Severe Thunderstorm Warning 369, NWS Memphis, TN

585 
WWUS54 KMEG 132251
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
551 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2012

MSC107-135-161-132315-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0369.000000T0000Z-120813T2315Z/
YALOBUSHA MS-TALLAHATCHIE MS-PANOLA MS-
551 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN PANOLA...NORTHEASTERN TALLAHATCHIE AND YALOBUSHA
COUNTIES...

AT 550 PM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING
GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GEORGE PAYNE STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 15 
MPH. PUBLIC REPORTS OF GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL NEAR POPE IN THE LAST 20 
MINUTES.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WATER
VALLEY...SHUFORD AND GEORGE PAYNE STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

&&

LAT...LON 3416 9005 3425 8999 3421 8972 3419 8972
      3420 8968 3419 8964 3417 8956 3395 8968
TIME...MOT...LOC 2250Z 288DEG 12KT 3417 8989

$$

217 
WWUS54 KMEG 132312
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
612 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2012

MSC107-135-161-132322-
/O.EXP.KMEG.SV.W.0369.000000T0000Z-120813T2315Z/
YALOBUSHA MS-TALLAHATCHIE MS-PANOLA MS-
612 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN PANOLA...
NORTHEASTERN TALLAHATCHIE AND YALOBUSHA COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 615
PM CDT...

AT 612 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED...AND NO
LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3416 9005 3425 8999 3421 8972 3419 8972
      3420 8968 3419 8964 3417 8956 3395 8968
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 288DEG 12KT 3415 8981

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
226 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2012

.DISCUSSION...

MORNING CONVECTION HAS MOVED EAST OF THE MIDSOUTH AS EXPECTED WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
STRETCHES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHEAST TX. THE FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH WALNUT RIDGE ARKANSAS AND IS APPROACHING JONESBORO.

STILL THINK THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...ALTHOUGH THE SITUATION IS NOT CLEAR CUT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EAST OF THE MIDSOUTH
WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT NOW LIMITED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY IS ALSO SHOWING VERY DRY AIR ALOFT MOVING INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR IS PUSHING INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS. TEMPERATURES
IN NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AR ARE MOVING INTO THE LOWER 90S AND
SURFACE BASED CAPES HAVE INCREASED TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 2500 J/KG AND
LIFTED INDICES HAVE DECREASED TO ABOUT MINUS 6.

LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH (HRRR) MODEL INDICATES THAT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO FORM ALONG THE
COLD FRONT BY 3 OR 4 PM...THEN BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS
THE STORMS MOVE EAST OF THE MS RIVER BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME QUITE
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 32000 AND 4200 J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES DECREASING TO MINUS
8. ALTHOUGH...THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES THE STORMS WILL STRUGGLE IN
COVERAGE WITH SUCH DRY AIR ALOFT LIMITING THE MOISTURE.
ALTHOUGH...THE DRY AIR ALOFT WILL ENHANCE THE DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL
WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS.
LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST NEAR THE MS RIVER BY LATE
AFTERNOON...THEN WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH
TONIGHT. THINK THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL END BY LATE EVENING.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE EARLIER FORECAST CONCERNING TUESDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD OVER THE
MIDSOUTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR GOOD DIURNAL SPREADS IN
TEMPERATURES WITH RELATIVELY COOL NIGHTS AND VERY WARM AFTERNOONS.

A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY WITH
VERY UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIR SPREADING BACK OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL
CAUSE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH
THE REGION FRIDAY INCREASING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTH MS SATURDAY BUT
OTHERWISE KEPT WITH A RAINFREE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
MONDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME QUESTION HOW FAR THE COLD FRONT WILL
SETTLE SOUTHWARD BECOMING STALLING...SO SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AR AND NORTH MS INTO
SUNDAY.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT TAF SITES FOR THIS TAF PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AGAIN AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RANGE FROM
10-12 KTS THIS AFTERNOON VEER NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE AT MKL/TUP
BETWEEN 14/08-12Z.

SWC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  70  88  68  93 /  20   0  10  10
MKL  66  86  59  90 /  30  10  10  10
JBR  65  87  62  92 /  10   0  10  10
TUP  71  89  65  91 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
130 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2012

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-141100-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
130 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MIDSOUTH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE AFFECTED
AREA IS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM AROUND KENNETT
MISSOURI TO HARRISBURG ARKANSAS TO PHILLIPS COUNTY ARKANSAS.
THERE WILL BE AN ENHANCED RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA.

JCL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
343 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2012

ARZ027-132115-
POINSETT AR-
343 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 415 PM CDT FOR...

  EASTERN POINSETT COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TRUMANN AT 343 PM
CDT...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

PEOPLE IN POINSETT COUNTY...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR LEPANTO...MARKED
TREE...TRUMANN AND TYRONZA...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

.A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ADVISORY
AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3570 9068 3569 9029 3562 9028 3545 9029
      3552 9071
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 278DEG 18KT 3560 9059

RRH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
426 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2012

MSZ006-132200-
TISHOMINGO MS-
426 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 500 PM CDT FOR...

  CENTRAL TISHOMINGO COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF MIDWAY AT 426 PM CDT...
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

PEOPLE IN TISHOMINGO COUNTY...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR IUKA...SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3480 8811 3474 8811 3467 8812 3467 8833
      3474 8833 3485 8834 3488 8810 3480 8810
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 266DEG 25KT 3477 8822