Special Weather Statement, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
659 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

.AVIATION...20/00Z TAF CYCLE

SCTD/NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA CONTS TO DROP SLOLY SWD ACRS NRN AR ATTM.
EXPECT OVERALL WEAKENING TREND IN THE NEXT FEW HRS WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. A FEW STORMS STILL LINGER ACRS CNTRL AR...WITH
VCTS MENTIONED AT KLIT EARLY THIS EVENING. MOST OTHER FCST SITES
SHLD NOT BE IMPACTED BY CONVECTION...SO VFR CONDS WL CONT THRU
MUCH OF THE PD. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REFORM ON FRI...
MAINLY ACRS CNTRL AND SRN AR...AS A FNTL BNDRY DROPS SWD INTO AR
AND INTERACTS WITH RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BNDRY/S. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE PULSE-TYPE
STORMS. SOME OF THE STRONGER ONES WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY AS THEY COLLAPSE. THE STORMS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO
ARKANSAS BY FRIDAY MORNING. PRE-FRONTAL HEATING AND MOISTURE/
INSTABILITY POOLING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. SIMILAR TO TODAY/S SETUP...
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS...AND COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED OR SCATTERED.

DRIER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE IN AND
STALL/WASH OUT OVER THE AREA. THE DRIER AIR WILL HANG ON THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS...WITH AR JUST ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE CENTER OF THIS
RIDGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWA FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ON
MON. BEYOND THAT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BROADEN ENOUGH THAT POPS
WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OF OUT FORECAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST. WHILE SOME ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE...CHANCES TOO LIMITED TO MENTION PRECIP AT
THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL ALSO BE ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER
70S.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-
FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-
JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
625 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-201000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
625 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTH ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE DROPS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. SOME STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
MAIN THREAT.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN SPOTTY IN NATURE. HOWEVER...
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

THERE IS A HIGH WILDFIRE DANGER DUE TO CONTINUING DROUGHT CONDITIONS
AND DRY VEGETATION. MOST COUNTIES HAVE BURN BANS IN PLACE. OUTDOOR
BURNING OF ANY KIND IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DROP SOUTH THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
WILL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME BRIEFLY SEVERE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT.

SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND A WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE. THIS
WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE STATE THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WILL REMAIN IN HIGHER MOISTURE...WITH
AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM MORE POSSIBLE.

THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND 100 DEGREES.
HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 110 THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE
HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE WHERE
HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

56/62/44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
801 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

ARZ012-021-200145-
JOHNSON AR-NEWTON AR-
801 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN NEWTON AND NORTHERN
JOHNSON COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

AT 757 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
A THUNDERSTORM WAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF UPPER
BUFFALO WILDERNESS AREA...OR 8 MILES WEST OF LOST VALLEY SP...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LOST VALLEY SP...     WALNUT...
  UPPER BUFFALO WILDERNESS AREA...            DEVILS KNOB...
  WAYTON...             SWAIN...              SALUS...
  PONCA...              NAIL...               MOSSVILLE...
  FALLSVILLE...         DEER...               COWELL...
  CATALPA...            BOXLEY...             TAYLOR MTN...
  STOVERVILLE...        SHILOH MTN...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3610 9346 3580 9313 3566 9353 3577 9357
      3577 9352 3588 9353 3589 9351 3595 9350
      3596 9347 3600 9345 3607 9345 3608 9349
TIME...MOT...LOC 0101Z 332DEG 23KT 3598 9351

44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
814 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0742 PM     TSTM WND GST     LITTLE ROCK AIR FORCE B 34.92N 92.15W
07/19/2012  M54 MPH          PULASKI            AR   OTHER FEDERAL

&&

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
828 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

ARZ043-044-200215-
PULASKI AR-SALINE AR-
828 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SALINE AND WESTERN
PULASKI COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM CDT...

AT 827 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF LAKE NORRELL...OR 13 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF LAKE MAUMELLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LAKE NORRELL...       PARON...              GRAPE...
  CONGO...              BLAND...              AVILLA...
  SCHOOLHOUSE MTN...    KENTUCKY...           JENNINGS MTN...
  HORSESHOE MTN...      COLE MTN...           COLD SPRING MTN...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3469 9246 3456 9268 3477 9279 3482 9271
TIME...MOT...LOC 0129Z 317DEG 13KT 3474 9271

225

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
951 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0856 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ICO                     34.45N 92.35W
07/19/2012                   GRANT              AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DAMAGE TO A HOUSE WAS REPORTED IN THE TOWN OF ICO.

&&

225

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1120 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

ARZ021-030-200505-
JOHNSON AR-LOGAN AR-
1120 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN LOGAN AND WESTERN
JOHNSON COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT...

AT 1116 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTH OF HORSEHEAD LAKE...OR 16 MILES
NORTHWEST OF CLARKSVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WOODLAND...           SCRANTON...           HOYT...
  HORSEHEAD LAKE...     HINKLE...             HARTMAN...
  YALE...               UNION CITY...         ROSEVILLE...
  OARK...               MORRISON BLUFF...     HUNT...
  HARMONY...            FRILEY...             COAL HILL...
  CATALPA...            WOLF PEN REC AREA...  WHITE OAK...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 44 AND 55.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3538 9375 3537 9372 3538 9371 3571 9371
      3576 9369 3572 9347 3533 9354 3537 9374
      3538 9374 3537 9375 3538 9382 3542 9381
TIME...MOT...LOC 0421Z 013DEG 14KT 3565 9361

56

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1121 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

ARZ012-021-200505-
JOHNSON AR-NEWTON AR-
1121 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN NEWTON AND EXTREME
NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT...

AT 1120 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTH OF LOST VALLEY SP...MOVING SOUTH
AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LOST VALLEY SP...     WALNUT...
  UPPER BUFFALO WILDERNESS AREA...            SWAIN...
  SALUS...              PONCA...              NAIL...
  MOSSVILLE...          LOW GAP...            FALLSVILLE...
  BOXLEY...             TAYLOR MTN...         STOVERVILLE...
  STEEL CREEK...        SHILOH MTN...         RYKER...
  REEVES...             PAXTON KNOB...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3607 9329 3574 9323 3573 9353 3589 9352
      3589 9351 3595 9350 3598 9346 3606 9345
TIME...MOT...LOC 0422Z 357DEG 9KT 3597 9340

JGOUDS