Severe Thunderstorm Warning 255, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
240 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
IF YOU WANT A BREAK FROM HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES...YOU/RE IN LUCK.
HOWEVER...IF YOU WANT A BREAK FROM NEAR TRIPLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES...
WELL...YOU/RE OUT OF LUCK.

SURFACE DATA SHOWING A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS. DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED THINGS TO MIX OUT
QUITE A BIT...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES FROM 105 TO NEAR 110 IN
MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...PRIMARILY NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS IS THE CASE ON THESE TYPES OF
DAYS...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BRIEFLY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.

FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL
BE A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION NEAR
THE REMNANTS IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH
HIGHS PEAKING NEAR 100...AND LOWS REMAINING IN THE 70S. MAXIMUM
HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 105...THOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY TEETER NEAR THAT. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
WE CAN ALLOW THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. BY NEXT
WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AGAIN...WITH HUMIDITY INCREASING AS
WELL.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...THIS UPPER
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE DROPPING
SE OVER THE SERN CONUS BY LATE NEXT WEEK. EVEN WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT
IN THE LOCATION OF THIS UPPER RIDGE...AR WILL REMAIN UNDER INFLUENCE
OF THIS FEATURE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MAINLY
ONLY ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
AROUND 100...AND LOWS IN THE 70S.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     71  97  73  99 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         77  99  78  96 /  30  20  10  20
HARRISON AR       69  96  70 100 /  10  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    77 100  76  98 /  20  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  76  98  76  99 /  20  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     77  97  76  96 /  30  20  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      72  98  75  97 /  20  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  68  97  68 101 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        70  97  73  98 /  10  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     75  97  76  95 /  20  10  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   73 101  75 100 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         73  96  73  96 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      73  96  76  96 /  20  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.

&&

SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...62

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2012

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-211000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LOCATED ALONG THE ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI
BORDER THIS MORNING...WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT
TWENTY FOUR HOURS. THIS FRONT...IN COMBINATION WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM THURSDAYS ACTIVITY...WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING LATE THIS MORNING. THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME BRIEFLY SEVERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

ANOTHER SCORCHING DAY IS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE. IN SPITE OF THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL SURPASS
THE CENTURY MARK JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE ACROSS THE STATE. THESE HOT
TEMPERATURES...WHEN COMBINED WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS...WILL
PRODUCE HEAT INDICES IN EXCESS OF 105 DEGREES. SOME AREAS WILL SEE
HEAT INDICES OVER 110 DEGREES.

A HIGH WILDFIRE DANGER CONTINUES DUE TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND DRY
VEGETATION. MOST COUNTIES HAVE BURN BANS IN PLACE. OUTDOOR BURNING
OF ANY KIND IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTH BEHIND
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
STATE THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WILL
REMAIN IN HIGHER MOISTURE...WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM MORE POSSIBLE.

THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND 100 DEGREES.
HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 110 THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE
HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE WHERE
HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN.

THE WILDFIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN AS HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND DRY VEGETATION
CONTINUE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

56