Severe Thunderstorm Warning 107, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
246 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
LATEST SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE COLD FRONT HAS
REACHED A LINE FROM NEAR MOUNTAIN HOME...TO JUST NORTH OF FORT
SMITH. RECENT INSTABILITY ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE EFFECT
OF CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING DUE TO THE MCS OF THIS MORNING.

FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE QUITE WEAK. HOWEVER...SFC
BASED CAPE ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA IS CURRENTLY >3000
J/KG. IF STORMS CAN INITIATE...DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE QUITE EXPLOSIVE.

THE BOUNDARY SHOULD STALL NEAR THE ARKANSAS...LOUISIANA BORDER
EARLY TUESDAY...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. MUCH DRIER...COOLER...AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL DURING THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A CUT OFF LOW OVER TEXAS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION IN TIME TO INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO DROP DOWN INTO ARKANSAS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WARRANTED AT
LEAST SMALL CHANCE POPS...AT LEAST UNTIL DETAILS ARE MORE FINE TUNED
IN LATER MODEL RUNS. LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE THIS FRONT WILL BE
PUSHED SOUTH OF THE FA SOMETIME ON MONDAY. BOTTOM LINE...UNSETTLED
WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN NORTHWEST FLOW BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...DROPPING A FEW DEGREES BELOW AFTER THE FROPA.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     59  78  53  77 /  20  20   0   0
CAMDEN AR         64  80  58  78 /  30  30  30  20
HARRISON AR       54  73  47  73 /  10  10   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    61  78  54  78 /  30  20  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  63  80  56  78 /  30  20  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     65  82  59  78 /  30  30  30  20
MOUNT IDA AR      59  77  52  77 /  20  20  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  56  75  49  75 /  20  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        61  79  55  77 /  20  20   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     64  81  59  78 /  30  30  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   60  77  51  76 /  20  20  10  10
SEARCY AR         61  79  55  78 /  20  20  10  10
STUTTGART AR      64  80  58  78 /  30  20  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...55 / LONG TERM...61

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1122 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-081000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1122 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MENA...TO DUMAS.

INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MAXIMIZED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT REACH SEVERE LIMITS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...BRIEF...BUT INTENSE WIND GUSTS...AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN ARKANSAS ON
TUESDAY.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED...ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA...MAINLY BETWEEN 3 PM AND 9 PM MONDAY.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

55

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
317 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

ARZ037-040-072100-
POLK AR-SCOTT AR-
317 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN SCOTT AND NORTHERN POLK
COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

AT 316 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
A THUNDERSTORM WAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING 2 MILES EAST OF BLACK FORK
MTN...OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF MENA...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WALDRON...            MENA...
  QUEEN WILHELMINA SP...                      MOUNTAIN FORK...
  MORGAN SPRINGS...     LAKE WILHELMINA...    LAKE MENA...
  LAKE HINKLE...        BEAUCHAMP...          WINFIELD...
  ROCKY...              RICH MTN...           INK...
  HOWARD...             HON...                EAGLETON...
  BLACK FORK...         ACORN...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3496 9409 3457 9408 3456 9446 3488 9445
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 253DEG 13KT 3472 9433

44