Severe Thunderstorm Warning 174, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
230 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

.DISCUSSION...

CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90F ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER...WITH MAINLY 80S ACROSS THE EASTERN
MIDSOUTH COUNTIES. SOUTH WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY WEST OF THE RIVER
AND LIGHTER TO THE EAST. HEAT INDICES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SHORT TERM ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
LIMITED TO POINTS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE FORTY THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET WITH THE
FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

MODELS ARE GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT NOW DRAPED FROM
CENTRAL IOWA TO WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
MIDSOUTH COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAKING ITS WAY TO THE MEMPHIS
AREA TOWARDS SUNRISE. INTENSITY NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AT THIS
TIME...AND COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. A
BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S. POCKETS OF CAPE EXCEEDING 3000J/KG SEEMS REASONABLE
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT HOW MUCH SEVERE COVERAGE AT THIS POINT
IS STILL IN QUESTION AS BOTH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL HAVE TO
ERODE AND UPPER FORCING IS LAGGING BACK INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND PULSE TYPE STORM MODES SEEM MOST
FAVORABLE AS MID LEVEL WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN WEAK OVER THE
AREA. FOR THIS REASON THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW MONDAY NIGHT
AND ON TUESDAY KEEPING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
FORECAST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE FORTY. FURTHER NORTH DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL
ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS AND DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S...AS BOTH
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AND COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SPRING LIKE
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER COUNTIES AND FORESTED REGIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WITH 50S ELSEWHERE.

NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS BACK THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO THE WEST ON
SATURDAY WITH BOTH A WEAK COLD FRONT PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH AND A
WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES OVERHEAD. HAVE LEFT SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THE AREA WILL LAG IN GULF MOISTURE
RECOVERY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SCATTERED CUMULUS BASED AROUND 4KFT WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI AND EVENTUALLY OCCUR AT ALL TAF SITES. ANY CU SHOULD
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING OVER
THE TAF SITES FROM WEST TO EAST.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL MOVE EAST AND BEGIN TO EFFECT KJBR LATE TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION. THE HIGHEST CHANCES PRIOR TO 18Z WILL REMAIN AT
KJBR AND KMEM. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR THUNDER AT THESE LOCATIONS
FOR MONDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE WILL MAINTAIN VCTS AS COVERAGE
SHOULD NOT INCREASE UNTIL LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

JLH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  72  88  68  81 /  20  60  60  20
MKL  66  86  63  80 /  30  60  60  20
JBR  70  87  63  79 /  40  60  50   0
TUP  68  89  66  85 /  20  50  70  40

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
145 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-072045-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
145 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL THE
MIDSOUTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT..

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

JAB