENING
PERIOD BEFORE TRENDING DOWN.

ON SATURDAY...THE MODELS INDICATE THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY AND
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
AND MUCH DRIER DEEP LAYER AIR SPREADING SOUTH INTO THE AREA THROUGH
THE COURSE OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...WE WILL KEEP ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA ALONG THE GULF COAST WHERE
THE BESTS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE EXPECTED BETWEEN THE NELY
FLOW AND THE AFTERNOON GULF COAST SEA BREEZE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MODEL PWAT VALUES CONTINUE TO
FALL AS THE DEEP LAYER DRY AIR SPREADS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH THIS DRY AIR AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SUPPRESS AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC MARINE AREAS AND THE EAST
COAST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIODS WHERE
THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL BE.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY-THURSDAY)
MODELS INDICATE RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO LIFT ENE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THIS TIME. THE BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN INLAND AND ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH THE
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING.

MARINE...
MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS AND DRIER AIR WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE
MARINE AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO BUILDING SEAS...MAINLY OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY ACROSS THE GULF STREAM
WHERE SEAS COULD REACH THE EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL. WINDS WILL
STEADILY SHIFT TOWARD THE EAST THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK AND REMAIN IN THE MODERATE RANGE THROUGH THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD DESPITE THE DRIER AIR SPREADING
SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  86  75  86 / 30 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  88  77  87 / 30 20 20 20
MIAMI            76  88  76  88 / 30 30 20 20
NAPLES           72  90  71  91 / 30 20 10 20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...85/AG
AVIATION/RADAR...30/KOB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
449 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2012

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
161200-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
449 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
ENTIRE SOUTH FLORIDA AREA THIS EVENING.

WIND: THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS
OF 45 TO 55 MPH.

HAIL: THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF PENNIES.

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
EAST COAST BEACHES.

THUNDERSTORMS: CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTH FLORIDA AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

WIND: THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS
UP TO 70 MPH.

HAIL: THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

FLOODING: THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MINOR
STREET FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH LIGHTNING AND DOWNPOURS
BEING THE MAIN IMPACTS. SOME OF THESE COULD BECOME STRONG AND EVEN
SEVERE.

THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES
THIS WEEKEND AS WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST AND INCREASE ALONG WITH AN
INCOMING SMALL NORTHEAST SWELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

BAXTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
447 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HAIL             2 E CORAL GABLES        25.73N 80.24W
06/15/2012  E1.75 INCH       MIAMI-DADE         FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TIME OF THE EVENT CORRECTED...GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL
            REPORTED AT COCONUT GROVE.

&&

RIVERA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
454 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2012

FLZ063-066-152145-
GLADES FL HENDRY FL
454 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN GLADES COUNTY
  EXTREME NORTHWESTERN HENDRY COUNTY

* UNTIL 545 PM EDT

* AT 448 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES WEST OF VENUS...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST
  AT 20 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
  PALMDALE...
  MUSE...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH...UP
TO NICKEL-SIZED HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF
THESE ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT FOR ADDITIONAL
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FRIDAY
EVENING FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

LAT...LON 2704 8132 2691 8116 2675 8157 2703 8157
      2704 8156
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 337DEG 18KT 2707 8156

JE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
508 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2012

FLZ073-074-152145-
INLAND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL METROPOLITAN MIAMI DADE FL
508 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY

* UNTIL 545 PM EDT

* AT 505 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DORAL...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
  MIAMI SPRINGS...
  SWEETWATER...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND UP TO
NICKEL SIZED HAIL. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER
IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. SEEK SHELTER
IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2584 8027 2572 8034 2582 8048 2596 8041
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 356DEG 17KT 2582 8039

KOB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
516 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     TSTM WND DMG     OAKLAND PARK            26.17N 80.14W
06/15/2012                   BROWARD            FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED A 6FT TALL TREE UPROOTED NEAR NW
            31 ST.

&&

RIVERA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
517 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     HAIL             DORAL                   25.84N 80.36W
06/15/2012  E0.25 INCH       MIAMI-DADE         FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZED HAIL REPORTED NEAR NW 41 ST AND THE TURNPIKE.

&&

RIVERA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
552 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 PM     HAIL             11 S DEVILS GARDEN      26.45N 81.12W
06/15/2012  E2.75 INCH       HENDRY             FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BASEBALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED NEAR SR 833 AND SR 846 IN
            HENDRY COUNTY.

&&

RIVERA