Alert archive / Arkansas / Special Weather Statements in 2012

Special Weather Statement, NWS Little Rock, AR

May 7, 2012Scott County, Arkansas

NWS Little Rock, AR issued this special weather statement at May 7, 2012, 3:17 PM CDT for Scott County, Arkansas. It was in force for 43 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 7, 2012, 3:17 PM CDT (20:17 UTC)
Expired: May 7, 2012, 4:00 PM CDT
In force: 43 min
Issued by: NWS Little Rock, AR

County Scott County, AR

The radar

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 57 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Shreveport, LA (KSHV), launched 12:00Z, 8.3 hours before the alert went out and 260 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 746 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -132 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1458 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 5 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -54 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -19 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at May 7, 2:46 PM CDT, 31 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 7, 2:46 PM CDT, 31 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
246 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
LATEST SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE COLD FRONT HAS
REACHED A LINE FROM NEAR MOUNTAIN HOME...TO JUST NORTH OF FORT
SMITH. RECENT INSTABILITY ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE EFFECT
OF CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING DUE TO THE MCS OF THIS MORNING.

FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE QUITE WEAK. HOWEVER...SFC
BASED CAPE ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA IS CURRENTLY >3000
J/KG. IF STORMS CAN INITIATE...DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE QUITE EXPLOSIVE.

THE BOUNDARY SHOULD STALL NEAR THE ARKANSAS...LOUISIANA BORDER
EARLY TUESDAY...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. MUCH DRIER...COOLER...AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL DURING THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A CUT OFF LOW OVER TEXAS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION IN TIME TO INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO DROP DOWN INTO ARKANSAS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WARRANTED AT
LEAST SMALL CHANCE POPS...AT LEAST UNTIL DETAILS ARE MORE FINE TUNED
IN LATER MODEL RUNS. LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE THIS FRONT WILL BE
PUSHED SOUTH OF THE FA SOMETIME ON MONDAY. BOTTOM LINE...UNSETTLED
WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN NORTHWEST FLOW BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...DROPPING A FEW DEGREES BELOW AFTER THE FROPA.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     59  78  53  77 /  20  20   0   0
CAMDEN AR         64  80  58  78 /  30  30  30  20
HARRISON AR       54  73  47  73 /  10  10   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    61  78  54  78 /  30  20  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  63  80  56  78 /  30  20  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     65  82  59  78 /  30  30  30  20
MOUNT IDA AR      59  77  52  77 /  20  20  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  56  75  49  75 /  20  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        61  79  55  77 /  20  20   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     64  81  59  78 /  30  30  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   60  77  51  76 /  20  20  10  10
SEARCY AR         61  79  55  78 /  20  20  10  10
STUTTGART AR      64  80  58  78 /  30  20  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...55 / LONG TERM...61

Hazardous weather outlook, May 7, 11:22 AM CDT, 3 hours 55 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1122 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-081000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1122 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MENA...TO DUMAS.

INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MAXIMIZED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT REACH SEVERE LIMITS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...BRIEF...BUT INTENSE WIND GUSTS...AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN ARKANSAS ON
TUESDAY.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED...ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA...MAINLY BETWEEN 3 PM AND 9 PM MONDAY.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

55

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 7, 9:21 AM CDT, 5 hours 56 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
921 AM CDT MON MAY 07 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 AM     HEAVY RAIN       CLARENDON               34.70N 91.31W
05/07/2012  M4.40 INCH       MONROE             AR   CO-OP OBSERVER

            COOP MEASURED 4.40 INCHES OF RAIN.

&&

224

Local storm report, May 7, 11:48 AM CDT, 3 hours 29 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1148 AM CDT MON MAY 07 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 AM     TSTM WND DMG     DES ARC                 34.98N 91.51W
05/07/2012                   PRAIRIE            AR   CO-OP OBSERVER

            TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN ON POWERLINES.

&&

224

Special weather statement, May 7, 3:17 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
317 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

ARZ037-040-072100-
POLK AR-SCOTT AR-
317 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN SCOTT AND NORTHERN POLK
COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

AT 316 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
A THUNDERSTORM WAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING 2 MILES EAST OF BLACK FORK
MTN...OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF MENA...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WALDRON...            MENA...
  QUEEN WILHELMINA SP...                      MOUNTAIN FORK...
  MORGAN SPRINGS...     LAKE WILHELMINA...    LAKE MENA...
  LAKE HINKLE...        BEAUCHAMP...          WINFIELD...
  ROCKY...              RICH MTN...           INK...
  HOWARD...             HON...                EAGLETON...
  BLACK FORK...         ACORN...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3496 9409 3457 9408 3456 9446 3488 9445
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 253DEG 13KT 3472 9433

44

The office that day

Everything else NWS Little Rock, AR issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 7, 3:19 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Cleburne	31 min
May 7, 3:30 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Fulton, Izard, Sharp	60 min
May 7, 3:40 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Independence, Jackson	60 min
May 7, 3:48 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Cleburne	47 min
May 7, 3:53 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Cleburne	37 min
May 7, 4:20 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	White	30 min
May 7, 4:37 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Fulton, Izard, Sharp	58 min
May 7, 4:49 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Monroe, Woodruff	46 min
May 7, 4:59 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Jackson, White	56 min
May 7, 5:20 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	White	25 min
May 7, 5:47 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	White, Woodruff	13 min
May 7, 5:51 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Monroe, Prairie, White, Woodruff	24 min
May 7, 5:59 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Monroe	46 min
May 7, 6:14 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	LZK	Jackson, Woodruff	3 hr
May 7, 6:15 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Lonoke, Prairie, White, Woodruff	45 min
May 7, 6:21 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	LZK	Monroe, Woodruff	3 hr
May 7, 6:53 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Monroe	57 min
May 7, 6:58 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Monroe, Prairie	47 min
May 7, 9:26 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	LZK	Monroe, Prairie	86 min
May 7, 3:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Polk, Scott	44 min
May 7, 3:36 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Polk	44 min
May 7, 3:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Montgomery, Polk	47 min
May 7, 4:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Polk	46 min
May 7, 4:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Pike	47 min
May 7, 5:06 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Dallas	44 min
May 7, 5:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Dallas	47 min
May 7, 5:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Clark, Pike	43 min
May 7, 5:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Dallas	50 min
May 7, 6:20 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Clark	45 min
May 7, 6:25 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Ouachita	45 min
May 7, 6:47 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Lincoln	43 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Arkansas, 2012 Every special weather statement in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.