Severe Thunderstorm Warning 364, NWS Memphis, TN

364 
WWUS54 KMEG 132136
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
436 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2012

ARC107-MSC027-132200-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0364.000000T0000Z-120813T2200Z/
PHILLIPS AR-COAHOMA MS-
436 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR WEST CENTRAL COAHOMA AND SOUTHWESTERN PHILLIPS COUNTIES...

AT 436 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES
NORTHWEST OF WHITE RIVER NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ELAINE...
LAMBROOK...RATIO...CATRON...MELLWOOD...LUNDELL...MOSBY SPUR...HOOP
SPUR...EWAL AND WHITE RIVER NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

.A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALERT
AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3430 9107 3433 9106 3434 9105 3435 9101
      3440 9101 3436 9078 3425 9080 3415 9082
      3415 9084 3420 9108 3429 9108
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 299DEG 18KT 3428 9113

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
226 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2012

.DISCUSSION...

MORNING CONVECTION HAS MOVED EAST OF THE MIDSOUTH AS EXPECTED WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
STRETCHES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHEAST TX. THE FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH WALNUT RIDGE ARKANSAS AND IS APPROACHING JONESBORO.

STILL THINK THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...ALTHOUGH THE SITUATION IS NOT CLEAR CUT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EAST OF THE MIDSOUTH
WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT NOW LIMITED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY IS ALSO SHOWING VERY DRY AIR ALOFT MOVING INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR IS PUSHING INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS. TEMPERATURES
IN NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AR ARE MOVING INTO THE LOWER 90S AND
SURFACE BASED CAPES HAVE INCREASED TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 2500 J/KG AND
LIFTED INDICES HAVE DECREASED TO ABOUT MINUS 6.

LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH (HRRR) MODEL INDICATES THAT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO FORM ALONG THE
COLD FRONT BY 3 OR 4 PM...THEN BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS
THE STORMS MOVE EAST OF THE MS RIVER BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME QUITE
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 32000 AND 4200 J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES DECREASING TO MINUS
8. ALTHOUGH...THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES THE STORMS WILL STRUGGLE IN
COVERAGE WITH SUCH DRY AIR ALOFT LIMITING THE MOISTURE.
ALTHOUGH...THE DRY AIR ALOFT WILL ENHANCE THE DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL
WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS.
LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST NEAR THE MS RIVER BY LATE
AFTERNOON...THEN WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH
TONIGHT. THINK THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL END BY LATE EVENING.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE EARLIER FORECAST CONCERNING TUESDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD OVER THE
MIDSOUTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR GOOD DIURNAL SPREADS IN
TEMPERATURES WITH RELATIVELY COOL NIGHTS AND VERY WARM AFTERNOONS.

A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY WITH
VERY UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIR SPREADING BACK OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL
CAUSE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH
THE REGION FRIDAY INCREASING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTH MS SATURDAY BUT
OTHERWISE KEPT WITH A RAINFREE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
MONDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME QUESTION HOW FAR THE COLD FRONT WILL
SETTLE SOUTHWARD BECOMING STALLING...SO SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AR AND NORTH MS INTO
SUNDAY.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT TAF SITES FOR THIS TAF PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AGAIN AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RANGE FROM
10-12 KTS THIS AFTERNOON VEER NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE AT MKL/TUP
BETWEEN 14/08-12Z.

SWC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  70  88  68  93 /  20   0  10  10
MKL  66  86  59  90 /  30  10  10  10
JBR  65  87  62  92 /  10   0  10  10
TUP  71  89  65  91 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
130 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2012

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-141100-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
130 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MIDSOUTH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE AFFECTED
AREA IS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM AROUND KENNETT
MISSOURI TO HARRISBURG ARKANSAS TO PHILLIPS COUNTY ARKANSAS.
THERE WILL BE AN ENHANCED RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA.

JCL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1029 AM CDT MON AUG 13 2012

MSZ024-131615-
MONROE MS-
1029 AM CDT MON AUG 13 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1115 AM CDT FOR...

  SOUTHERN MONROE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED OVER PRAIRIE AT 1030 AM CDT...MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN MONROE COUNTY...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR ABERDEEN...SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3375 8824 3374 8825 3374 8832 3372 8832
      3368 8837 3366 8845 3366 8850 3368 8851
      3367 8872 3388 8872 3392 8822
TIME...MOT...LOC 1530Z 267DEG 24KT 3379 8860

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1034 AM CDT MON AUG 13 2012

MSZ005-006-TNZ055-091-092-131600-
TISHOMINGO MS-ALCORN MS-DECATUR TN-HARDIN TN-MCNAIRY TN-
1034 AM CDT MON AUG 13 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1100 AM CDT FOR...

  SOUTHERN DECATUR COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  EASTERN ALCORN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHERN TISHOMINGO COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHEASTERN MCNAIRY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND
WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTHEAST DECATUR COUNTY
THROUGH HARDIN AND EXTREME NORTHERN ALCORN AND TISHOMINGO COUNTIES
AT 1030 AM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN ALCORN...DECATUR...HARDIN...MCNAIRY AND TISHOMINGO
COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR CORINTH...IUKA...J P COLEMAN
STATE PARK...PICKWICK LANDING STATE PARK AND SAVANNAH...SHOULD
MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3538 8801 3531 8801 3529 8797 3501 8798
      3500 8819 3492 8815 3489 8809 3479 8811
      3479 8865 3569 8803 3567 8800 3560 8802
      3553 8797 3549 8798 3544 8804 3541 8796
TIME...MOT...LOC 1530Z 270DEG 26KT 3523 8821

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
343 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2012

ARZ027-132115-
POINSETT AR-
343 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 415 PM CDT FOR...

  EASTERN POINSETT COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TRUMANN AT 343 PM
CDT...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

PEOPLE IN POINSETT COUNTY...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR LEPANTO...MARKED
TREE...TRUMANN AND TYRONZA...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

.A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ADVISORY
AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3570 9068 3569 9029 3562 9028 3545 9029
      3552 9071
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 278DEG 18KT 3560 9059

RRH