Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
318 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

.UPDATE...

UPDATE TO THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012/

DISCUSSION...

CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90F ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER...WITH MAINLY 80S ACROSS THE EASTERN
MIDSOUTH COUNTIES. SOUTH WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY WEST OF THE RIVER
AND LIGHTER TO THE EAST. HEAT INDICES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SHORT TERM ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
LIMITED TO POINTS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE FORTY THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET WITH THE
FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

MODELS ARE GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT NOW DRAPED FROM
CENTRAL IOWA TO WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
MIDSOUTH COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAKING ITS WAY TO THE MEMPHIS
AREA TOWARDS SUNRISE. INTENSITY NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AT THIS
TIME...AND COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. A
BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S. POCKETS OF CAPE EXCEEDING 3000J/KG SEEMS REASONABLE
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT HOW MUCH SEVERE COVERAGE AT THIS POINT
IS STILL IN QUESTION AS BOTH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL HAVE TO
ERODE AND UPPER FORCING IS LAGGING BACK INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND PULSE TYPE STORM MODES SEEM MOST
FAVORABLE AS MID LEVEL WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN WEAK OVER THE
AREA. FOR THIS REASON THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW MONDAY NIGHT
AND ON TUESDAY KEEPING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
FORECAST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE FORTY. FURTHER NORTH DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL
ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS AND DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S...AS BOTH
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AND COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SPRING LIKE
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER COUNTIES AND FORESTED REGIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WITH 50S ELSEWHERE.

NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS BACK THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO THE WEST ON
SATURDAY WITH BOTH A WEAK COLD FRONT PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH AND A
WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES OVERHEAD. HAVE LEFT SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THE AREA WILL LAG IN GULF MOISTURE
RECOVERY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

20Z TAF UPDATE

VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AT THE TAF SITES. SCATTERED CUMULUS BASED AROUND 4KFT WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND EVENTUALLY OCCUR AT ALL TAF SITES.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AND ARE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. ANOTHER
BOUNDARY IS POSITIONED NEAR KMKL WITH TOWERING CU NOTED. HAVE
ADDED A VCTS THIS AFTERNOON FOR BOTH KTUP AND KMKL IN PROXIMITY TO
ONGOING STORMS AND BOUNDARIES. ANY REMAINING STORMS AND CUMULUS SHOULD
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING OVER
THE TAF SITES FROM WEST TO EAST.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL MOVE EAST AND BEGIN TO EFFECT KJBR LATE TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION. THE HIGHEST CHANCES PRIOR TO 18Z WILL REMAIN AT
KJBR AND KMEM. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR THUNDER AT THESE LOCATIONS
FOR MONDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE WILL MAINTAIN VCTS AS COVERAGE
SHOULD NOT INCREASE UNTIL LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

JLH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  72  88  68  81 /  20  60  60  20
MKL  66  86  63  80 /  30  60  60  20
JBR  70  87  63  79 /  40  60  50   0
TUP  68  89  66  85 /  20  50  70  40

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
258 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-072200-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
258 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED STORMS MAY REACH STRONG TO SEVERE LIMITS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS A
SECONDARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL THE
MIDSOUTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT..

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI AND MAY BE REQUESTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
ENTIRE MIDSOUTH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

JAB

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
611 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

MSZ024-062345-
MONROE MS-
611 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 645 PM CDT FOR...

  NORTHERN MONROE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED OVER AMORY AT 612 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH.

PEOPLE IN MONROE COUNTY...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR AMORY...SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3383 8828 3393 8861 3409 8855 3409 8848
      3404 8820
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 286DEG 11KT 3399 8847

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
631 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

ARZ028-MOZ113-115-070000-
MISSISSIPPI AR-DUNKLIN MO-PEMISCOT MO-
631 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR...

  NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  SOUTHEASTERN DUNKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...
  SOUTHWESTERN PEMISCOT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF GOSNELL AT 632 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN DUNKLIN...MISSISSIPPI AND PEMISCOT COUNTIES...INCLUDING
LOCATIONS NEAR BLYTHEVILLE...GOSNELL AND STEELE...SHOULD MONITOR THIS
STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3622 8993 3607 8973 3587 8999 3600 9015
TIME...MOT...LOC 2332Z 223DEG 11KT 3600 8999