Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
723 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2012

.AVIATION...WL EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SLIGHT
THREAT OF TSTMS MOVING CLOSE TO KPBI LATER THIS EVENING AND A FEW
SHWRS CLOSE TO KFLL, KMIA. SFC WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND
MOSTLY VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH SEA BREEZES DOMINATING ONCE AGAIN
FROM MID-MORNING FRIDAY ON. A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS COULD DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY, BUT WL KEEP THEM OUT OF
THE TAFS FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2012/

DISCUSSION...
SEA BREEZES MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR
ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA. WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT BELOW 70 ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE REGION...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THERE. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED ACTIVITY NEAR THE
LAKE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPES
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. PATCHY FOG
COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE THIS EVENING...BUT
POTENTIAL IS LOW SO LEFT OUT OF FORECAST.

AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACH THE AREA...THE FORECAST
MODELS INDICATE HIGHER MOISTURE (NEAR NORMAL)...HEALTHIER LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INCREASED INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY AFTER
18Z. THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTHEAST SO
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST. SO
CHANCE POPS 30-40 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS
THROUGH THE REGION BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CLEAR THE REGION BY
SATURDAY EVENING...WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. 30 POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED ON
SATURDAY. ONLY 20 POPS ON SUNDAY DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY...AND PWATS DROP TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
UNDER THE NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL ALSO TIGHTEN DURING THIS PERIOD...RESULTING IN BREEZY
CONDITIONS AS A BROAD TROUGH LINGERS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. MARINE SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOME ALSO AFFECTING THE EAST
COAST...PARTICULARLY AT NIGHT AS COASTAL CONVERGENCE INCREASES.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST WILL KEEP ANY DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...INDICATIONS ARE THAT SOME MOISTURE MAY START SURGING
NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S EAST AND THE LOW TO MID 90S WEST.

AVIATION...
EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CU FIELD
BECOMING MORE ENHANCED DUE TO THE LAKE/EAST COAST BREEZES MERGING
ACROSS EASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY. AS A RESULT...WILL START THE
PERIOD OUT WITH TSRA WORDING AND A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE PBI SITE AS
A FEW DEVELOPING SHOWERS/TSTMS BECOME A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE
MID-AFTN PERIOD. THE LOCALLY RUN WRF/HRRR INDICATES MAINLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING WITH THE
BEST CHANCE REMAINING INLAND AND AROUND THE LAKE REGION THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE TRENDING BACK DOWN THROUGH THE
NIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN ONSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD...THEN BECOME VRB AND EVEN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT
PERIOD. FOR FRIDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
WILL CONTINUE SOUTH INTO THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS ONCE AGAIN. JUST HOW FAR THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES IT SOUTH WILL BE THE MAIN QUESTION AS TO
EXACTLY WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL INITIATE AS NORTHERLY WINDS AND
DRIER AIR SPREAD SOUTH IN ITS WAKE. 85/AG

MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE A BIT STRONGER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. IN ADDITION, A
NORTHEAST SWELL OF 2 TO 3 FEET MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  86  73  85 / 40 30 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  88  74  86 / 30 30 20 30
MIAMI            77  90  74  87 / 20 30 20 30
NAPLES           76  90  74  89 / 10 40 20 30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...54/BNB
AVIATION/RADAR...47/RGH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
347 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2012

AMZ610-630-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-150415-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-
METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-
METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-
COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-
FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
347 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2012

...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTERIOR/EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FOCUSED ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND EAST COAST WHERE A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP.

WIND: A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN WINDS UP TO 50 MPH.

HAIL: A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE.

FLOODING: LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE INTERIOR AND EAST
COAST WHERE THUNDERSTORMS FOCUS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES
THIS WEEKEND AS WINDS INCREASE WHILE BECOMING NORTHEAST ALONG
WITH AN INCOMING SMALL NORTHEAST SWELL.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH LIGHTING AND DOWNPOURS
BEING THE MAIN IMPACTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER
INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND, HAIL AND
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

GREGORIA

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